It is a drink to stimulate the economy to stimulate the economy!Vice Chairman of the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, Xiao Yuan Enterprise, issued a post to judge the main challenge of the world economy in the future

The Vice Chairman of the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, Xiao Yuan Enterprise recently wrote in "China Finance" that in the future, problems such as turbulence and debt risks of international financial markets, rising debt risks, continuous inflation rates, and how to balance the tightening policy and economic growth may become a world economic development facing the face of world economic development facing the face of world economic development. The main challenge.

The article shows that at present, the inflation rate of many major economies in the world has continued to rise, reaching high positions in recent decades. In June 2022, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 9.1%year -on -year, and after May, it reached the highest record since November 1981. At the same time, the inflation rate in the euro zone rose to 8.6%in June, and the inflation rates of the three major European economic engines in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom were as high as 7.6%, 5.8%, and 9.4%, far exceeding the average level of nearly ten years. The inflation rate of Japan's core consumers reached 2.2%, which was 2%higher than the Bank of Japan for 3 consecutive months. The inflation rate of some developing countries has exceeded 10%, and the inflation rates in Sri Lanka, Turkey and other countries are even as high as 59%and 80%, respectively.

"Residents of residents in some countries have severely difficulty in inflation due to high inflation. After the global experience that lasted for many years, high inflation has attracted much attention again. As food and energy prices continue to rise, the attitude of various countries has the attitude of various countries. Special attention with policy orientation. "Xiao Yuan's enterprise wrote.

Xiao Yuan Enterprise said that it was to stimulate the economy to stimulate the economy in the long run. Inflation may indeed boost the economy and reduce unemployment in the short term. But in the long run, under the influence of "currency neutrality", the only result of excess currency investment will only be the rise in price level, and the actual output growth will not be affected. Macroeconomic decisions should try their best to avoid this situation.

Previously, the major developed economies of inflation were extremely obvious

Xiao Yuanxin believes that there are many reasons for high inflation in the major developed economies. The direct causes come from the supply side, such as special factors such as the new crown pneumonia and the Ukrainian crisis caused the global supply chain, the industrial chain, and the supply of agricultural products and commodities. Hommented, etc. But fundamental speaking, it was still due to the two responses of the international financial crisis in 2008 and the two responses of the new crown pneumonia since 2020, the government deficit and currency supply have increased significantly.

"In the past few decades, the main developed economies have not obvious perception of inflation, and even believed that inflation has completely disappeared from economic life. Reverse, inflation has become an important concern in all aspects of political, economic and social life. "Xiao Yuan Enterprise said that the cause of this change is multi -faceted. First, the sensitivity differences between different income people; the other is the change in the price of basic necessities; the third is the impact of asset price factors.

Xiao Yuan Enterprise said that the increase in residents' income, the proportion of funds directly used for consumption expenditure decreased, and the proportion of investment is getting higher and higher. People are not only paying attention to products with relatively large weights in CPI baskets, and prices other than daily consumption such as assets have also increasingly affected residents' willingness to buy and pay. Since the international financial crisis, under the quantitative easing policy for more than ten years, the asset prices of major developed economies have generally risen, and the increase in capital markets and real estate prices far exceeds the necessity of life.

"The related wealth effect deeply affects residents 'consumption behavior and improves the tolerance of residents' inflation." Xiao Yuan Enterprise said, but with the exit of excessive loose monetary policy, the stock and real estate market have begun to adjust. As of the end of June 2022, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell 15%, 21%, and 30%, respectively, France, Germany and Japanese stock indexes fell 17%, 20%, and 8%. The growth rates slowed from 5.5%and 3.2%to 3.6%and 1.7%, respectively. The shrinking of residents' book wealth also makes more people more sensitive to inflation.

Relying on inflation to stimulate the economy in the long run, drinking and quenching thirst

Xiao Yuan Enterprise said that it was to stimulate the economy to stimulate the economy in the long run. Inflation may indeed boost the economy and reduce unemployment in the short term. But in the long run, under the influence of "currency neutrality", the only result of excess currency investment will only be the rise in price level, and the actual output growth will not be affected. Macroeconomic decisions should try their best to avoid this situation.

Xiao Yuan Enterprise said that relying on inflation to stimulate the economy is not conducive to expanding social reproduction, which will hinder transformation and upgrading and structural reforms, and in the long run, it will be unsustainable.

High -inflation means that the overall price level of society has risen sharply. In the process, the rise in raw materials is usually higher than that of terminal products. For example, since the second quarter of 2022, the month -on -year year -on -year increase in PPI has reached 11%, 10.8%, and 11.3%, respectively, which is higher than the increase in CPI 8.3%, 8.6%, and 9.1%during the same period.

"At the micro level, the profit of the producer is constantly squeezed, the power of the reappearance weakened, and is unwilling to provide consumers with more products. The macro level has led to the transfer of industrial structure or even the industrial hollow. In the end, industrial imbalances and economic growth rates may occur Fall. "Xiao Yuan enterprise said.

Inflation stimulates the economy to hinder transformation and upgrading and structural reforms. Xiao Yuan's enterprise believes that the economic prosperity formed by excessive currency is essentially false and prosperous, and it highlights the virtual high of the nominal asset prices. In fact, if it is too dependent on this false prosperity, the inherent driving force of economic growth, that is, the increase in labor productivity may slow down significantly. False prosperity has inhibited the motivation of economic and social progress. According to statistics, the entire factors measured by the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom measured in the form of Solo's surplus. After 10 years after the international financial crisis in 2008, 6.5, 2.2 and 13.6 percentage points were reduced compared with the 10 years before the crisis. Xiao Yuan Enterprise said that although this shows that through the implementation of extremely loose monetary policies, the main developed economies have emerged on the surface of the crisis, but the damage and distortion of the real economy has not been effectively repaired.

Inflation stimulates the economy in the long run. Xiao Yuanxin believes that injecting a lot of liquidity in the short term may temporarily drive the economic growth rate, but it will lead to rising prices, and the leverage of the market's main body will also be "rising in water" with loose financial conditions, which contains great potential risks.

"The scale of debt cannot be expanded infinitely. Once the policy disturbances or even turns, it may face the" Minski moment '. "He wrote that at present, the growth prospects of major developed economies have weakened, but in order to resist inflation, a tightening policy has to be adopted Essence High debt that has been promoted by long -term loose environment has become the "Sword of Damocles".

Emerging markets cannot be spared. The article shows that according to statistics, as of early July, the average depreciation of the currency exchange rate of emerging market countries reached 5.24%during the year, and the total foreign debt was 2.6 times that of foreign exchange reserves, reaching the high position in recent years. The Sri Lankan administration has announced bankruptcy due to "non -debt debts", and Bangladesh also applied for emergency loan support from the International Monetary Fund. The exchange rate depreciation of Argentina and Turkey reached 23.3%and 16.5%, respectively.

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