The downward trend of packaging paper is suspended, and the key to the backbone of cultural paper is difficult to land. The key still depends on demand

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.08.15

Our reporter Wang Yan's continuously declining packaging paper market, since August, seems to have ushered in a turnaround: not only the downward trend of paper prices has begun to stabilize, but some paper factories have recently issued a price increase letter. It is limited to market weakness and other factors. Price increase. On the other hand, over half of August, a new round of price increases set off by cultural paper companies in early August. After all, the weak market demand is difficult to fight, and the order of paper mills is blocked. However, under the premise of high costs, the price of paper mills will continue. "In August, it was the turnaround month of the off -peak season. Although the demand increased from the previous month, the increase was limited. It is expected that the supply and demand of the paper industry in August is still game." Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Xu Ling told the Securities Daily reporter. Looking at the paper industry, the latest research report on Everbright Securities believes that at present, short -term pulp on the cost end will maintain a high level of shock, and it is expected that there may be inflection points in the fourth quarter. The demand is the overseas economic recovery, the demand is strong, and the domestic demand is also expected to improve. The market for market supply and demand is still the game since August 1, and the market for packaging paper (corrugated and box paper) has finally stabilized after a large downside down in July. Especially with the recently -scale paper mills, the market will be stopped in accordance with the previously issued shutdown letter. In addition, the price of upstream waste paper prices has signs of stopping a bounce, and the market will start the "interval collation" model. According to Zhuochuang Information Monitoring data, the market prices of corrugated and box paper in July were relatively obvious. Leading companies have repeatedly lowered paper prices, small and medium-sized paper factories fell, and the cumulative reduction of 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. The "Securities Daily" reporter noticed that after entering August, as some downstream packaging factories began to replenish inventory, and the order volume of paper mills in local areas has increased compared with the previous period. Recently, individual paper mills have begun to increase the price of original paper outlets. The price increase is not large, mostly 30 yuan/ton-50 yuan/ton, which is obviously meaningful. "Because the price of paper continues to decline, many small and medium -sized paper factories are on the edge of profit and loss or have lost money. In addition, the waste paper market has recently rebounded. The cost of raw materials for paper mills has risen. Mr. Zhou, the person in charge of a packaging paper factory in Zibo, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the market is still in the off -season, the demand has not turned strong, and the price of paper is slightly raised. Xu Ling introduced to the "Securities Daily" reporter that although the large -scale paper mills have implemented the maintenance plan one after another, the output decreases the expected expected during the early August, and the initial inventory of the market during the early August is large. In addition, the new production capacity is released in August. Essence In August, it was the transition month of corrugated and box panels. When the demand was not boosted, the supply and demand game remained, and the market may fluctuate in the market. The same supply and demand game is also obvious in the cultural paper market. From August 1st, cultural paper companies have set off a new round of increased price lifting operations. There is no helpless market demand for weakness, the trading is light, and the order of paper mills is blocked. The situation of such price increases is difficult to land, and the overall weakness of the cultural paper industry in the first half of this year has occurred many times. Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Zhang Yan introduced to a reporter from the Securities Daily that after entering the third quarter, a round of price increases from cultural paper companies in July was favored by some publishing orders. At that time, the price of paper mills was relatively optimistic. However, in August, due to entering the traditional off -season of cultural paper, publishing and printing orders entered the ending stage, social orders continued to be poor, and most market dealers also had weak feedback demand. All need to be purchased just needed. "In the short term, the upstream and downstream games of the cultural paper market are highlighted. Local operators are the cage funds, and the market price is likely to decline." Zhang Yan said. The prices of pulp are expected to usher in the disclosure of the disclosure of the inflection point paper industry. Based on the data of Oriental Fortune Choice, as of now, 8 of the 22 A -share listed companies that are the first level of the paper industry have disclosed the performance trailer, of which 6 Family companies expect their performance to decline sharply, and the two companies are expected to lose money for the first time. The predicament of the industry in the trough period in the first half of the year is evident. The recent market market in the packaging paper industry and the cultural paper industry also shows that since the third quarter of the paper industry has entered, it still faces a lot of pressure on supply and demand. So when can the industry go out of the trough? When can I get an inflection point? "Generally speaking, the cyclical fluctuations of the profitability of the paper industry are driven by the difference between the price of paper and raw materials." The latest research report of Everbright Securities pointed out. During the interview, many industry analysts also believe that the industry should realize the reversal of the predicament on the one hand to see the next trend of pulp prices, and more importantly, it depends on the recovery of demand. From the perspective of the current supply and demand pattern and competition pattern of the paper industry, Everbright Securities analysis believes that the demand is recovering both domestic and foreign. In comparison, the recovery of overseas demand The demand in Southeast Asia is particularly strong, and the overseas supply is significantly insufficient. Domestic leading manufacturers have increased their exports, and the year -on -year growth rate of paper exports in my country has continued to increase. Chenming Paper previously stated in the performance forecast that in the first half of the year, the company was seizing the opportunities for insufficient supply of overseas markets and strived to open up the international market. Bohui Paper, which is also accelerating the development of the international market, also said that the company's export proportion has continued to increase. Regarding the next recovery of domestic demand, Everbright Securities believes that although the overall domestic demand is weakly affected by the epidemic, it is expected to improve.

From the perspective of the segmented industry, the demand for cultural paper is weak, corrugated and cabinet paper will be weak as the overall demand is not yet recovered; the downstream demand for white cardboard and special paper is relatively good.Regarding the follow -up trend of the cost end, many institutions have judged that short -term pulp prices will still maintain a high level of shock, but it is expected to occur in the fourth quarter.It is understood that the current production and sales of major pulp factories in the world have been restored, and the new production capacity is promoted as planned. It is expected that the supply of pulp will be gradually increased in the third quarter of 2022.Everbright Securities pointed out that at the downward cycle of the slurry price, the profitability of the large paper faucet will be significantly repaired.Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map.com