Unexpected "interest rate cuts"!Both interest rates double -down 10 basis points, what signals to release?

Beyond market expectations! On August 15th, the latest MLF (convenient for medium -term borrowing) was released, not only the operation scale contracted, but also the interest rate also reduced simultaneously. "I didn't expect MLF to cut interest rates so fast." Several markets surprised it.

According to the announcement, on the same day, the central bank's public market launched a 1 -year MLF operation of 400 billion yuan and a 7 -day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan. The bid interest rates were 2.75%and 2.0%, respectively, both decreased by 10 basis points from the previous decrease. This is the second time that the MLF interest rate has been reduced since this year. With this reduction, the LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) quotation this month is also expected to continue to decline, further stimulating the credit needs of residents and enterprises.

Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst of Everbright Bank, told reporters that the central bank's operation released the signal of protecting the real economy and stabilizing currency and wide credit. From the recent announcement of data, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 has reached a 6 -year high. However, the new credit and social integration have slowed over expectations, reflecting that the current currency supply has remained sufficient, and the demand for the real economy financing is weak. It still needs to be further boosted.

Dongfang Jincheng Chief Macro analyst Wang Qing said that this is directly related to the recent economic restoration momentum and the recycled twists and turns of the process of wide credit, showing that the current monetary policy is still based on steady growth. Tightly, none of the domestic central bank's policy interest rate reduction constitutes substantial obstacles.

The second time this year has been lowered

On August 15, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the banking system reasonable and abundant, the People's Bank of China launched a 400 billion yuan MLF operation on August 15, 2022 (including the continuation of MLF expiration on August 16) and 2 billion yuan The open market reverse repurchase operation fully meets the needs of financial institutions.

This is another decontering of MLF interest rates after 10 basis points in January this year, and the 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate is adjusted simultaneously. In the context of the continued observation period of monetary policy, the market is more surprised by the "interest rate cut". Many people in the industry believe that this is mainly to boost the needs of the real economy financing.

"The recently announced financial data reflects the weak domestic physical financing demand. The central bank has reduced the MLF policy interest rate to promote financial institutions to further reduce the cost of real economy financing, stimulate the vitality of micro -entity, and promote steadily recovery of consumption and investment." Zhou Maohua told reporters.

According to data released by the central bank on August 12, the new RMB loan was 679 billion yuan in July, a year -on -year increase of 404.2 billion yuan; the increase in social financing in July was 756.1 billion yuan, an increase of 319.1 billion yuan year -on -year. "In July, the scale of credit and social integration fell sharply, and the year -on -year growth rate also declined. The overall market expectations were not as good as market expectations." Wang Qing said that the main reason behind it was that the current economic restoration progress was slow, and the demand for real economy financing was insufficient.

In order to effectively stimulate the demand for loan in the real economy and consolidate the momentum of economic restoration, the government or enterprises need to further increase leverage. Among them, the further growth of corporate financing needs to stimulate and cultivate credit demand through the decline in financing costs. In August, it meant that by reducing financing costs to stimulate the demand for real economy financing, it is becoming an important point for the current policy.

In addition, Wang Qing also mentioned that the recent macroeconomic restoration momentum is relatively slow, and monetary policy needs further effort. In July, the official manufacturing PMI index fell to the contraction range again, and the service industry PMI also reduced significantly, showing that the macroeconomic restoration momentum slowed down; at the same time, macro data just released in July showed that industrial production, consumption and consumption and consumption and The growth rate of investment has decreased compared with last month, showing that the recent economic downturn pressure has increased. "In order to ensure the momentum of economic restoration in the second half of the year and the overall situation of employment, macro policies, including monetary policies, need to take a timely shot to increase counter -cyclical regulation and moderate stimulation of total demand."

At the same time, as an anchor of the LPR quotation interest rate, MLF interest rate reduction indicates that the LPR interest rate will be lowered to reduce the LPR interest rate this month, and then transmit it to the mortgage market. Some people in the industry have analyzed that since July, the property market has turned cold again, driving the interest rate of mortgage mortgages through policy interest rate cuts, which has become the key to reversing market expectations and promoting the property market as soon as possible.

