The faucet rebounded nearly 40%!Gold configuration opportunities to reproduce?Fund Manager: Follow the three core signals

Since mid -to -late July, gold, which has been shocked for more than four months, has finally begun to rebound strongly.

In the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, the price of gold has continued to fluctuate since March, and the gold ETF that tracked the price of gold has fallen by more than 10%from the high point. At the same time, the more elastic gold stocks have also been regulated. 30%.

However, recently, the gold price and gold stocks both turned on the rebound. COMEX gold once rose more than 8%. Some gold stocks rebounded nearly 40%in less than a month. In this regard, a number of people in the industry said that the signal of the edge of the Fed's monetary policy is the main cause of the gold rebound of this round of gold. The signal of the transformation of the "stagnation" period to the "recession" period is clear, and gold or reproduction of the configuration opportunities in the second half of 2018.

The latest news shows that on the evening of August 10, the United States announced the latest CPI data. The United States in July CPI rose by 8.5%year -on -year, better than the market expectations of 8.7%, and a significant drop of 60 basis points from the previous value. The inflation data was obviously obvious Slowing, the market believes that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike is expected to cool down, and COMEX gold has risen by more than 20 US dollars.

Gold stock and gold price both rebound

On August 10, the gold concept stocks have strongly strengthened. As of the close, Zhongrun Resources rose daily limit, Chifeng Gold rose 9.95%, Intime Gold rose 5.61%, and gold stocks such as Hunan Gold and Shandong Gold rose.

From the perspective of stretching, the gold stocks have opened a strong rebound since mid -late July. Taking Chifeng Gold and Intime Gold as an example, the two stocks have touched the stage lows on July 12 and July 18, respectively. So far, it has rebounded nearly 40%of the time. , Set a new high in the past two years.

At the same time, in terms of gold prices, as of 23 pm on August 10, COMEX Gold News $ 1817/ounce, an increase of about $ 139 from the low point on July 21, an increase of more than 8%; To 1807 US dollars/ounce, it increased by more than 7%compared with July 21; domestic SGE Gold 9999 was reported at 390.58 yuan/gram, and the lower point rebounded more than 6%.

Related gold ETFs are also rising. According to Wind data statistics, there are 16 gold ETFs in the entire market, which mainly tracks the price performance of RMB gold prices through the gold spot contract invested in the Shanghai Gold Exchange. As of August 10, 16 Gold ETFs rose 4.5%since July 21, of which the Shanghai Gold ETF and Hua'an Gold ETF rose 4.72%and 4.58%, respectively.

Dr. Xu Zhiyan, manager of Hua'an Gold ETF Fund, believes that the core of this round of gold rebound is that the recent US economic data has weakened, and the marginal relaxation signal of the "pigeon" in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has gradually shifted from the previous "stagnation transaction" to "recession decline Trading ", and gold is a very important asset allocation variety with an important period of economic recession.

In terms of economic pressure, the annual rate of US GDP growth rates has been declining for two consecutive quarters, which has complied with the definition of economic and technological recession. Although the employment data in July is strong, it is difficult to say that the US economy has entered a deep decline, but based on a series of forward -looking indicators, including European and American PMI data falls below the dry line, the US consumer confidence index drops to new lows, mortgage interest rates are sold on real estate The negative impact of data, the duration spread, and the spread of credit spreads, etc. The probability of the US economic recession is gradually enlarging.

In terms of policy expectations, at the Federal Reserve interest conference, Federal Reserve officials have shown pigeons in the economy and inflation, the US economic uncertainty has increased, and the supply chain issue is no longer mentioned. Xu Zhiyan believes that the July meeting marked the Federal Reserve's goal from "controlling inflation" to the two targets of "inflation+avoiding recession". Policy camera choices were important changes in important ideas worth paying attention to. Looking forward to the second half of the year, he judged that inflation is still tough, and the economy may enter the recession period, which eventually leads to the Federal Reserve's pigeon.

The commonality and special characteristics of the market

Both gold stocks and gold prices rebound, and the logic behind it has both commonality and special characteristics.

Wang Xiang, the fund manager of Boshi Gold ETF, pointed out that under the booster of a series of factors such as the Fed's relaxation of interest rate hike rhythm, gold has obtained short -term funding blessings.

