The five major chiefs of the first stage of the economic force: the economic recovery momentum slowdown still requires policy to continue

Judging from the major economic indicators released in July released by the State Bureau of Statistics recently, my country's economic recovery momentum has slowed down. At the same time, the number of new RMB loans and social financing in July was also lower than expected, indicating that the steady growth policy still needs to continue to force.

So, in the next stage, in terms of promoting the development of continuous economic resumption, how does monetary and fiscal and tax policies work together? "Securities Daily" reporter interviewed five chief economists to jointly put the veins at the next stage of economic efforts.

Domestic demand recovery is not obvious

The growth rate of investment and consumption in July was lower than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of the club in July was 2.7%. From January to July, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 5.7%. The year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment continued to decline to -6.4%, reflecting that the current domestic demand recovery was not obvious.

"The economic recovery rate in July has declined to a certain extent from June. The reason behind it is that the disturbance of economic activities and consumption in the epidemic in July is slightly larger than in June. At the same time, the sharp recovery of economic recovery in June has a certain amount of demand in July in some aspects. Explorer. "CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly told reporters that structural perspective, multiple factors have led to insufficient effective demand, the real estate market is facing difficult difficulties, and relatively weak consumption performance in residents.

After looking out, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said that the reappearance of consumption data in July was declining, and the growth rate was significantly weaker than industrial production. The current characteristics of the macroeconomic "strong demand for strong demand" were further prominent. On the one hand, the decline in the growth rate of residents' income in the early stage is restricting the current consumption; on the other hand, the repeated epidemic not only affects the consumption scenarios of goods and services, but also brings a certain impact on residents' confidence, which has led to the enhancement of residents' savings. Inhibitory effect.

"Considering the gradual release of the effect of car purchase tax reduction policy, automobile consumption still supports a certain support for social zero." Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said that in the first half of the year, the disposable income growth rate of urban residents was 3.6%, and the central bank's urban storage households were stored. The questionnaire survey shows that residents 'willingness to savings has reached a record high, the residents' "preventive" savings will have a strong willingness, or it will affect the extent of investment consumption restoration in the future.

From the perspective of investment, Wang Qing expects that with policy financial instruments, the special debt fund support project will gradually form a physical workload. In August, infrastructure investment will continue to speed up the trend. In the context of the macro policy represented by the downside, the downward trend of fixed asset investment growth will be alleviated in the short term, and the speed up of infrastructure investment will greatly hedge the impact of the decline in real estate investment.

Zhao Wei said that the local bonds were issued nearly 1.6 trillion yuan in June, but infrastructure investment in July still fell, which reflected the lag of funds to a certain extent. Infrastructure investment may reflect the "front" of funds, and the epidemic exits in many places, and the funds are not matched with the project, resulting in slow landing. Since the beginning of the year, the investment in investment has accelerated, driving the improvement of the mid -to -part index indicators, and the repair speed is still slow.

Pang Yan, chief economist of the Zhongliang Federation of Greater China, believes that the temporary and short -term factors of domestic epidemics and the complexity of the international situation are complicated, and the situation of economic recovery, especially the production and consumer end, causes large disturbances to disturb , But the momentum of macroeconomic restoration continues.

"In July, the increase in credit and social integration increased by 401 billion yuan and 319.1 billion yuan, respectively. The growth rate of stocks declined slightly. Policy adjustment. "Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Institute of Investment, said.

Fiscal and monetary policy needs to work together

Fiscal and monetary policies are the main tools for boosting demand. Fiscal policy focuses on guiding the increase in effective demand for society. Monetary policy focuses on maintaining stable prices and reducing social financing costs. The two need to work together to stabilize the economic market.

It is worth noting that the current currency incremental policy has begun to make efforts. On August 15, the central bank launched a 400 billion yuan medium -term loan convenience (MLF) operation to net recovery of 200 billion yuan liquidity; carried out 2 billion yuan 7 -day reverse repurchase to continue to maintain lower operations. The 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate and one -year MLF interest rate were reduced by 0.1 percentage points, which were reduced to 2.0%and 2.75%, respectively. "The adjustment of the total amount and price tools at the same time is the urgent need for the current economic recovery to increase the adjustment of counter -cycle regulation." Lian Ping said.

Lian Ping said that in the future, the stable monetary policy will focus on promoting credit expansion, focusing on improving the credit support capabilities and real economy financing capabilities of commercial banks, and opening up the policy transmission channels of wide currencies to expanding credit. In the second half of the year, demand has slowly recovered and fiscal expenditure has continued to increase, and central bank reverse repurchase may still maintain a lower scale of operation. As of now, there are still 2.6 trillion yuan of MLFs this year, and the probability of moderate reduction of sequels is greater. Compared with MLF, the cost of funding released by the RRRC is lower and the deadline is longer. The advantages of adjusting the capital structure of the bank will be more suitable.

"Under the current economic situation, the monetary policy is increasingly adjusted to regulate counter -cyclical adjustment. If there is demand and space, it is necessary to reduce market interest rates to stimulate credit expansion and recovery demand, and improve policy expectations." Lian Ping said.

"The" push rope effect "of monetary policy determines that in the process of steady growth, it is more auxiliary role, and the effect of fiscal policy will be more direct." Zhao Wei saidThe gap, including local general fiscal revenue and expenditure, supplemented by transfer payment; some eastern provinces with more surplus special debt quotas can supplement the government fund revenue and expenditure gap through the issuance limit.In addition, Zhao Wei believes that the asset side of the policy bank does not have a hard budget, and the capital adequacy ratio that needs to be met is much higher than the regulatory red line of more than 3.5 percentage points; in addition to the capital adequacy ratio, it is not limited by other commercial bank regulatory indicators., Can increase financial support for key areas and weak links in a timely manner.

Obviously, it is also believed that the future fiscal policy will also be introduced. It does not rule out the possibility of expanding the amount of the special debt this year or the use of special debt in advance next year.

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