Overall, Wang Qing believes that the policy of interest rate cuts in August fully shows that the current monetary policy is based on steady growth. The domestic structural inflation pressure and the tightening of overseas central banks have not constituted a substantial obstacle to the policies of the domestic central bank. Essence This also means that the current market liquidity that is currently in a state of partiality will continue for a period of time. Next, the regulatory level may increase the assessment efforts and promote wide currency to wide credit transmission.

In this context, the future loan interest rate will be further declined, and structural monetary policy tools and newly established policy financial instruments will be fully made. Some views are expected to rise significantly in August. GDP growth returns to the foundation as soon as possible.

"Shrinkage" guidance of capital interest rate return

In addition to the reduction of interest rates, one of the attention in this MLF operation is that the market attention is to continue to do. Data show that on August 16, the MLF expired scale was 600 billion yuan. After the 400 billion yuan hedging to the expected period, the net recovery was 200 billion yuan.

This also broke the equivalent model of the previous four consecutive months. Wang Qing analyzed that the current market liquidity is at a significant level. In July, the average yield of the 1 -year interbank deposit existence of commercial banks (AAA) was 2.21%. Operation interest rate. As a result, the MLF bidding volume of the first -level dealers in August will not be ruled out, and the MLF shrinkage will be continued. Zhou Maohua also told reporters that the continuation of the MLF shrinkage in August was mainly affected by two factors. On the one hand, financial data reflects that the current currency supply is sufficient, and the central bank's shrinkage continues to make MLF to stabilize the currency supply. The abundant market liquidity has led to a decline in market interest rates. Ten years ago, the rate of return on Treasury bonds dropped to below the 1 -year MLF interest rate. To a certain extent, the organization's demand for MLF was weakened.

One more direct reason is that the phenomenon of funds is more obvious in the past for a period of time. Earlier, at the low level of capital interest rates, due to the small fluctuation of long -term interest rates, leveraged premium became the first choice for market institutional strategies, the phenomenon of "rolling overnight" in the bond market intensified, and the average daily transaction volume of the inter -bank pledge repurchase frequently broke through frequently. 6 trillion yuan.

"The long -term capital interest rate operation has led to the rise in the leverage of the debt market may have attracted the attention of the central bank." CITIC Securities chief economist clearly told the First Financial reporter that the central bank had previously adjusted the inverse repurchase operation scale to achieve this. The continuation of this reduction will further help reduce the phenomenon of funds and guide the flow of funds to the real economy.

At the end of July and early August, the central bank frequently carried out inverse repurchase operations and was not large. It was flexibly switched between 3 billion yuan, 7 billion yuan, 12 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan, and 2 billion yuan, triggering discussions in the industry. At that time, some analysts said that the core purpose of the central bank's flexible operation was to dispel the consistent expectations of the market's continuous looser of capital, and then affect the consistent strategy of market leverage.

Subsequently, the central bank clearly stated in the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the Second quarter of 2022" released on August 10 that it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in various uncertain factors in international and domestic, in -depth research and judging the liquidity supply and demand status of the banking system, and improving operations. Prospective, flexibility and effectiveness, stabilize market expectations, balance internal and external balance, which further releases relevant signals.

According to the central bank's monetary policy report, based on the "low repurchase" operation on the previous period, the MLF will be continued slightly in August, and the convergence signal will be released margin. Gradually guide capital interest rates to converge to policy interest rates. "Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed.

Wang Yifeng, an analyst of the China Everbright Securities Banking Industry, also said that since early August, R001's daily transaction volume has exceeded 6 trillion yuan, which will exacerbate the vulnerability of the capital of the interbank market. Once the liquidity will converge in the future, the high leverage rate of leverage rate It will cause great fluctuations in capital interest rates. In this regard, the central bank may take corresponding measures to respond: on the one hand, the state -owned bank's overnight financial finance will be guided; on the other hand, the amount of reduction is continued to make MLF and the marginal release signal is released.

Responsible editor: Wang Shidan | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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