International oil prices have fallen to the lowest level since January, and the market focuses on the progress of the Yue nuclear negotiations

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang Beijing report

After a brief rebound, international oil prices have once again entered a continuous decline. WTI crude oil prices have returned to the level in late January, and Brent crude oil prices have fallen to the same level in mid -February.

The weakened data of major global economies, exacerbating the market's concerns about economic recession, which affects the expectations of the prospects of crude oil demand, and oil prices continue to fall from a high level. The recent weakness of oil prices is obvious. WTI crude oil prices have repeatedly tentatively tentatively tentatively tentatively returned to $ 95/barrel.

Market analysis agencies have pointed out that the current situation of crude oil supply is still continuous, and the support of oil prices is relatively stable. However, as Iran's nuclear negotiations have made new progress again, the market has also had expectations for the lifting of Iran's crude oil products to enter the market, which further caused pressure on oil prices. Iran is one of the few major oil -producing countries that can be increased significantly in the current market. The progress of negotiations between the Iranian nuclear agreement has become the largest variable in the recent crude oil market.

International oil prices hit a new low since January

In early August, the international oil price fell all the way to stabilize the rebound. After the price of WTI crude oil futures fell below $ 90/barrel, the maximum rebounded to the top of $ 95/barrel. Brent crude oil once touched the $ 100/barrel.

After a brief rebound, international oil prices reappeared to decline and showed signs of continuous decline.

As of the morning of August 17th, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in September fell 3.22%to close at $ 86.53/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil delivered in October fell 2.9%, closed at $ 92.34/USA bucket.

This price once again refreshed the minimum closing price of crude oil since August. At this point, international oil prices have been exhausted in the end of the Russian -Ukraine conflict in late February, and there is a slight decline: WTI crude oil has set the lowest closing price since January 25, and Brent crude oil is also as in mid -February in mid -February. The price is flat.

Since February of this year, in the context of the continuous geopolitical conflict, the sanctions on Russian oil products in Europe and the United States have exacerbated the structural supply of the global energy market. In the panic of market emotions, it has quickly pushed the price of oil. March rushed to a maximum of $ 130/barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil rose up to $ 139.13/barrel.

Since then, international oil prices have been significantly cooling, but they still have basically remained above $ 100/barrel. In early June this year, with the persistence of global inflation and the trend of commodity price increases, international oil prices rose to top of $ 120/barrel. Since late June, the overall commodity price has fallen at a high level, and the price of crude oil has begun to fluctuate significantly.

With the continuous decline of international crude oil prices, refined oil prices have continued to reduce. Since late June, domestic refined oil prices have ushered in a wave of "four consecutive declines", of which gasoline retail limits have fallen by 1110 yuan/ton, and the cumulative price of diesel retail price has fallen by 1070 yuan/ton.

According to the calculation of Grand Commodity Information Agency, as of August 17, the sixth working day of the price adjustment cycle of this round of refined oil products, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was -3.7%, and the corresponding price of gasoline and diesel retail was reduced by 190 yuan/ton. Essence Reception of refined oil products is expected to usher in the "five consecutive declines".

Demand becomes the core of market attention

At present, Russia's crude oil production and export volume remain firm, but US output growth is slow. Compared with the market's concerns about the supply side in the first half of the year, the current concerns about economic growth and the forecast of demand prospects have become the core of the crude oil market transaction.

For the future trend of the oil market, the predictions of energy institutions have also had obvious differences. In the newly released monthly report of the oil market, Organization (OPEC) Organization (OPEC) continued to reduce the expected expectations of oil demand throughout the year. OPEC pointed out that there is a significant downlink risk of global economy at present. The supply and demand of the oil market in the second quarter is close to balance. It is expected that the global oil market will enter the excess supply in the third quarter.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that hot weather and the rise in electricity prices and gas prices have stimulated many economies from natural gas to oil consumption, and the amount of oil consumption is increasing. IEA predicts that global oil demand will continue to grow, reaching 101.8 billion barrels per day in 2023, more than 2020.

CITIC Futures pointed out that the high decline in oil prices has reduced the risk of inflation in the United States, the probability of the Fed's radical interest rate hike decreases, and the pressure of accelerating the decline in the US economy is relieved. Although the risk of rapid decline fell temporarily, the pressure of mild decline is still large, and the decline cycle has a significant inhibitory effect on the prices of commodities. Before the next round of recovery cycle, it is expected that oil prices will continue to be under pressure.

CITIC Futures believes that there is still room for the focus of oil prices. In the second half of the year, the risk of economic recession will further drag the oil prices from the perspective of the cycle. Unless the geopolitical conflict expands the supply of supply, the price of oil may continue to rise.

The market focuses on the Iran nuclear agreement negotiation

Recently, concerns about the prospects of economic growth have caused pressure on oil prices, but the structural tension of the oil supply side has become the bottom support of oil prices, and both ends of oil prices are facing pressure. However, the Iranian nuclear issue negotiation will bring potential variables to the market, so it has also become the focus of attention from all parties.

The commodity information agency Longzhong Information pointed out that the Iranian nuclear issue negotiation is an important event in the recent crude oil market. The incident is expected to appear in the crude oil market, and there is a risk of further downside in oil prices.Although the EU statement will continue to promote Iran's nuclear negotiations in the next few weeks, and Iran also stated that it will respond to the "text" proposed by the EU in the next few days, the United States has not yet made a clear statement, and the final negotiation results are still uncertain.Therefore, it is difficult for Iranian oil to lift the ban overnight.

Huatai Futures analysis pointed out that there are still differences in the current US -Ichina's key negotiation clauses, but it does not rule out the possibility of reaching a temporary agreement by the end of the year.Iran nuclear negotiations are one of the few energy cards in the United States. As long as the Iran nuclear negotiations have the possibility of reaching, the impact on the market will always exist.

Huatai Futures pointed out that Iran is one of the few countries in the current market that can be increased significantly, and Iranian oil, sea, land pillowing is nearly 50 million barrels. Once the sanctions are lifted, the short -term oil market has a large impact.

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