Power again!The main economic indicators of our country remain recovering

China Commercial Daily (Reporter Peng Tingting text/picture) With the effective implementation of a package of stable economic policy measures, the main economic indicators of our country continue to restore the situation -data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15 shows that in July, industries above the national size The added value increased by 3.8%year -on -year; the national service industry production index increased by 0.6%year -on -year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 2.7%year -on -year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.16%month -on -month, and the total import and export of goods increased by 16.6%year -on -year.

"But we must also see that due to multiple factors, the margin of economic recovery has slowed down, and the foundation of consolidating economic recovery still needs to be strong." Said Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics.

Judging from the later trend, my country's consumption is expected to recover and develop well. The picture shows a shopping mall in Beijing.

Infrastructure investment pull production demand indicators are basically stable

Since July, although the new crown pneumonia's epidemic has been distributed and frequent, it has been effectively controlled in general, and a package of stable economic policy measures has continued to play a role. In July, the main production demand indicators were basically stable.

From that month, in July, the value -added value of industries above designated size, the service industry production index, import and export, total retail sales of consumer goods, and investment in fixed assets have remained increased year -on -year. From the cumulative point of view, from January to July, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.5%year -on -year, accelerated by 0.1 percentage points from January to June; the total amount of import and export of goods accelerated by 1 percentage point year -on -year to June; A decrease of 0.2%year -on -year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January to June.

It is worth noting that economic transformation and upgrading continues. From January to July, the value -added of high -tech manufacturing increased by 9%year -on -year, investment in high -tech industry increased by 20.2%, the production index of information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased by 12.1%year -on -year, and online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%; 7 In the month, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 112.7%and 33.9%year -on -year ...

In the "three -driving carriage", the export performance is unique. Data show that the total imports and exports of goods in July increased by 16.6%year -on -year, a 2.3 percentage point from last month, a new high of this year. Among them, exports were 2244.6 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9%.

In terms of investment, from January to July, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 31981.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 5.7%. With the continuous increase in stable investment, the issuance and use of special bonds, accelerated promotion of major projects, and speed up infrastructure investment. From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 7.4%year -on -year. Recently, a number of major projects in Hubei, Shaanxi and other places have started construction. Jiangsu, Henan and other places have successively introduced specific measures to accelerate infrastructure construction ...

According to industry analysis, in the third quarter, the project construction conditions were further improved. In addition, various types of funds such as bonds, credit, innovative financial instruments, PPP (government and social capital cooperation) were accelerated in place, and more physical quantities were expected to form. "Investment, especially infrastructure investment, has become the main force of steady growth." Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, told China Business Daily that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to continue to rise, with 10%in the third quarter, and the central central center is about 9%; manufacturing is manufacturing; The industry ’s momentum or stable all year round, the growth center is about 6%.

Summer travel and other improvement of consumption still have a certain toughness

Although the growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods has slowed down, in general, the situation of consumer recovery has not changed. From the perspective of commodity categories, 15 categories of products above the limited amount have maintained growth, of which the growth rate of retail sales of 7 commodities accelerated accelerated than last month.

——The growth of upgrading consumption has accelerated. In July, the retail sales of grain, oil, food and beverage products increased by 6.2%and 3%year -on -year, overall stable; upgraded retail sales such as gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cultural office supplies increased by 22.1%and 10.1%, respectively. And 11.5%, accelerated than last month.

——The online retail is steadily rising, and offline store operations have improved. From January to July, the online retail sales of physical goods across the country increased by 5.7%year -on -year, accelerated by 0.1 percentage points from January to June. The retail sales of department stores and specialty stores narrowed 1 point and 1.8 percentage points than January -June.

