Reported listed company interim performance explosion table

In August, the domestic TDI market bottomed out, and the price increased by 1,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the profit margin of manufacturing enterprises increased. From the perspective of the industry in the industry, the fundamentals are still favorable. The price of TDI market still has room for increase, but the degree of downstream acceptance is not high. It will limit the height of the TDI market to a height and duration.

The fundamentals are still good

According to Meng Xianxing, deputy dean of the Shandong Provincial Institute of Chemical Engineering, the domestic TDI market is currently favorable for fermentation. The middlemen may settle their losses at the end of the month, and the offer continues to rise. As of now, the TDI price has risen from 14,700 yuan in early August to the current 15,700 yuan.

From the perspective of device operation, the operating rate of the TDI industry remains at 72%. Gansu Yinguang 120,000 tons/year TDI device parking is expected to restart in November; Juli Chemical's Yantai 30,000 tons+50,000 tons/year device parking and maintenance is not determined; Near 50%; Shanghai's two major TDI suppliers have undergone large -scale maintenance, and the inventory is relatively low. In addition, a large TDI distributor in the north takes control measures; Shanghai Koschuang TDI price was adjusted to 16,400 yuan in oneial price. Supply tightening brings vitality to the TDI market.

From the perspective of the outer disk, the European Hungarian TDI device parking is maintained, Koschuang and the BASF devices are unstable; Indian GNFC's 50,000 tons/year device will not start working smoothly on August 10th, delayed to restart on August 15th, and formed with the domestic market formed echo.

Regarding the market outlook, Meng Xianxing analyzed that the TDI device of Wanhua Yantai is planned to be routinely maintained in October, and the supply side has reduced expectations. In addition, the current price of production companies is strong, and the fundamentals of TDI are still optimistic. Before the peak season, "warm -up" or a foregone conclusion, and the price of the market outlook is still possible.

Bad oscillating of raw materials

From the perspective of raw materials, toluene market fluctuates, and TDI cost support is limited.

Although the demand for mixed gasoline has increased, the current level of exports of production companies is generally higher, and some refineries are still studying export toluene, which has increased market pressure. In addition, the demand for fine chemicals in China is still weak, and toluene discussed the price fluctuation. However, the level of port inventory is low, and the cost of holding positions has also been supported, making the overall volatility of toluene prices in various places is small.

"The overall weak down of the metal -based oil market of toluene, the demand for gasoline is not good, and the demand for downstream olefins is weak, and the device load is not high, which has further decreased the demand for petroleum oil. Oil price fell by nearly 6%month -on -month, which is difficult to bring cost support to the toluene market. "Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said.

The international toluene market also shows weak shocks. Supply and demand in Southeast Asia, India and other regions, weak demand in Northeast Asia, fewer market negotiation activities, and international toluene prices fell slightly by 1.81%.

Due to the decline in toluene prices, TDI's profit space increases. As of August 11, the profit of domestic TDI small devices was about 1,000 yuan, and large devices were 2800 yuan, an increase of 200 yuan from the profit space at the end of July.

"The fundamentals are still weak, and the peripheral news surface is empty, which makes the toluene market be under pressure. The market price is expected to be reduced. Therefore, the TDI profit space is still possible." Wang Quanping analyzed.

Demand causes drag

From the perspective of the polyurethane industry chain, the overall shows "upper heat and cold". Since August, the price of products has risen less. In the final analysis, it has been affected by macroeconomic pressure at home and abroad. The overall operating environment of the terminal is not good. The domestic real estate industry is downturn, resulting in the end of the downturn.

From the perspective of soft bubble polyether, the market is suppressed first, and the main source of power has gradually tightened the upward movement after low -cost capacity, especially the price of patelletide in the large factory and another raw material has risen again. The market atmosphere is heated. The price of polyether is 400 yuan. However, at this stage, the price of soft bubble polyether is still high in the south and north, and the overall is still tepid.

From the perspective of the market market, the soft bubble polyether's large manufacturer is still willing to exist. The northern factory has tentatively risen. The spot market has continued to move up at a low price, but there are not many feedback on the high price, and the north is even more dull. It is difficult to change the overall downstream market.

In particular, terminal demand has not improved. Judging from the recent national policies, the prospects of the real estate industry are expected to be optimistic. Domestic epidemic scattered outbreaks, overseas orders return, the export dividends brought by the epidemic disappear, exacerbating the domestic market competition. Economic pressure at home and abroad, entering the low desire consumption cycle.

In addition, the overall demand of the terminal sponge has not been launched, and the order has not improved significantly. At the same time, the price of sponges also stops, and has a limited effect on raw materials.

In addition, data from the China Automotive Circulation Association showed that in July, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 54.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year -on -year, and an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of the segment index, the decline in inventory, demand, and average daily sales index in July, causing drag on upstream raw materials, and it is difficult to bring strong support to the TDI market. (Li Wenfeng)

- END -