Muyuan shares for research: In May, the pork column of the product was about 110 kg, and the pig price trend was predicted in the second half of the year.

On June 13, some media issued a document that due to the preparation of the inventory price of 3.9 billion yuan in the 2021 financial report, Muyuan (SZ002714, the stock price of 54.85 yuan, and a market value of 29.19 billion) suspected that the profit increased by about 3.9 billion yuan. The key argument that the media questioned was the weight of fattening pigs.

During the survey of the reception agency yesterday, Muyuan shares disclosed the weight of the fertilizer pigs in May, which was lower than the data cited when the media questioned. At the same time, Muyuan shares believe that pig prices are expected to reach 18 yuan/kg ~ 20 yuan/kg in the second half of this year.

In May, the pork columns weighed about 110 kg

On June 16, Qin Jun, the secretary of the "Pig Mao" Muyuan Co., Ltd., received investor investigations. This evening, Muyuan shares disclosed the investor's investigation content, involving key issues such as pig prices and weight -breeding pigs.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that investors participating in research include well -known public offering and private equity funds such as Carship Fund, Morgan Huaxin, Chongyang Investment, Gao Yi Assets.

In the content of the investigation Ji, Muyuan's shares mentioned that the cost of weaned piglets and the outlets of commercial pigs were heavy. "At present, the average cost of weaning piglets is around 350 yuan. The company's pork in May in May is about 110kg." Qin Jun said.

Earlier, some media questioned Muyuan's shares of about 3.9 billion yuan. The important argument was the weight of fattening pigs. According to calculations, the average weight of Makiyuan's fattening pigs out of weight is 118.7 kg (1573.00/13.25 = 118.7 kg). ". It further believes that when the" conservation pig "is turned into a" fattening pig ", the cost of Muyuan shares is about 600 yuan/ The average weight at this time is about 29 kg. Using the industry formula and the data we get, you can calculate the real cost of these pigs at 1777.6 yuan/head. The cost of breeding disclosed by the annual review agency is 1559.53 yuan, which is 218 yuan higher than 218 yuan higher. . Then the fattening pigs should be "218 yuan, the total amount is about 3.9 billion yuan."

However, after that, Muyuan Co., Ltd. responded to the content of the media, "During the impairment calculation process of the company at the end of 2021, the fattening pig's prediction sales weight was 110kg. This is also the actual level of the company's commercial pigs. 118.7 kg; the average sales price of the company's prediction was 14.3 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs appearing from January-April 2022 from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry was higher than the company's predicted average price. The situation is basically consistent, with prudentiality. "

No large -scale capital expenditure plan

In addition to the weight of the fertile pigs, Muyuan shares also mentioned the situation of the future pig prices and the number of outlets.

"As of the end of May, the company's pig surviving column was about 35 million heads. The number of sows recently decreased compared with the end of the first quarter, which is a normal fluctuation in production and operation." In order to improve production efficiency, reduce the cost of breeding, improve the elimination standards of busty sow, and prioritize the elimination of some capable sows with lower number of production. At the same time The replacement update of pigs is to create a high healthy pig group and strengthen the cost control of breeding.

According to the company's plan this year, it is estimated that the raw pigs out of 2022 are 50 million to 56 million heads.

Recently, pig prices have also recovered, but Muyuan shares said that there will be no large -scale capital expenditure. "The company has no specific plan to arrange large -scale capital expenditures. Recently, pig prices have rebounded, and the company's cash flow has improved. , But still do not have the conditions to increase capital expenditure in a large scale in the short term. If the company's operating cash flow continues to improve, the company will carefully consider the new capital expenditure plan on the premise of ensuring cash flow security and daily health operations. "

Muyuan shares also predict the future pig prices. The market price of the pigs from April to the present, there has been a significant increase in continuous recovery. Combined with factors such as the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry and the duration of the increase in the price of pig prices, this time The rise in pig prices is mainly due to the improvement of the marginal improvement of supply and demand, not being driven by simple emotions or short -term expectations. The company's identification of the market's mainstream view on pig prices in the second half of this year is expected to reach 18 yuan/kg-20 yuan/kg in the second half of this year.

As for the cost, the company's total cost of pig farming in May was slightly reduced compared to April, and the current complete cost was slightly lower than 16 yuan/kg. According to rough estimates, the impact of rising grain prices at the beginning of last year on the cost of breeding of the company's unit was about 1.5 yuan /kg-1.8 yuan/kg. Comprehensive consideration of external factors such as the rapid rise in raw material prices, the company's cost goal in 2022 was a complete cost of redeeming 14.5 yuan/kg-15 yuan/kg in 2022.

Daily Economic News

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