——Su service consumption continues to recover, and the decline in catering income has narrowed. Under the context of precision prevention and control of the epidemic, the promotion of consumer policies will continue to be released. Residents' summer out of summer and dining activities has increased, and related consumption has also improved. In July, catering revenue decreased by 1.5%year -on -year, a narrowing of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. The average daily number of railway passengers in the country increased by 30.9%month -on -month.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from China Business Daily that the reason why consumption remains toughness is because of the improvement of summer travel consumption, but also because of the stable consumption policy. On the one hand, although the epidemic in July was repeated, the psychological impact of residents weakened, and offline travel travel continued to pick up. The hotel's occupancy rate and the national migration scale have improved. The accommodation industry, sports and entertainment industry, and the business activities index of the service industry in the scenic area have continued to rise. Dining consumption in July was-1.5%year-on-year, which was better than -4.0%last month. On the other hand, the semi -levy policy for car purchase tax continued to play a role. In July, car consumption increased by 9.7%year -on -year, which was a decline from 13.9%of the previous month and remained at a high level.

In addition, some places have gradually appeared through the issuing consumer coupons. Taking Beijing as an example, according to the first phase of the Beijing suburban accommodation consumption coupon, as of July 28, the accommodation reservation volume of Beijing suburbs increased by nearly 4 times month -on -month. Where to calculate where to go to the platform, the current consumer coupon of Beijing's suburbs has been used (based on booking) for more than 10 million yuan. In addition, the scenic spot tickets, surrounding catering and other related consumption, the leverage effect on the surrounding industries has reached 1: 11. "These situations show that once the epidemic is effectively controlled, the economic continuous recovery, the consumption potential of residents' suppression will be released, the willingness to consumption will increase, and the fireworks in life will gradually return." Fu Linghui said that from the later trend, the trend in the later period will look at it. Although there are some factors that restrict consumption, as long as they are efficiently coordinated with the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development, implement the consumer policy, actively help enterprises to relieve their rescue, and continue to improve the consumer environment. my country is expected to recover and develop well.

Consolidate the trend and strive to achieve the best results

On the day of economic data, the "interest rate cut" was expected to land. The central bank announced on August 15 that the day of the 400 billion yuan 1 -year interim borrowing convenience (MLF) operation and the 7 -day public market reverse repurchase operation was launched. The operation drops 10 basis points, far exceeding market expectations.

"Select the opportunity to introduce an incremental policy to further boost the confidence of the market subject." Wen Bin analyzed that the stability of the economy must focus on the existing policies' implementation, and the key points of prevention involve "keeping diplomatic relations, stabilizing people's livelihood" and "properly resolving some local villages and towns and towns and towns and towns. Bank risk.

my country's economy is in the key window of stabilizing recovery, and it is very important in the third quarter. How should the macro policy be forced next?

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on July 28th emphasized that "the requirements for comprehensive implementation of the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and safe development of the economic work in the second half of the year of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee were deployed. , Maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, strive to achieve the best results. "

"Expansion of infrastructure, stabilizing real estate, or main starting point within the year." Wu Chaoming told the China Commercial Daily reporter that in terms of monetary policy, the second half of the year needs to be balanced in multiple goals of stable, stable prices and stable exchange rates, but stable employment is still the first place. Improve the revenue expectations of enterprises and residents. The core is expected to focus on wide credit, and the 1 -year and 5 -year LPR interest rates are expected to be further reduced. In terms of fiscal policy, it is expected that the existing policy will be intensive in the third quarter, and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is expected to accelerate; the special bond limit incremental incremental tool will accelerate the landing and provide funding guarantee for infrastructure projects to effectively make up for the lack of social needs.

The central bank recently issued a report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the second quarter of 2022, which clearly increased the implementation of stable monetary policy, exerting dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, actively respond, boost confidence, do a good job of cross -cycle regulation, take into account both Short -term and long -term, economic growth and stable prices, internal equilibrium and external equilibrium, insist on not engaged in "large water drilling", do not exceed currency, and provide more powerful and higher quality support for the real economy.

"In the next stage, we must adhere to the general tone of steady progress, further efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, grasp the critical period of economic recovery, strive to expand domestic demand, strive to stabilize employment and stable prices, effectively guarantee and improve people's livelihood, consolidate the people's livelihood, consolidate the people's livelihood, consolidate Economic restoration foundation. "Fu Linghui said that under a series of policy measures, the economy is expected to recover better and run in a reasonable range.

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