Financial supply -side structural reform arrows on the string

"China Economic Weekly" chief commentator Niu Wenxin

On August 10, the implementation of the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the second quarter of 2022. According to the previous laws, the A -share market generally observes the statement of China's monetary policy in the second half of the year, and this will judge China's overall currency tightness in the next period of time.

According to the report, the statement of monetary policy can be roughly divided into the following parts:

Strengthen the implementation of stable monetary policy, give full play to the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, take the initiative to respond, boost confidence, do a good job of cross -cyclical adjustment, take into account short -term and long -term, economic growth and price stability, internal equilibrium and external balance Essence

Insist on not engaging in "big water", not exceeding currency, and provide more powerful and more quality support for the real economy.

Maintain reasonable liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, make good use of policy development financial instruments, focus on supporting the construction of infrastructure, maintain a reasonable increase in currency supply and social financing scale, and strive to achieve the best results of economic operation realization. Essence

Pay close attention to changes in the inflation situation at home and abroad, continuously consolidate the favorable conditions for domestic food stable production and the stable operation of the energy market, and make proper responses to maintain the level of price.

Structural monetary policy tools actively do a good job of "addition", increase support for inclusive small and micro loans, support small and medium -sized enterprises to stabilize employment, and use good use of coal clean and efficient utilization, technological innovation, inclusive pension, transportation and logistics special loans and re -loans and re -loans of transportation and logistics Carbon emission reduction support tools, promote financial resources to key areas, weak links, and industries that are seriously affected by the epidemic, and to cultivate new economic growth points.

We will improve the formation of market -oriented interest rates and conduction mechanisms, optimize the central bank's policy interest rate system, strengthen the supervision of deposit interest rates, give play to the important role of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates, focus on stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities, give play to the effectiveness and guidance of the loan market quotation interest rate reform, promote reducing enterprises to reduce enterprises Comprehensive financing costs.

Pay close attention to the impact of the economic trend of major developed economies and the overflow of monetary policy adjustment, and take care of the balance of internal and external balance.

Adhere to the market supply and demand, refer to a basket of currency to regulate and manage the floating exchange rate system, adhere to the bottom line of thinking, strengthen the macro -prudential management of cross -border funds flow, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

In general, it is to grasp the "degree" of the relevant parts of the central banks such as internal and external, tightness, length, total and structure and structure, quantity and quality, economic growth and stability of prices, and their confrontation and unified dialectical relationships. Combined with the expressions of the central banks since this year, "everything is normal."

Of course, there is no change in normal. For example, there is a missing method in all expressions: maintaining M2 and social financing growth and nominal GDP growth rate.

In fact, this method is derived from a control formula that the central bank has always adopted: M2 growth rate = GDP growth+CPI growth+1%to 2%; of which "GDP growth+CPI growth rate" is the name growth rate of GDP. Then why are there more than 1%to 2%? This was actually the early days of China's marketization reform. The currency supply corresponding to a large amount of asset monetization process, but after the process of monetization of China's assets was basically completed, this "small tail" disappeared into the consideration of the central bank.

Nevertheless, is the consideration of "M2 growth rate = GDP growth+CPI growth rate" suitable? Now, many economists have asked this question. There is no doubt that monetary policy is an important regulatory tool for the national economy. When the economy is weak, the monetary policy should be easier, and the corresponding M2 growth rate should be higher, and vice versa. However, if the central bank's regulation process, the growth rate of M2 is restricted by the nominal GDP growth rate, that is, if the central bank only regulates the M2 growth rate based on the height of the GDP, then this control will lead to the actual situation of China. GDP stall? After all, what stabilizes the economy is the actual GDP growth, not the nominal GDP growth. Especially at the moment, China's CPI is risky by the impact of the international market price. It will also affect the Chinese nominal GDP. If the CPI is too high, the nominal GDP is too high, which forcibly tighten the currency. Then China's actual GDP growth rate Will it be suppressed, will this contrary to the overall goal of steady growth?

Stable economy requires monetary policy to take the initiative. The central bank can remove this expression and promise to take the initiative, which is worthy of recognition.

However, there are different opinions on the launch of "insisting not to engage in 'big water drilling' and not exceeding currency". There is a vague side of the expressions of "big water drilling" and "no currency". I don't know if this "water" refers to the basic currency, or does it mean M0/M1/M2? "Big Water Manflies" should refer to M2 too fast and the number is too high. The reason for this result is precisely because the basic currency is too small. This distinction and the dialectical relationship between them have not been accurately reflected in the so -called "not engaged in large water irrigation" or "no currency".

Such "confusion" can cause negative effects. For example, whenever the ratio is reduced, interest rate cuts (or increase, interest rate increases), put or return MLF, even increase or reduce short -term reverse repurchase strength -this type is only about the basic currency collection, or just related to the funding period of the funding period. , Instead of increasing or lowering the M2 growth rate, the central bank behavior appears. Some people with ulterior motives will immediately shout "water release" and "water collection", which will lead to misleading investors in unknown. Monetary policy expression requires science and accuracy, and try to avoid it. To better create favorable development conditions for the real economy, we must attach great importance to long -term basic currency supply.

Not long ago, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Yi Huiman wrote in the "Seeking" magazine: "In recent years, my country has maintained a reasonable liquidity, the market interest rates have declined, and the growth rate of social financing is basically matched with the nominal growth rate of GDP. . But in general, my country does not lack funds but lacks capital, especially the problem of lack of innovation capital is more prominent. In the case of increasing downward pressure on investment growth in traditional industries, this structural contradiction is even more prominent. "

Does the financial market that "not lack of funds but lack of capital" meets the requirements of the real economy on the financial structure? Can it support the high -quality development of China's economy? In view of this, the financial management authorities should work together to solve the problem of "no shortage of funds but lack of capital".

Is the central bank working hard? Everyone should have noticed that in the recent reports of monetary policy implementation, there are some new trends. For example, in accordance with the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the stability of the word, seeking progress in stability, complete, accurate, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the establishment of a new development pattern, deepen supply -side structural reforms, build a modern central bank system system , Improve the modern monetary policy framework, do a good job of implementing policies and measures, focus on stabilizing employment and stable prices, play a key role in effective investment, and consolidate the trend of economic recovery. "

What is the "modern central bank system" that the central bank is building? And what is the "modern monetary policy framework" that is to be sound? This is probably the core of China's financial supply -side structural reform.

(This article published in "China Economic Weekly" 2022, No. 15)

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