"The two ends and the middle drought", how much the autumn grain production has

16.08.2022

Number of this text: 2874, the reading time is about 4 minutes older

Guide: Drought and flood disasters, extreme weather may have a certain impact on the production of food this year. However, in the later period, it is still necessary to combine comprehensive factors such as food production disaster management and pests and pests to determine the degree of influence.

Author | First Finance Shao Haipeng

The output accounts for autumn grains with 75%of the annual grain output, and it is nearly 50 days before the harvest.

A few days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an urgent notice to further deploy to prevent high temperature and drought in the harvest of autumn. At the same time, the work group and 12 science and technology teams were sent to the key provinces of autumn grains and key areas affected by high temperature and droughts, and key measures were implemented.

At present, the middle rice in the south has entered the pumping period, and the summer corn enters the pumping period, which is the critical period for output.

Chen Tao, chief forecaster of the National Meteorological Center, and Chen Lijuan, chief forecast at the National Climate Center, said that high temperature weather has a certain adverse effect on agricultural production in the southern region. Continuing high temperature is not conducive to some crops, and some economic forest fruit crops are growing and developing.

However, the industry also mentioned that the impact of high temperature on food production is difficult to generalize whether it is domestic or international. Meteorological droughts have many conditions to turn agricultural drought. Only in places where irrigation facilities are incomplete, and the long -lasting meteorological drought can cause agricultural drought. At present, it is not objective to judge grain production alone from high temperature weather.

Autumn grain production influences incidents

August and September are the critical period for the formation of autumn grain production. On the morning of August 15th, at the press conference of the New National Office, Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Statistics of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics, said that the impact of natural disasters, pests and pests such as natural disasters and pests should be paid closely.

According to the forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the climate of the flood season in my country this year is generally biased, the extreme weather events are too large, and the drought and flood disasters are heavier, showing the trend of "two ends and middle droughts."

In the south, the continuous high temperature leads to some land with poor irrigation conditions such as hills and "Wangtiantian"; in North China and Northeast China, rainfall leads to local crops and the pyanland stagnant water.

Since June this year, rare high temperature weather has appeared in my country. On August 12, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first high -temperature red warning this year. At present, in the critical period of the growth of autumn grains in China, the temperature peak of the temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in South China and the Yangtze River is exactly the peak of the temperature in July and August. The continuous high temperature will have a great impact on the output.

Zhang Zhixian, deputy dean of the China Grain NetEase Research Institute, told the first financial reporter that at present, the impact of high temperature on food production needs to be analyzed in detail depending on the actual situation. The drought accompanied by high temperature is the main killer of food production. If some areas of high temperatures, with the decrease in rainfall, causing drought, it will seriously affect the growth of crops such as food; if the high temperature accompanies a certain amount of rainfall, or the regional water supply guarantee is guaranteed, it may have a small impact. Full light is also conducive to the growth of crops.

Jiang Yan, a consulting researcher of Breke, believes that the impact of continuous high temperature on food production needs to distinguish areas and varieties. For example, in North China, the crop is summer corn. The climate during the sowing period this year was relatively dry. It encountered high temperature in July, but the rainfall in the region was good and corn grows good. The high temperature continued in the early stage, which led to the growing growth of some seedlings, and the male flowers bloomed earlier. The male flowers thanked the female flowers, which may affect the production to a certain extent.

For another example, in the south bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the north of the south, high temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius have recently appeared in many regions. In addition, when rainfall is small, the water level of rivers and rivers will decrease, which will affect the growth of mid -night rice in the region to a certain extent. At present, mid -night rice is in the period of pumping and flowering, and the impact of high temperature and drought is still continuing. It is easy to affect the formation of spikes in the later period, or it will have a certain impact on the later output and quality.

Take Sichuan as an example. On August 11, the Sichuan Agricultural Meteorological Center analyzed that although high temperature drought continued, there was still intermittent precipitation in early August, and the fertility process of cropy crops in the basin was large. Essence

Specifically, the sunny weather is conducive to the timely exposure of the first season of rice in the pelvic regeneration rice area, and the high temperature weather also reduces the occurrence of diseases and insect pests in the area to a certain extent; Growth is significantly affected. The cracking of rice fields without water conservancy irrigation cannot be alleviated, and it threatens largely on the output. Most of the water sources are guaranteed to be guaranteed by the Pen West Plain area. The abundant sunshine is conducive to crop growth and output formation.

