The Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting will announce the possibility of 50 basis points in September

The Federal Reserve is expected to be announced on August 18th, Beijing time, the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Conference in July. The market also hopes to find the policy wind clues in it, a glimpse of the interest rate hike path in September.

Since 2022, in order to curb the inflation of the United States, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four consecutive times. From June to July, 75 basis points raised interest rate hikes, with a cumulative 150 basis points, the largest since 1980.

After interest rate hikes in July, US policy interest rates have reached 2.25%to 2.50%, which is at the level of "neutral interest rates" widely considered. Looking forward to the US monetary policy in the market, many people in the industry believe that the Fed will still adhere to the pace of tightening, and the policy interest rate will continue to move towards a "limited level", but the rhythm of interest rate hikes may slow down. From the perspective of the current economic indicators, the probability of reducing interest rate hikes to 50 basis points in September is slightly larger.

"Considering that the core inflation pressure in the third quarter of the United States is still large. In order to achieve the goal of controlling inflation in a reasonable range during the year, the Fed has a high possibility to maintain a tightening position." Chuancai Securities Chief Economist and Director of the Institute of Research Institute陈雳在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，虽然随着国际能源价格走低，7月份美国的CPI、PPI数据呈现出通胀增速放缓的迹象，但是核心通胀压力依然很大，住房成本和The cost of salary is still rising, and the toughness of inflation in the United States still exists.

In July, CPIs in the United States increased by 8.5%year -on -year and 9.1%before; PPI increased by 9.8%year -on -year, and the previous value was 11.3%. Driven from the recent decline in international crude oil prices, the growth rate of the two price indicators in July slowed down. Chen Li believes that the two data are better than market expectations and also reduces the possibility of the Fed's continued interest rate hike in September.

The recent survey results of the Bank of America show that more and more investors expect that the monetary policy of the central bank of the overseas economy will not turn after 2024. The survey visited 75 fund managers from the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and the United States, and its management assets had more than $ 1.25 trillion. More than one -third of the respondents believe that even if the growth rate of inflation in the United States has slowed down, monetary policy will still stick to tightening, which is increased by 25%compared with the survey of last month.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that in August, the long-term (5-10 years) of the University of Michigan's University of Inflation (initial value) rose from 2.9%to 3%; 1 year) Inflation is expected to decline slightly from 5.2%to 5%. Long -term inflation expectations are still pessimistic. In the short -term inflation expectations, the marginal improvement is expected to improve, but it is still higher than 4.6%a year ago. Therefore, there is still a necessity that the Federal Reserve has firmly raised interest rates and raised interest rates to "limited levels".

Ping An Securities believes that after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to "neutral interest rates", the US economic downside signal has become stronger, and the inflation growth rate has fallen under the adjustment of commodity prices. Since then The Fed's interest rate hike decision -making is more cautious. If the interest rate hike is too large at this time, the market decline is expected to rise too quickly, resulting in non -rising interest rates in US bonds, and the financial market conditions are not loose, which runs counter to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

"In other words, the Fed needs to make the market believe that this round of interest rate hike is strong. The Fed may raise interest rates in 50 basis points in September. In November and December -3.50%interval. "Ping An Securities believes.

However, many analysts also said that the possibility of the Fed's continued interest rate hikes in September cannot be ruled out. Obviously, after the disclosure of inflation data in July, Federal Reserve officials' speeches were partially hawkled, and it did not think that the interest rate hike depended on a certain data. Since the data such as inflation and employment in August still had not yet been announced before the September interest rate interest meeting, although the current Federal Reserve officials tend to treat the 50 basis points of interest rate hikes in September as the benchmark situation, if the growth rate of inflation will exceed expectations in the future, it will exceed expectations. Rising, there is still the possibility of 75 basis points in interest rate hikes.

"The possibility of the Federal Reserve's 75 -basis points in September has declined, but the interest rate hike still needs to pay attention to key data such as economic, inflation, and non -agricultural employment in August." Chen Li said.

[Editor in charge: Yan Yuxin]

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