How to stabilize the source of wealth in 5 provinces and cities in the southeast

The cover of the 15th issue of "China Economic Weekly" in 2022

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Yao Kun | Beijing report

Recently, economic data of the southeast coastal economic provinces have attracted widespread attention on the Internet.

In the first half of 2022, the national GDP increased by 2.5%year-on-year, while Jiangsu (1.6%), Shanghai (-5.7%), and Guangdong (2.0%) in the developed provinces and cities in the southeast coastal economy and cities lag behind the national average in the first half of the year. Zhejiang (Zhejiang (Zhejiang (Zhejiang ( 2.5%) is flat with the whole country, and only Fujian (4.6%) surpasses the national average.

The above five provinces and cities of the above southeast coast accounted for more than 1/3 of the country's GDP, and its economic growth rate naturally attracted much attention. On the other hand, the southeast coastal economic provinces accounted for a large amount of data from various economies and fiscal and taxes in the country. In recent years, some data are in recent years. The proportion of the proportion has continued to expand, which has also made the economic gap between the coastal economic provinces and the central and western provinces that have repeatedly become a hot topic.

How to think of the economic growth rate of the first half of this year of the southeast coastal economic province? In the context of solidly promoting common prosperity and accelerating the construction of a unified unified market in the country and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, how can economic provinces drive coordinated development in other provinces? How to continue to stir up the national development and stabilize the economy, and play the main role of ensuring national financial resources? With these issues, "China Economic Weekly" interviewed experts in the field of regional economics and development economics.

Is the economic growth rate of the southeast coast slowed down?

Factors: its own scale, epidemic, international situation, industrial transformation

For the economic data of the southeast coastal economic province in the first half of the year, the perspective of experts is not completely consistent.

"This year's external influence is mainly two, one is the US interest rate hike, and the other is the Russian and Ukraine conflict, right?" Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, told the reporter of "China Economic Weekly". He believes that external influence is not the main factor: the US interest rate hikes showed signs of recession in the global economy in the short term, but did not significantly affect China's exports; Not as big as everyone thinks.

Su Jian believes that the growth rate of large coastal economic provinces is lower than the national average. The first reason is that its size is large, followed by the affected affected.

"First of all, because developed provinces have grown at a high speed for many years, the scale is getting larger and larger, and the speed will naturally fall. There is such a trend. Even if there is no epidemic, it will generally be lower than the national average. The influence of the epidemic is Shanghai. "He said.

Xiao Jincheng, former director of the Institute of Land Development and Regional Economics of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the changes in the international economic situation in squeezing the southeast coastal areas. The labor costs, land costs, and environmental protection thresholds are greatly improved. It is difficult for the development model of relying on large forwards and economic growth to drive economic growth, and some production capacity has been transferred from the southeast coast to Southeast Asia and African countries. At the same time, the new crown pneumonia's epidemic has impacted the global supply chain, which has a greater impact on the southeast coast, especially the Yangtze River Delta.

Zeng Gang, the dean of the East China Normal University City Institute of Urban Development, believes that the primary factor affecting the economic performance of the southeast coastal provinces is the transformation of the industrial structure; the second is the suppression of China's strategic emerging industries in the West. These industries have developed rapidly in the southeast coastal provinces; The third is the impact of the epidemic.

"Industrial transformation and upgrading are the most critical." Zeng Gang said, "The industrial structure adjustment of the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta is still very large. , Its scale has shrunk sharply. These traditional industries used to have a relatively large part in the southeast province. After large -scale relocation, the economic growth of the southeast coastal provinces will undoubtedly slow down. However, it must be pointed out that from the expansion of scale to high -quality development The transformation is a painful process that sacrifice some local economic growth rates, but this is the stage of transition and upgrading that must be experienced, and it is a trouble for growth. "

East Coast aerial photography Xiamen panoramic view

Not confrontation, but cooperation

Coastal areas to drive underdeveloped areas

Under almost all of the posts discussing the economic gap between the economic gap between the southeast coast and the economic gap between the provinces of the central and western regions, there are controversy of netizens from various places, often with gunpowder. For example, some netizens in the coastal economic provinces believe that the large economic provinces have been "blood transfusion" for underdeveloped provinces through transfer payment and other methods, and even believe that a few large economic provinces have "supported" many other provinces; while some netizens in other provinces have It is believed that the large economic province has "occupied the cheapness of the policy" and has "absorbed" various resources such as labor, funds, and energy, and should bear more responsibilities to drive the development of other provinces.

"Many netizens may be influenced by some statistical data and emotions. In fact, a lot of knowledge is incorrect." Xiao Jincheng said to the reporter of "China Economic Weekly", "If the account is settled, the historical account should be calculated. The prices of production factors such as coal and electricity produced in the west are provided at the planned price. Consumer goods produced in the eastern part have entered the market at the market price. Until now, the price of energy is still controlled by the state. Interests."

Xiao Jincheng believes that the development of the southeast coast, in addition to the location advantage of the sea, is indeed inseparable from the policy of policy. In the southeast coast? 14 open cities are also along the coast? It is to allow the coastal areas to develop first, and then drive the development of the central and western regions. Therefore, it is reasonable to drive and support underdeveloped areas in coastal areas. " In the ecology contribution, some contribute to the economy, the ecology of the western region is relatively fragile, and protecting the ecology is contributing. "Xiao Jincheng introduced that the North -South cooperation model in the 1970s was" South Grain North "and" "North Coal Southern Transport", the food in the south is transported to the north, and the coal of coal in the north is transported to the south. Now, rice and corn in the northeast should be transported to the south because a large amount of land in the south is used in industrial development and urban construction. "This is also a nationwide overall plan. It is impossible for a province to be completely self -sufficient."