On the whole, the domestic rice field water conservancy facilities are better, and active drought resistance can largely offset the effects of drought. On August 11, in order to cope with the drought caused by the continued high temperature and hot weather in the southern region, the National Defense Corps launched the first emergency response to the six provinces of the Yangtze River Basin, such as Sichuan.

In the northeast, the waterlogging is frequent. Jilin and Liaoning provinces are more obvious. According to COFCO Futures for investigations on the affected area of ​​Northeast Ji Liao, the overall production reduction is limited. As for the overall output, it still needs to be verified by autumn grain. At present, the pollination of corn in the Northeast production area has ended and entered the grouting period. The subsequent light temperature conditions still have a greater impact on annual production. Judging from the later weather forecast, it is normal. The probability of increasing production will still be increased for unacceptable Heilongjiang and Jiliaogang land.

According to the industry's expectations, drought and flood disasters and extreme weather may have a certain impact on the production of food this year. However, in the later period, comprehensive factors such as disaster management and pests in grain production are still needed to determine the impact. In addition, according to the monitoring of the national crop disease and insect pest monitoring network, due to the seasonal climate, since mid -to -late July, the number of foreign insect sources has increased, and the amount of pests in rice darts in the southwest, South China and Jiangnan rice area is significantly higher than the previous year. Expert analysis predicts that the climate from August to September is conducive to the breeding and relocation of pests such as padded pests and insects. To this end, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs notified to strengthen prevention and control, strictly prevent insect diseases, and strive to achieve a harvest of "insects to seize food".

Zhang Zhixian said that high temperature and rainy weather is most likely to cause more pests in diseases and insects. The most important thing for preventing diseases and insect pests is to start early and measure the road. Because it is not technically a problem, it is mainly to attach importance to the degree and investment. At present, the prevention and control should be effective, and the specific impact on mid -night rice production still needs to be observed.

The price of rice continues to be sluggish

On the one hand, the new rice is facing high temperature and drought, and the other side is that Chen Dao is facing a weak market. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the rice market is prominent. Due to the continuous downturn, dealers dare not prepare a lot of stocks or even have no inventory. The two best rice produced in 2021, the price fell below 1.8 yuan/catties, and the price of Chen rice was lower.

Figure Source: Brek Consultation

The reason why the domestic rice market is plain is mainly related to its loose supply and demand.

Zheng Wenhui, a grain economy researcher at the South China Grain Exchange Center, said that from the perspective of the supply side, the domestic supply is guaranteed. In the past two years, rice has increased production, and there are surplus every year. The official also released information. At present, the inventory of my country's rice and wheat society is at a high level of history, which can meet the cost of ration consumption for more than a year. The market has not played much waves for the weather of early rice. Although the listing price was high, it was quickly stabilized and then went low. The weather problems may cause large -scale production to reduce production for a certain area and cooperative, but it is often not the case for the global.

From the perspective of demand, in the first half of this year, the domestic rice market was "the peak season is not strong" and "the off -season is fading." The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the first quarter caused the procurement of multiple main producing areas to stagnate, restricted external hair, and the market watching atmosphere rose to high. In the second quarter, the rice was weak in rice, the active price of rice purchase and sales rose, the price of rice did not increase, and the processing profits of rice enterprises were small, and the terminal demand was relatively sluggish.

Zheng Wenhui believes that from a macro trend, rice is mainly used for ration consumption. This part of consumption will stabilize and decrease slightly as the population grows to its peak. On the other hand, the prevention and control of the new coronary pneumonia has severely affected the catering industry and has impact on the overall demand of rice.

The same rations, wheat and rice, came out of a completely different price trend.

Zheng Wenhui said that this is highly related to the attributes of rice. The first is different product supply. Rice supply is the most sufficient in international grain varieties; the second is that the industrial chain is different. The rice industry chain is short, mainly based on ration consumption, while wheat feed consumption has increased more, and 2021/22 accounts for 20.4%of the total consumption. Third, the international trade pattern is different. The global rice output of 2021/22 is about 513 million tons, while the trade volume is only 52.26 million tons, accounting for 10%of production. The global wheat trade volume reached 195 million tons, accounting for 25%of the output. The main importers of wheat include Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Except for China, they can be self -sufficient, and other high external depends (imports/total consumption) can reach more than 40%. In addition, the global wheat trade volume is large, and the main imports are high. In the context of reducing production and inventory of global wheat production and inventory, Ukraine exports are easily formed to continue to rise.

According to statistics, since the lowest acquisition price of rice in 2022, it has invested a total of 25.16 million tons of rice, with only 560,000 tons and a transaction rate of 2.23%.

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