The growth rate of foreign trade continues to "exceed expectations". How can the second half be stable?

△ The "Changan" Central and European trains are loaded and unloaded container in Xi'an Xinzhu Station.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the total value of China's goods trade import and export was 23.6 trillion yuan in the 7 months of 2022, a year -on -year increase of 10.4%. Among them, in July in July, imports and exports increased by 16.6%year -on -year, and the trade surplus was US $ 1012.26 billion, an increase of 81.5%, a record high in the same period. In this regard, foreign media use "surprise" and "super expected speed speed" to describe.

This is not the first time that foreign trade has performed well. Affected by the short -term impact of the epidemic and the rise in external situation uncertainty, the growth rate of foreign trade fell to 0.1%in April. This is rare for the background of weak global economic recovery and weak trade investment.

Excellent toughness and competitiveness behind speed speed up

△ Jiangsu Nantong Tonghai Port area container operating area (drone shooting).

"The reason why China's foreign trade achievements have repeatedly exceeded expectations, on the one hand, thanks to the rapid recovery of my country's industrial chain and supply chain; on the other hand, my country continues to be strong in policy to help enterprises reduce costs and expand the market." The Ministry of Commerce Researcher Zhou Mi told the reporter of China Report.

According to Li Chunding, the director of the Department of Economic and Trade at China Agricultural University, the performance of foreign trade is strong, reflecting the "Made in China" with full toughness and competitiveness. The huge scale of the Chinese market has provided strong support for the domestic industrial ecosystem. In addition, active industrial policy organizations, diversified products, and powerful resource allocation capabilities, Chinese manufacturing industry is extremely competitive in the Asian and even global markets. Force, it provides strong support for import and export.

"In recent years, new highlights and new growth points in foreign trade in my country have emerged, including the development of digital trade and cross -border e -commerce, and the development of trade with the" Belt and Road "countries. The rapid development of energy vehicles has effectively drove the exports of automobiles, new energy and photovoltaic components, and has become a new highlight of foreign trade. "Li Chunding said.

At the same time, the quality and efficiency of export trade in my country have continued to improve, and the upgrading of export industry has brought about value and price improvement, which has promoted the rapid growth of foreign trade. "While the export scale is growing, my country's export goods are optimizing and quality improvement." Li Chunding also said that the export rebound and centralized exports after the impact of the inhabitants of the Yangtze River Delta this year, and the strong trend of foreign trade has also promoted the momentum of foreign trade. effect.

"RCEP provides new momentum for regional economic recovery and development, and has become an important force to promote high -quality development of foreign trade." In the interview, many people in the industry specially talked about and affirmed the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) Implementation Effect.

Since RCEP take effect on January 1 this year, the "circle of friends" of RCEP member states has continued to expand, and trade dividends have continued to release. Many foreign trade enterprises have benefited from dividends such as tariffs, customs clearance, and trade investment facilitation brought by RCEP.

Li Kuiwen, director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis of the General Administration of Customs, pointed out that in July, my country's export to RCEP trading partners was 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8%year -on -year, and the overall import and export increased by 5.6 percentage points. RCEP further deepened the regional economic interconnection and trade cooperation, providing new momentum for regional economic recovery and development.

Establish examples and benchmarks for the world trade recovery

△ On January 12, a freighter stopped at the foreign trade container terminal in Qingdao Port, Shandong.

Foreign trade is known as the "engine" of economic growth, and is one of the "three -driving carriages" that drives economic growth. As the largest country in the world, what positive impact will China's foreign trade growth will have on the global economy?

"The rapid recovery of China's foreign trade growth has set an example and benchmark for the recovery of the world trade, and it is also conducive to promoting the liberalization of global trade and the facilitation of global trade." Li Chunding told the China Reporter.

Zhou Mi pointed out that the continuous growth of China's foreign trade has a very positive significance for meeting global demand. Under the impact of the epidemic, global demand is difficult to meet, because in addition to the adjustment of the supply chain, the fragmentation of demand, changes in structure, and regional distribution are all affected. "China Export" can effectively meet these needs. On the other hand, "China Import" supports products exported by many countries including large commodities to provide effective impetus for the economic development of these countries.

Talking about the impact of foreign trade growth on the domestic economy, Zhou secretly pointed out that the growth of foreign trade can transform domestic production capacity into actual value on the one hand. Enterprises can get more foreign exchange income through exports to better participate in the global value chain; On the other hand, "China Import" also meets domestic consumption and production needs.

Li Chunding believes that the growth of China's foreign trade is conducive to economic growth and recovery, the improvement of domestic employment and income levels, and it is also conducive to the upgrade of consumption.

It is necessary to actively cope with the factors of uncertainty and unstable

△ Shenzhen Shekou Port.

Looking forward to the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, many people in the industry pointed out that in the second half of the year, the uncertain instability facing my country's foreign trade development increased, and the situation was still complicated and severe.

"From the perspective of external demand, affected by geopolitical conflicts, some developed economies accelerated the tightening of monetary policy, the global economic growth rate was slow, and the prospects of trade growth were not optimistic. From the perspective of domestic, foreign trade bases were significantly increased in the second half of the year. The cost is still high, and it is still difficult to connect the order to extend the market. "At the routine press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, Shu Jianting. From the perspective of Zhou Mi, there are many factors in China's foreign trade uncertainty in the second half of the year. First, the uncertainty of the Russian -Ukraine conflict will make global foreign trade unpredictable development prospects, including the price of commodities and trade relations. The country's major trade protectionism has caused the original international economic and trade relations to be seriously affected. Can the consensus reached by the WTO is challenged by all parties; the third is that the innovation of the trade model brought by the development of new technology is that It is not possible to get response and attention, but also affect the development of the enterprise. Fourth, in the context of a series of monetary policy adjustments in the Federal Reserve, global capital flows have changed significantly, which will have a larger economic development in many countries. The impact, this impact will affect the trade capabilities and willingness of various countries.

"In the second half of the year, my country's foreign trade growth rate still faces challenges, but the quality of foreign trade will continue to improve." Li Chunding analyzed that from international factors, many countries and regions around the world raised interest rates, and the central bank represented by the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. It has exacerbated global currency tightening expectations. In the context of global currency tightening, foreign demand may be affected and reduced, causing uncertainty of foreign trade exports in my country. At the same time, in the second half of 2021, trade showed a high -speed growth, and the total annual trade growth rate reached 30%; the foreign trade development in the second half of the year will also face the high base challenges of the same period last year.

Li Chunding also pointed out that under the new development pattern of domestic large -cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles, it is necessary to re -position my country's foreign trade development. In the long run, the transformation and upgrading of the quality of foreign trade in my country needs to give the corresponding supporting policies in policies; in the short term, a series of policies and measures that promote foreign trade, stabilize foreign trade, stabilize foreign capital, and further expand opening up are further continued. In addition, we must continuously develop new growth points of foreign trade, and use these new growth points to achieve the sustainable growth of our foreign trade.

Zhao Ping, deputy dean of the China Trade Council Research Institute, suggested that stabilizing foreign trade must make efforts from two aspects: First, continue to scientifically coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. Relevant policies will be effective, so that the foreign trade industry will continue to grow in the future; the second is to further promote the implementation of the policy of free trade agreements and multi -bilateral cooperation agreements, encourage enterprises The market promotes Chinese companies to maintain a high growth trend of foreign trade imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" countries, and maintain a strong promotion role for foreign trade growth.

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