Liu Yu: MLF and reverse repurchase interest rates may still have room for regulation

Zhongxin Jingwei August 16th. Question: MLF and reverse repurchase interest rates may still have room for adjustment

Author Liu Yu Guangfa Securities Solid Harvest Chief Analyst

On August 15th, the central bank invested 400 billion yuan MLF (convenient for medium -term borrowing), reducing the upcoming 600 billion yuan MLF, and a low interest rate of 10BP (base point).

Rest at earlier than we expect. We believe that during the year, the residential and corporate departments may not have a strong willingness to debt, and it still depends on the support of the currency supply side. The market may be re-entered by the market for the re-rising currency of the market. In July, the loan, especially the loan, was weaker than expected, which made the interest rate cut early, so that it did not experience the period when the market was loose and expected to rise, but directly entered the state of interest cutting.

The inherent logic of interest rate cuts is to continue to support residents and enterprises financing, and external logic is to relax overseas restrictions. We believe that the next, MLF and reverse repurchase interest rates may still have room to reduce, focusing on the restoration process of subsequent resident loans and corporate loans, as well as the restoration of real estate sales -real estate financing -land purchase chain.

In the economic data in July, the real estate chain data weakened compared with the previous month, the retail growth rate slowed down, and the consumption of consumption was weak. The structural unemployment corresponding to the rise in human structural unemployment rates is not as good as expected in July, and the further support of policies is pointed to the need for policies.

For the bond market, the key role of interest rate cuts is that currency easing is expected to be strengthened, and the long -term interest rate down space is opened. The interest rate cut may break the market's concerns about the rise in short -term inflation and the central bank's marginal tightening of short -term capital interest rates. Next, the downward space of the mid -length interest rate is expected to open, and the space of the short -term interest rate may not be as good as the mid -length end. Although the interest rate of the bank's overnight borrowing funds will not increase significantly, the leverage of the bond market remains relatively high, and the overnight interest rate is about 1.1%, and the further downward space is limited.

In summary, if the combination of the next two months is considered, we will make the following hypothesis on the change of interest rate debt curve: maintain stability within the 1Y (year) period, 3Y down 15bp, corresponding to 3Y-1Y's spread to 75% to 75% Near the division, 10Y down 10bp to 2.55%, and the remaining periods were fully used by linear interpolation. We have selected a variety of active transactions in the past month near each period, simulated coupons until the October tax period, and observed the profit situation of each period.

From the results, the profit space of the investment length is more sufficient and more secure, of which 6Y and 8Y varieties are more cost -effective. When the target is 3 years or lower, the performance of the bullet strategy is more stable. If the target is longer than 4 years, the dumbbell combination of short -term+6Y can be considered. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

This article was selected by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute. The copy of the work produced by the selected work, the copyright of the work, is not authorized by any unit or individual. The views involved in the selected content only represent the original author and do not represent the view of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei.

Editor in charge: Song Yafen

Pay attention to the official WeChat public account of JWVIEW (JWVIEW) to get more elite financial information.

- END -