Zeng Gang believes that there is more cooperative relationship between the southeast coast and the Mainland. The Mainland provides a huge consumer goods market for the southeast coast, but in turn, the southeast coast also provides the mainland with the market for export labor, raw materials and energy. Compared with imports, raw materials and energy produced in the Mainland do not have the advantages of price and quality.

"Like some provinces in Southwest, in the 1990s, the most important local income was not from the operation of enterprises in the province, but from the remittance of migrant workers in their hometown. For many migrant workers, they could not fully employment in their hometown. , Employment, it is better to go to work along the coast and return money back. Isn't it better? "Zeng Gang said," Through personnel and commodity exchanges between provinces, the comparative advantages are fully exerted. And it has also achieved win -win cooperation. That is to say, in the whole, there is no phenomenon that I am dating and me. "

Let the market allocate resources and let all places be benign competition

Many experts interviewed believe that the key to coordinated development between different provinces is to allow the market to play its due role in resource allocation.

"It is still necessary to build a large unified market in the country, so that the production factors can flow freely, and then let the market determine the price of resources. Settlement. "Su Jian said that he believed that to accelerate the construction of a large unified market in the country, truly allow the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation, determine the flow of human and capital, etc., and will form a benign competitive relationship between various provinces. "That is to say, if the employment environment of this place is not good, or the business environment is not good, the company is unwilling to invest, and it will force all localities to improve its business environment and the employment environment and build various systems. Do not restrict the flow of factors, some places may lack the motivation to improve the business environment. "

Su Jian believes that in the process of allocating resources in the market, the government must also actively intervene in the place where the intervention is, such as eliminating the obstacles of labor flow, and tilting to the west in infrastructure such as highways and railways.

Zeng Gang, who has lived in Germany for many years, explained that the national unified market in the country should also be accelerated. "Cars that do not need in Germany can be sold to Turkey, a non -European country. The transaction is very easy and there is no problem. At least a few years ago, the cars bought in Shanghai or Zhejiang on the board, or second -hand car transactions, are still very difficult. There are many restricted policies and exclusive measures for local market access. "

In Zeng Gang's opinion, the economic exchanges and integration between provinces are not sufficient. In some places to protect or divide the administrative boundary division, "for example, some Chinese herbal medicines in a southwest province are operated according to the" unveiled list ". Who do it? The efficiency will be much higher. Now it is just a "unveiled list of the list" in the province, and it has not achieved the opening of each other in various provinces. "He believes that the reason why Shanghai Pudong develops Soon, it was because of recruiting cadres and staff in the country at the time, and the secrets of the rapid development of Kunshan and Shenzhen were also the same.

It is not comprehensive to see the proportion of total economic aggregate simply

Coordinated development depends on the per capita indicators

If all kinds of elements flow freely according to market laws, will it further gather to a relatively developed southeast coastal economic province, forming more super urban agglomerations in the southeast coast, and will the western -developed provinces become more and more amazing?

Xiao Jincheng believes that this trend is very obvious and it is not easy to change. The proportion of the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei in various types of economic data will become higher and higher, which is also in line with the principles of space economics.

However, he also believes that looking at the coordinated development between provinces, it cannot be simply understood as the convergence of GDP and the total population of the population or the proportion of the country. How fast you develop, how much is my development, how much you account for, and I have to pay more attention to the changes in the per capita GDP and per capita income of various provinces. "

"The development of the economy cannot be separated from labor, and the flow of labor will bring changes in population. The concentration of economic factors and the concentration of population should be synchronized. GDP accounts for high proportion of provinces, and the proportion of population should also increase simultaneously. On the other hand, Without the population of the province with a population, the per capita GDP will increase. In this way, the gap between the per capita GDP per capita in various regions will tend to shrink. At the same time, the level of public services in the underdeveloped areas can be increased by transfer payment, such as education, medical care, pension, and eastern coastal areas Basically equal, so that the regions have achieved coordinated development. "Xiao Jincheng said," The current problem is that labor transfer does not bring a synchronous transfer of population. The family members of migrant workers include spouses, children and parents. The population is not matched. Migrant workers working in the eastern region have not enjoyed public services that are basically equal to local residents. "He specially reminded the frontier regions to accelerate development through national support, improve the infrastructure, optimize the business environment, gather industries, and gather industries, and to gather industries, gather industries, and gather industries. Increase employment positions to make the population decrease and increase.

Su Jian also believes that all kinds of elements including labor force are likely to gather further to the southeast coast, but he also reminds everyone not to pay attention to the total data of the provinces. Then the land resources and other natural resources cannot be moved, right? This means that the natural resources of these areas have increased, so if you look at the total amount, these central and western provinces may have a decline in the proportion, but you look at the per capita per capita If GDP, they may rise. "

He believes that there are too few freshwater resources in some parts of the west, and the ecology is fragile. The development of industries is easy to destroy the environment. After the population migration, the per capita resources have increased, and the development of tourism is easier to become rich.

Zeng Gang reminded everyone that not only should we pay attention to the coordinated development between the province and the province, but also do not ignore the huge development gap between different areas in the province. You should pay special attention to the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. Some underdeveloped provinces are also large provinces of grain production. If they can make farmers rich through rural revitalization, and through industrial modernization transformation, enterprises in underdeveloped regions have stronger competitiveness, and naturally help solve the problem of uneven development in different provinces.

(This article published in "China Economic Weekly" 2022, No. 15)

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