Famous economist Ma Guangyuan is a guest "Guangda Lecture Hall": Next ten years, Chinese wealth will focus on four main lines

Jie Jie, a reporter from Henan Daily Client Li Peng

On August 18th, the 30th anniversary of the establishment of China Everbright Bank, the "Everbright Lecture Hall" hosted by the Zhengzhou Branch of Everbright Bank was held at the Zhengzhou Guangda Center of Longhu Financial Island, Zhengzhou. Dr. "China Economic and Investment Strategy under the Five Phase I" has made a wonderful sharing for investors.

Ma Guangyuan believes that from the short term, three "sharp arrows" need to stabilize the Chinese economy. Among them, it is a top priority to stabilize real estate; looking at the next ten years, Chinese wealth will focus on four main lines. source.

Three "sharp arrows" need to stabilize the Chinese economy

Since the beginning of this year, the factors that affect economic development in the country have become more complicated and severe. Russia and Ukraine conflict, global inflation, and Federal Reserve violent interest rate hikes have caused the global economy to have a decline. Increased, super -expected sudden factors have impacted the Chinese economy.

Especially in the second quarter, the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places brought significant downward pressure on the Chinese economy. Some important indicators fell. In the second quarter, GDP growth increased by 0.4%year -on -year, and GDP increased by 2.5%in the first half of the year.

In Ma Guangyuan's view, the short -term factors affecting the Chinese economy are consumption weakness, excessive prevention and control of individual places, and reduced marginal benefits in investment. In particular, real estate engines have a huge impact on the economy.

From a macro perspective, the world is currently in a "five -phase superimposed" cycle that is about the trend of epidemic and globalization. Corresponding to this, the Chinese economy is also in a "five -phase superposition" cycle: one It is the long tail impact period of the century epidemic. The impact of the epidemic on China's economy may be long -term; the second is the transformation period of the large economic cycle, from high speed to high -quality conversion leading to the comprehensive adjustment of the economic system; the third is "triple pressure" In the impact period, weakening demand, reduced supply, and weakening expectations are long -term; fourth is the annoying period of growth of the new economy, the confusion and pain of the new energy, digital economy, and the Internet; The departure of the industry and the stuck neck problem of high -end industries.

Ma Guangyuan believes that under the "Five Phase IPO", it is necessary to stabilize the Chinese economy to require three branches. One is to stabilize consumption, the other is to stabilize real estate, and the third is to stabilize expectations. Specifically, the first monetary policy can also be loose and increase monetary investment; the second fiscal policy should be increased, issued consumer coupons, or directly issue money to low -income groups; It should be paid attention to improving sexual needs; fourth, we must do everything possible to stabilize employment.

Stabilizing real estate is the top priority of stabilizing the economy

Real estate is pivotal to the Chinese economy. Since 1998, China's real estate industry has experienced long -term prosperity, housing prices have continued to rise, and the real estate industry has become one of the main engines to drive GDP growth.

According to statistics, the added value of the real estate industry in 2021 contributed about 12%to China's GDP, of which 7.5%came from real estate services and 4.5%came from real estate construction. More than 60%of Chinese residents' assets are in real estate, and land finance is difficult to change in a short period of time. The impact of real estate engines on China's economy is self -evident. Ma Guangyuan believes that stabilizing real estate is the top priority to stabilize the economy.

Ma Guangyuan believes that the current real estate industry has entered the "new cycle", one is the new economic cycle, from high growth to high quality; the other is the new cycle of population, and the population growth rate slows down; Fourth, the new cycle of the real estate industry, the high growth is over; the fifth is the new cycle of financial, the high growth of the currency is over; the sixth is the new cycle of asset allocation, and the real estate investment is specialized.

"The status of real estate as the pillar industry will not change, and real estate as the main tool for the allocation of ordinary people's wealth will not end. The demand for better people's pursuit of better living conditions has not changed. There are many changes in the market, but these three points have not changed.

In his opinion, the trend of housing prices in the future will show the situation of "exacerbation of polarization and strong core cities". In the future, the trend of green, low -carbon and intelligence in real estate will be unstoppable.

In the next ten years, the four main lines of China's wealth

Ma Guangyuan believes that in the next ten years, China's wealth will focus on four main lines, of which consumption will be the biggest power source of China's economy in the future.

The first main line is the digital economy. In 2020, the global digital economy scale reached US $ 32.6 trillion, an increase of 3%against the trend, accounting for 43.7%of GDP, an increase of 2.5%over 2019. It is expected to further increase in 2021. In 2020, the size of the United States digital economy reached US $ 13.6 trillion, and the scale of China's digital economy was US $ 5.4 trillion (39 trillion yuan). In 2030, my country's digital economy is expected to exceed the millions of dollars.

The second main line is the green economy. According to a report released by the International Energy Agency in 2021, before 2050, the global planned renewable energy investment must be increased by 30%to $ 131 trillion. Based on China's accounting for one -third of global carbon emissions, China needs to invest about 283 Trillion yuan. CICC calculates that by 2060, the total demand for green investment in my country will be 13.9 trillion.

Article 3 The main line is the core technology. Industrial Internet: In 2021, the value -added scale of the industrial Internet industry will reach 4.13 trillion yuan, accounting for GDP to increase to 3.67%. The Industrial Internet has gradually become an important support for national economic growth; The Blue Book shows that the global artificial intelligence core industry is expected to exceed the scale of trillion yuan in the past three years, and the real economy market has reached more than 200 trillion yuan. Article 4 The main line is the consumer economy. Morgan Stanley expects that China's private consumption scale will be more than $ 13 trillion in 2030. In the next ten years, the main driving force of China's consumption growth and structural changes comes from income, reform and population structure. China's per capita disposable annual income is expected to rise from now to $ 6,000 to $ 12,000 in 2030. In addition, there are industries related to new consumption and consumption upgrade.

It is reported that the Everbright Lecture Hall is a high -end cultural brand event organized by the Everbright Bank Zhengzhou Branch. Since the first lecture on August 18, 2019, each issue has been invited to the top economy, fiscal, taxation finance, corporate management, and policy categories at home and abroad. , Military and other experts and entrepreneurs come to, aiming to interpret wealth management, share successful experiences, discuss asset allocation, and build a platform for bank -enterprise communication and industry exchanges, provide strong smart support for the promotion of bank -enterprise communication and industry exchanges. Further help the high -quality development of Henan Province.

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