Yang Delong: boosting the growth rate of consumption is the key to promoting the economic recovery in the second half of the year

Yang Delong | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

On Wednesday, August 17th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities were shocked and rebounded. Recently, after a period of shock adjustment, the broad market began to rise. The new energy sector continues to perform strong performance leading the market rebound, and the consumer sector is gradually stabilizing and rebounding. With the gradual recovery of my country's economy, the capital market as a barometer of the economy will usher in a chance to rise. The consumer sector that was previously suppressed by the epidemic was also expected to have a recovery rebound after the epidemic was effectively controlled.

New energy is not only in line with the direction of policy support, but also less affected by the epidemic, so new energy has led two cities many times this year. In 2019, I proposed that new energy replace traditional energy is the general trend. It is suggested that investors can consider layout of clean energy sectors, and new energy is also in line with Buffett's "long -slope thick snow" theory, that is, investment is like snowballs. The key is to find thick thickness. Snow and long hillside, new energy is in line with the conditions of large development space, fast performance, and long -term investment value. The second quarterly report of the Qianhai Kaiser Clean Energy Fund I managed has been announced, focusing on the new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and other industries.

In terms of monetary policy, the central bank's sudden interest rate cutting brought a reasons to the market. On August 15, the central bank released news: In order to maintain the banking system, the liquidity of the banking system was reasonable and abundant, the People's Bank of China launched a 400 billion yuan interim loan convenience operation and the 2 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation. 2.75% and 2%, which fully meets the needs of financial institutions. With the reduction of MLF's interest rate, it also indicates that the LPR quotation this month will make a high probability of simultaneously lowering ten base points, indicating that the linked mortgage interest rate will also have room to reduce. According to Wan De data, there were 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expiration on August 15th, and 600 billion yuan MLF expired in August. In comparison, the amount of operation of MLF's operation has been reduced, mainly to release the central bank's deep meaning of the central bank to protect the real economy, stabilize currency and wide credit. Judging from the recently announced data, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 has remained at a high level, hitting a six -year high. However, new credit data and social finance data are lower than expected. This reflects that although the amount of money is sufficient, the demand for financing in the real economy is relatively weak, the willingness to consume residents will decline, and the willingness to invest in corporate investment will decline. Therefore, under the current wide currency, certain measures need to be taken to boost consumer confidence, boost the financing needs of the real economy, stimulate the vitality of the market entity, and promote the steady recovery of consumer investment.

Under the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy, the market liquidity has maintained ample state since April. The main market interest rates such as overnight capital interest rates, seven -day capital interest rates, and one -year bank -deposit yields continued to decline. Especially since the beginning of August, interest rates have further declined, reaching the lowest level since this year. This shows that in terms of the current currency market, there is abundant liquidity, but the market for many funds in the banks now has not really entered the real economy. Some companies are still difficult to financing, especially the real estate industry chain with relatively long industrial chain. As a key link of wide credit, the development of loans and mortgage loans in the second quarter of development, and the overall downward pressure continued to increase. Individual real estate interruptions in July also made real estate sales weakened. Residents' willingness to leverage to continue to slug. This reflected in the long -term and long -term resident loans in the past July. In terms of credit investment, further efforts should be strengthened in the later period so that enterprises can have more opportunities in financing, which is conducive to stabilizing economic growth.

Since the beginning of this year, my country has been affected by super -expected factors, and economic growth has fallen significantly, especially on the second quarter. How to reverse the decline in economic growth and boosting the confidence of investors and consumers is crucial. Globally, the prospects of global economic growth have been significantly weakened. In Europe and the United States, the highest inflation in the past 40 years has to take measures to retreat, which has further decreased the efforts of economic growth. Some economists even worry that the US economy may fall into a state of recession. This has a greater impact on the global economy. of. Generally speaking, in the face of inflation, the Fed's monetary policy is difficult to turn. The interest rate hikes are still a policy measure that the Fed will take. It may be at the beginning of next year. Rating. Before the FOMC meeting was held in September, the CPI and PPI data released by the United States showed that the inflation pressure may be bottomed out, which caused the market to predict the Federal Reserve to suspend or even reverse the policy position of continuing to raise interest rates. The probability of 50 basis points in a monthly interest rate hike is 55%. Although some investors expect the Federal Reserve to slow down the rhythm of interest rate hikes under the slowdown of economic growth. Recently, U.S. stocks have also rebounded. Once I rate hikes in September, it will still have a significant suppression of the stock market. Essence In terms of commodity prices, the Fed's interest rate hikes reduced the market's liquidity and also changed the trend of rising oil prices. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also expected to stop fire through negotiations in the second half of the year. In this way, the impact on the price of commodity commodity will gradually decrease, which is conducive to global inflation.

Under the circumstances of global economic growth and high inflation, the external environment facing my country is not optimistic.We rely on the growth of investment and consumption to increase the total amount of internal circulation. After the epidemic is effectively controlled, the epidemic control measures are more scientific and accurate, it will reduce the impact on people's normal work and life, effectively coordinate the relationship between epidemic prevention and control and economic growthIt seems crucial.Consumption is now the most important engine of my country's economic growth. In 2021, the consumption contribution to GDP reached 65%, far exceeding the contribution of investment and exports. The growth rate of consumption is expected to rise significantly.Consumer consumption confidence will gradually rise.This reflects that in the capital market, it will also bring opportunities for consumer stock valuation repair. The rise in consumption growth is crucial to the economic recovery in the second half of the year.Responsible editor: Tao Jiyan | Review: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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