Zhong Zhengsheng et al.: In the third quarter, there are still many favorable factors support in China

Zhongxin Jingwei August 16th.

Author Zhong Zhengsheng Ping An Securities Chief Economist and Director of Research Institute

Zhang Lu Ping An Securities Senior Macro Analyst

Senior macro analyst of Zhang Deli Ping An Securities

In July, the month -on -year growth rate of China's major economic growth indicators generally declined compared to June, and the economy failed to continue its strong recovery. The important reason behind it is that the real estate market is impacted, which has a great impact on real estate investment and related service industries and industrial raw materials, and also affects the willingness of residents' consumption and corporate investment to a certain extent.

We believe that the successive deployment, implementation, and effectiveness of various stable growth policies in the early stage determined that the foundation of the Chinese economy's "steady and far away" has not changed; and the confidence of the real estate market has boosted, the stabilization of real estate investment, and the related industrial chain The implication effect, or the most important variable that determines the elasticity of China's economic growth in the second half of the year.

The difficulty of completing the annual economic growth goals increases

On the whole, the difficulty of completing the annual economic growth goal is increasing, and "stabilizing the economic market needs to continue to work hard."

In the main economic indicators in July, the month -on -year decline of catering consumption was further narrowed, which reflected that the "squat rebound" in the field continued after the epidemic improved. The industrial added value fell 0.1 points year -on -year to 3.8%. The service industry production index fell 0.7 percentage points year -on -year to 0.6%.

However, "Stable Employment" continued to achieve results. In July, the urban survey unemployment rate further dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 5.4%. In response to the problem of unemployment rates of young people aged 16-24 to 19.9%, the National Bureau of Statistics stated that "young people are young people There is also a gap between the expectations of employment and market demand during the job search. "

To achieve steady growth in the future

Looking forward to the third quarter, we believe that China's economy is still supported.

First, there are obvious low base effects in August-September. Since August 2021, there have been continuous power -restricted power in many places, superimposed to flood disasters and local epidemic impacts, dragging down the third quarter of 2021 GDP less than 0.8 percentage points lower than the seasonal average. Therefore, the GDP in the third quarter of 2022 has a low base effect support.

Second, consumption continues to slow down the trend. In July 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods except cars were only 1.9%year-on-year, and there was still a large gap between 7.0%(data from January to February 2022) before the epidemic. Beginning in late May, the central and local governments have issued a package of car promotional consumption policies. In the short term, it is still the release period of the early car consumption stimulus policy dividends.

Third, in the third quarter, it is expected to introduce green home appliances and tax support policies to expand consumer growth points. The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that 200 million household appliances will be scrapped in 2022; the retail sales of household appliances and audio equipment above the limit in July will increase by 7.1%year -on -year, a significant increase from 3.2%in June. The "Notice on Promoting Several Measures on Promoting Green Smart Home Appliances Consumption" was jointly released. Refer to the experience of consumption stimulus from 2007 to 2013 (a total of 136.3 billion yuan in financial funds in the country, driving about 1.21 trillion yuan in home appliances, and a leverage rate of 8.9 times). We believe that in the third quarter or it is expected to increase the consumption policy of home appliances in the third quarter.

Fourth, since July, the State Council, ministries, and local governments have measured multiple measures to promote infrastructure to form a physical workload. From the perspective of high -frequency indicators such as cement and asphalt, the physical workload is formed or accelerated, and the GDP accounting of fixed asset investment is based on the physical workload, which will be more reflected in the quarterly GDP data.

However, the pressure of steady growth in China in the fourth quarter may increase: First of all, the effectiveness of the policy of steady growth at the end of May is gradually weakening; secondly, policies such as energy consumption dual control and real estate regulation in the fourth quarter of 2021 have been corrected. The average seasonality value is 1.1 percentage points, and the high base may drag the year -on -year reading of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022; again, the probability of a new round of large -scale stimulus policies in the fourth quarter of 2022 may not be high.

In short, with the successive deployment, implementation, and effectiveness of various stable growth policies introduced in the early stage, the foundation of the Chinese economy has not changed; and the confidence of the real estate market has boosted, the stability of real estate investment, and the related related to the relevant real estate investment, and the related related to the relevant real estate investment, and the relevant related to the relevant real estate investment, and the relevant related to the relevant real estate investment, and the relevant related to the related real estate investment, and the related of related real estate investment, and the related related to the relevant real estate investment, and the related of related real estate investment, and the related related to the related real estate investment, and the related. The implication effect of the industrial chain is the most important variable that determines the elasticity of China's economic growth in the second half of the year. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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