Daily discussing gold | Raising interest rate hike expected to cool down, the price of gold is steadily moving forward

Today Guest: Gold Investment Analyst Zhang Bo

In the week of August 8, the international gold price continued to maintain an oscillating trend, with a maximum of $ 1808/ounce, and the weekly closing was above the $ 1,800/ounce mark, showing a four -year -old pattern. As the US consumer price index (CPI) data decline exceeded expectations in July, the market is optimistic that inflation has been topped, so the Federal Reserve ’s strong interest rate hike expectations have been lowered. The downward reduction suppressed the US finger and boosted the price of gold.

The inflation data released by the United States last week has declined significantly. As the author analyzed before, due to the needs of the US midterm elections, its economic data obviously had distortion, which caused certain interference to the international market. At present, the United States not only has chaos on geopolitical issues, but also fraud on economic data, bringing a lot of uncertainty to the international financial market.

Just last night (15th), the August manufacturing index plummeted to a historical low of -31.3, which was far lower than market expectations. The collapse of this important economic data showed that although inflation in July was alleviated, the US economy was still the same The deeper and deeper in the quagmire to the recession, the economic hard landing may be unavoidable. From a comprehensive analysis, after a continuous interest rate hike, the Fed has raised the federal fund interest rate to 2.25%to 2.5%. However, the control of American inflation has not achieved due effects, 8.5%of the data is still a high inflation data.

Recently, the commodities such as petroleum have fallen, but geopolitical issues are still being gradually upgraded. With the advent of autumn and winter and the approaching consumer season at the end of the year. Back warning, the problem of the bottleneck around the global supply chain will once again trigger the market's concerns. For the gold market, the recent distorted economic data phenomenon of the United States is weakening on gold. In fact, the performance of gold is already being faked in the United States' economic data. return.

Looking forward to this week, the market pays attention to the focus of the ground, and the US retail sales data will be announced on Wednesday night and the Minutes of the Federal Reserve Conference later, which is expected to have a certain impact on this week.

From a technical point of view, this week's gold price continues to pay attention to the long and short contest of the $ 1,800/ounce integer mark. After the retail data on Wednesday and the minutes of the early morning of Thursday, if it can be maintained on this position, the upward target test is 1,830 to 1835 US dollars/ounce area pressure; below is US $ 1765/ounce support. In terms of specific operations, it is recommended to rely on the support position below, and continue to adopt a low -oriented, high -throw and low -absorbing trading strategy.

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