Nancai fast comments: the big economic province bravely picks the beam, Guangdong is responsible

Chen Yijun (Dean and Professor of the Double Circulation Development Research Institute of the Greater Bay Area of ​​Guangdong University of Finance and Economics)

On August 16th, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the premier of the State Council, hosted a symposium on the main person in charge of the provincial government in Shenzhen to analyze the economic situation and put forward requirements for the next economic work. Main emphasis on four points:

The first is to focus on stabilizing employment and stable prices, maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, and solidly guarantee basic people's livelihood. The meeting pointed out that the economy continued to resume development in July, but there were still slight fluctuations. The momentum is about to start. At present, the node that is the most stable in the economy must consolidate the foundation of economic recovery development with the sense of urgency of the time. It is necessary to give full play to the two enthusiasm of the central and local governments, adhering to the development of all problems in my country, in -depth implementation of a policy of stabilizing the economy, rationally increase the macro policy intensity in response to the new situation, promote reform and opening up, focus on stabilizing employment and stable prices, maintain the economy Run in a reasonable range to ensure basic people's livelihood.

Second, the big economic province must be brave. The four coastal provinces contributed more than 60 % of the local finances to the central government, and they must complete the financial task. The meeting emphasized that the total economic volume of six large economic provinces accounted for 45%of the country, and it was the "pillar" of the national economic development. Economic provinces must be bravely picked up to play a key role in stable economic support. Implement the policy of stabilizing the economy, tap its own policy potential, protect market entities to stimulate vitality, ensure the main logistics roads, smooth microcirculation, and stabilize the industrial chain supply chain. The stability of the economy is also stable. The four coastal provinces in the six economic provinces contributed more than 60 % of the local finances to the central government, and they must complete the financial task. The central government has basically issued the local transfer payment. The provinces must adhere to the government's tight life, revitalize the financial stock funds, maintain the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure, increase financial sinking, and ensure that the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, especially the basic livelihood expenditure, and the salary of the base layer. Published.

The third is to focus on the main body of the market. It is necessary to make good use of local special bonds to promote project construction in the third quarter to form more physical workload. The meeting emphasized that the market subject is stable, and the economy and employment can be stable. The number of market entities in 6 large economic provinces accounted for more than 40%of the country, contributed more than 40%of employment. It is necessary to increase the rescue efforts of helping enterprises in combination, help them restore their vitality, continue to be the "protagonist" in attracting employment, and strive to stabilize the employment of local and migrant workers. Insufficient demand is a prominent contradiction facing economic operation. There are many people in economic provinces. We must find more ways to promote consumption, expand consumption such as cars, and support housing rigidity and improvement. The current local special debt balance has not yet reached the debt limit. It is necessary to revitalize the debt limit space in accordance with the law and make good use of the issued local special debt and policy development financial instruments. All localities should accelerate the construction of mature projects, form more physical workloads in the third quarter, and drive effective investment and corresponding consumption.

The fourth is to promote higher levels of openness. The meeting pointed out that the reason why economic provinces have today's development achievements are the fundamental motivation in reform and opening up. We must continue to explore in reform, deepen the reform of "decentralization of service", and greater stimulation of market vitality and social creativity. Openness is the only way to make full use of the two markets and two types of resources and improve international competitiveness. The import and export of 6 large economic provinces and the use of foreign capital are close to 60 % of the country. It is necessary to promote higher levels of opening up, stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, and achieve mutual benefit and win -win results.

This symposium is a concrete implementation of the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on July 28. The meeting analyzed the current economic situation, and emphasized that when deploying economic work in the second half of the year, it was emphasized that maintaining economic operations in a reasonable range and striving to achieve the best results. Economic provinces must be bravely picked up, and provinces with conditions must strive to complete the expected goals of economic and social development. It can be seen that the economic province should be proposed at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee of the Communist Party of China last month, and it is now further implemented.

It should be seen that after half a month, special selection of this seminar (last time in Fuzhou) was held in Shenzhen, Guangdong. According to the overall request of this symposium, the main goal of Guangdong's economic work in the second half of the year, while considering the efforts to achieve its own economic growth return to normal track, must also take the bravery and bear the responsibility of the economic province in the economic stability recovery. Important content is set.

Guangdong last year's GDP exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, exceeding one -tenth of the National GDP 11.14 trillion yuan. According to our preliminary research, in general, the economy of Guangdong will have a strong rise in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the regional GDP increased by 2 % and 0.7 % in the second quarter, higher than 0.4 % of the country, indicating that the economic recovery energy of Guangdong was increasing. If you can continue to maintain this momentum, and work hard to stabilize the economic market while coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic, it is expected that Guangdong's GDP growth throughout the year will basically achieve the predetermined goals at the beginning of the year. At the same time, an increase of a percentage point can increase the growth rate of more than 0.1%for the national economic market. Therefore, the economic work in Guangdong in the second half of the year must further advance in steady progress, strive to achieve rapid economic growth to return to normal tracks, strive to achieve the best and optimal results, and make due contributions to the national economic growth.

(This article is a series of contents of the Guangdong Provincial Macroeconomic Research Group's "Economic Situation Analysis of the Economic Situation in the first half of 2022 and the Outlook Report in the first half of 2022".))

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