Cultural Management Scripture (65) ｜ Outlook for repayment in advance

Do you want to repay your loan in advance?

Recently, there are more discussions on whether the mortgage needs to be repaid in advance on the market, especially after the Bank of Communications once announced that it has collected 1%of compensation for early repayment loans.

On August 12, the central bank released the financial statistics report in July 2022. The disclosure of some major data helps to analyze this problem.

【one】

Data show that at the end of July, the balance of the broad currency (M2) was 2.5781 trillion yuan, an increase of 12%year -on -year. The balance of narrow currency (M1) was 6.618 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%year -on -year, and the growth rate was 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points higher than the same period last month and the same period last year.

In July, RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan, an increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year. From the perspective of the sub -department, household loans increased by 121.7 billion yuan, of which short -term loans decreased by 26.9 billion yuan, and medium- and long -term loans increased by 148.6 billion yuan. Enterprise (affairs) loans increased by 287.7 billion yuan, of which short -term loans decreased by 354.6 billion yuan, medium and long -term loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 313.6 billion yuan.

The increase in social financing in July was 756.1 billion yuan, 319.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, the RMB loan issued by the real economy increased by 408.8 billion yuan, an increase of 430.3 billion yuan year -on -year.

At the end of July, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 25.753 trillion yuan, an increase of 11%year -on -year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB deposits was 25.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4%year -on -year, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 2.8 percentage points higher than the same period last month and the same period last year.

In July, RMB deposits increased by 44.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan year -on -year. Among them, residents' deposits decreased by 338 billion yuan, non -financial corporate deposits decreased by 1.04 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 486.3 billion yuan, and non -bank financial institutions deposits increased by 804.5 billion yuan.

Generally speaking, the number of new credit and social integration increase data in July is not as good as market expectations.

【two】

M2 represents the total amount of funds on the market. M2 has reached a new year -on -year growth rate this year, maintaining a double -digit growth rate for 4 consecutive months. This shows that in order to maintain liquidity to support economic development, the central bank has maintained a relatively loose monetary policy. There is a lot of money in the bank, and of course I hope to go out more.

In July, the loan of the household department increased by 284.2 billion yuan from the same period last year. This reflects the problems of the two aspects. One is that the short -term loan is reduced by 26.9 billion yuan, reflecting the decline in the willingness of consumer loans, and the other is that the medium -to -long -term loan increases less than 268.072 billion yuan from the previous month, indicating that the customers who buy a house to buy a house are significantly reduced. The so -called weakening is very obvious in this data. Looking back, in fact, all parts of the country are introducing the market -rescue policy throughout the country, but at least from the market feedback, it takes a long time to build a bottom -up process.

In terms of the real economy, corporate loans increased by 430.3 billion yuan year -on -year, showing that the willingness to invest in enterprises has declined. At the same time, the deposit of not banks' financial institutions increased by 804.5 billion yuan, which means that many companies have funding for funds.

At the end of July, the balance of RMB deposits was 25.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4%year-on-year. This speed was almost close to the growth rate of M2, which shows that although the residents' deposits have decreased in July Enterprises, they all tightened their own money bags.

【three】

The increase in loans in the residential department has always been a barometer with expected strength. In the second quarter report of the central bank, it is also very obvious.

According to data from the central bank, the balance of personal housing loans in the second quarter of this year was 3.886 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of only 6.2%. In the first quarter, personal housing loans were 3.884 trillion, and they were discovered at each other. In the second quarter, housing loans increased by only 20 billion. Under normal circumstances, the increase should be more than 100 billion.

The increase in loans that can be ignored almost showed that while the loan decreases, the loan repayment in advance is actually not a minority among the stock buyers. In the case of a significant decrease in rising house prices and the impact of the epidemic, and the "black swan" incident, the active repayment of loans in advance has actually become a natural choice for individuals and families to avoid harm.

After the mortgage interest rate was reduced, the minimum mortgage interest rate was 4.25%, but for stock loans, it was still about 5%or even higher. At the same time, the annualized interest rate of banks' wealth management is far from covering a mortgage interest rate. Although the minimum interest rate is only 3.7%, the lowest rate is complicated and existing, so it seems simple, cost -effective and safe to repay the loan in advance.

To this end, although few banks follow up the practice of Bank of Communications, they generally extend the time limit for handling, and even delay customer repayment with limited quotas. After all, mortgages have always been the best and stable business of banks. In the case of a significant decline in loans, the repayment of loans to banks has brought new pressure to bank operations.

Therefore, the "Cultural Management Scriptures" once again appealed to reduce interest rates for existing mortgages as soon as possible. Because even if it does not fall, customers will drop by themselves by repay their loans in advance. After the central bank's financial data was announced in July, this trend was even more clear. This is also consistent with the strategy of "strengthening the implementation of stable monetary policies, giving full play to the total amount and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, actively responding, boosting confidence, and doing a good job of cross -cyclical adjustment."

【Four】

The willingness to loan is decreased, and the significant increase in deposits will once again highlight another domestic disease: the investment channel is narrow. The most significant feature is that even if the property market has not improved, the stock market still asks for a few people -A stock transaction volume is still hovering under 1 trillion yuan. In the eyes of many people, investing in the stock market is almost equal to going. In the context of the registration system that is about to be fully implemented, this situation needs to be changed urgently. In the violent turbulence, you may wish to listen to observations from Dalio. As the founder of the bridge water fund, which is famous in the crisis, it has accurately predicted the "Black Friday" in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the European debt crisis in 2010, and achieved amazing benefits by shorting. At present, the size of Qiaoshui Management assets exceeds 150 billion US dollars.

In the book "Principles: Copper World Order", Dalio showed the changes in the economic cycle of all countries in the past 500 years in the past 500 years. In an exclusive interview with "New Fortune", he said that as long as China's policies pursue the advantages I mentioned earlier, such as education level, cost competitiveness, technological innovation, capital market system, the use of currency around the world, military strength, etc. The long -term fundamentals of China are attractive, and I will be optimistic about China for a long time. I compare the situation of China with the situation of other countries. I judge that China's assets are relatively cheap now. China's challenges are indeed very large, but it is not greater than the United States, Europe, and most major economies. The most important influencing factor is the ability of national leadership. I think that Chinese leadership is more capable than most countries.

He said, "In the fierce competition with the United States and other countries, I think it is wrong to not bet in China, just like it is wrong in the United States. I am allowed to invest in China, and I will continue to be a long -term investor in China. "He particularly reminds investors that do not hold cash, do not focus on any investment in any one -in other words, be good at decentralizing decentralization. invest.

Dalio's judgment undoubtedly provides new dimensions for people to review A shares, especially in the context of the registration system that is expected to drive science and technology innovation. Of course, A shares themselves need to be self -reliance -thus matching the economic status of China's great powers, and let more people share the dividends in the capital market.

Source ｜ Jingbao APP

Reporter: Hu Wen

Figure: Xu Qingdong

Edit: Chen Zhangwei

- END -