According to Wind data statistics, many gold ETFs have been growing significantly since June. Specifically, as of August 9, 11 of the 16 gold ETFs have been purchased in the past two months. Among them, Boshi Gold ETF has increased by 268 million in the past two months. The price of 3.75 yuan has been calculated, and the net inflow is about 10.05 billion yuan. At the same time, Hua An's Gold ETF has increased by 254 million copies in the past two months, and the net inflow of about 960 million yuan is calculated at the average transaction price of the interval.

In addition, the global central bank is continuing to increase its holdings of gold assets. According to data released by the World Gold Association, the global central bank is still maintaining the pace of rapid holdings of gold assets. Among them, the global official gold reserves increased by 180 tons in the second quarter, and the total net purchase in the first half of the year reached 270 tons, which was the largest single -quarter in the past year.

Xu Zhiyan pointed out that the domestic gold ETF tracks domestic spot gold prices, and the rise in gold prices will directly reflect the changes in the ETF price; while the gold stocks reflect the performance of listed companies with gold as the main business. On the one hand It has a positive correlation with the price trend of gold, and on the other hand, gold stocks are also affected by investor emotions and the trend of the A -share market. Take Chifeng Gold, which has recently rebounded rapidly, as an example. The company released the semi -annual report on August 9th. In the first half of the year, the net profit attributable to her mother was 411 million yuan, a year -on -year and month -on -month increase of 2.5%and 35.99%. Cinda Securities believes that on the one hand, due to the significant growth of operating income, on the other hand, the company's Vientiane Mining Industry of Laos continues to close the recovery rate of gold mining and mining, which has greatly increased the comprehensive recovery rate of gold in gold. The left and right increases to about 70%, and the sales cost of gold units decreased by 5.50%compared with the same period of the previous year. The company continues to increase core product resource reserves and output through internal exploration storage and extension mergers and acquisitions. At the same time, it continuously reduces product production costs through quality improvement and efficiency, and its anti -risk and sustainable development capacity will be further enhanced.

At the same time, Xu Zhiyan also reminded that the golden stocks fluctuated more compared to the gold ETF, and due to the correlation of the stock, the gold stocks may also be adjusted when the market is not good. In effect, investors can choose according to their own risk appetite and investment portfolio.

Or reproduce the configuration opportunities in the second half of 2018

Is the recent gold market rebound or completely reversed? How will the continuity and strength of the market evolve?

Wang Xiang believes that although the golden assets continue to rebound with the support of geographical risk aversion, the short -term upward range may be relatively limited. He said that under the two target systems of the Fed's employment and inflation, the current data environment means the persistence and end rate of the interest rate hike cycle or exceed expectations.

Xu Zhiyan's point of view is more optimistic. It admits that this round of gold may reproduce the configuration opportunities in the second half of 2018, with good sustainability and medium and long -term configuration opportunities.

Similar to the current macro environment, in 2018, it also faces interest rate hikes and pressure -shrinking pressures, and an important signal of the deadline spread. According to historical statistics, after each 10 -year US bond and 2 -year US bond term have been hung up, the pressure of economic recession increases, and the Federal Reserve may end the interest rate hike cycle. Therefore, in the process of turning to the pigeon faction, the interest rate of the US debt length enters the top range and the US dollar upward trend weakens, and gold will have a good performance.

However, Xu Zhiyan also said that at the current third quarter time point, there are actually many signals waiting to be verified, and the gold is shocking in the short term. The grasp of the core macro variables in the future needs to be closely tracking the following points:

First of all, if the 10 -year US bond interest rate and the 3 -month US bond interest rate occur, if there is an inverted hook, it will further strengthen the time limit interest poorly, and the point of interest is gradually advanced at the end of the interest rate hike cycle;

Secondly, once the number of non -agricultural employment and unemployment rate data in the United States deteriorate, it will substantially confirm the signal of the US economy recession;

Third, if the downlink trend of the US CPI data is confirmed, the inflation is relieved, and the necessity of inflation is weakened by raising interest rates.

If these signals appear above, it will indicate that the overseas macro cycle will change from the "stagflation" period to the "recession" period, thereby continuing to strengthen the logic of gold.

Editor -in -chief: Wang Lulu

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