Bubble Mart has a higher market value of 80 % of the blind box economy?

"Blind Box First Stock" Bubble Mart International Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Bubble Mart, 9992.HK) "debut is the pinnacle". Data from Flush Shun shows that in early 2021, it reached about HK $ 150 billion in a market value history and about 107.6 Hong Kong dollars per share. In July this year, the market value fell to less than 30 billion Hong Kong dollars. The stock price fell below 20 Hong Kong dollars in the same month, and the cumulative decline in July exceeded 50%. On August 12, its stock price was reported at HK $ 18.60, with a market value of 25.995 billion Hong Kong dollars, shrinking more than 80 % compared with the peak market value. The market value shrinks and the stock price "diving" is accompanied by 10,000 "retreat" notes and more than 8,000 consumer complaints. Behind this is the sudden braking of Matt's performance in the first half of the year. Analysts believe that the blind box market is tending to develop rationally. Is the tide play hot?

Growth performance is difficult to block the stock price fluctuation market value is not as high as the highest point of 20 %

Although the performance of Bubble Matt is leading the industry, it still cannot stop market fluctuations. The financial report in 2021 shows that its revenue in 2021 was 4.49 billion yuan, an increase of 78.7%year -on -year; the net profit after adjustment was 1.002 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 69.6%. The cumulative registered members reached 1.958 million, and 12.18 million registered members were added, a record high. In addition, 106 new stores opened in mainland China; online channels were developing rapidly, and the pumping machine achieved revenue of RMB 898 million, an increase of 92.6%year -on -year.

On July 16, Bubble Mart went out to the first shop in Tokyo, Japan. Just the day before, it released the "Profit Warning Announcement" that it is expected that the income in the first half of this year may increase by no less than 30%compared with the same period last year, and the group profit will decrease by no more than 35%compared with the same period last year.

There are two main points of the explanation of performance fluctuations in Bubble Mart. First of all, in the first half of 2022, due to the repeated domestic epidemic, the company suspended the operation of several offline stores and robotics stores in some areas (mainly first- and second -tier cities). The timeliness of logistics has affected online sales, as well as weakening of passenger flow and consumer intentions, leading to a decline in performance growth. Secondly, the company's initial business expansion has led to an increase in expenses compared with the same period last year, so the profit will also decline, but after the epidemic is good, the proportion of this part of the cost is expected to decline in the future.

After the profit warning was released in the first half of the year, Bubble Mart immediately opened a large repurchase. From July 18th to August 11th, a total of 21.397 million shares were repurchased, with a cumulative repurchase amount of about 382 million Hong Kong dollars. However, the Baidu Stock Market showed that on August 12, the market value of Bubble Mart was HK $ 25.995 billion, only 17.33%of the nearly 150 billion Hong Kong dollars at the peak of the market value, shrinking more than 80%.

Thousands of "retreat" notes are no longer lively second -hand

One is the market value "jumping cliff" and the other end is the user's retreat.

There are more than 10,000 notes on "Bubble Mart's Put" on Xiaohongshu. Ms. Li, who claims to be "Old Leek", told Yangcheng Evening News reporter that she spent a total of 50,000 to 60,000 yuan on the bubble Mate, ranging from tens to hundreds of yuan. Due to too much investment, she finally decided to leave only her favorite products, and the rest was sold on the idle fish. At present, there are still 193 blind box products left on the hand. Jiangsu user "Yongye Baoca" said in the notes that the blind box that purchased can be put on the "10,000 yuan wall". At first, I liked the unknown and surprises of the blind box. It will be lost, and the fun has changed, so it is "retreating most of the pit."

In addition to returning to rational consumption, the reason for "retreating" also involves doubts about safety and quality issues. Some consumers report that the bubble Matt doll bought back has a irritating odor and suspected that the formaldehyde exceeds the standard. The hair drawing reflects the defects such as cracks and dyeing of the dolls, and there are many posts that disappoint the quality control problems. In the black cat complaint, as of press time, there were more than 8,800 complaints related to Matt, of which more than 6,700 showed "completed".

In the secondary market, doll preservation is declining. Some analysts believe that if the premium space for second -hand platforms decreases, players will "retreat" one after another. Several bubble Mart interviewed by the Yangcheng Evening News reporter said that the price of some second -hand products was equivalent to the new product "back". The Space Molly Watermelon, which was fired to 14,000 yuan, was released at a limited amount of 1000%of the watermelon. Now it can be taken off in the idle fish. The ordinary model is "cabbage price" in the secondary market. On Xiaohongshu and idle fish, some original price of 59 yuan, 69 yuan, 79 yuan, 89 yuan, and newly unpolished blind boxes, the unit price is more than ten or twenty yuan, some of which have been demolished for the unit price is cheaper. To individual digits. "The original price was 138 yuan, and I bought three second -hand only 100 yuan." Miss Li said.

Is the industry standardized whether the heat box heat is tide?

Behind the bubble Mate users began to retreat, showing that blind box operations are entering the orbit limited by regulations and drove to a more rational direction. For example, the "Guidelines for the Guidelines for the Compliance of the Blind Box Business Activity" and "Guidelines for the Council of the Production and Management Activities of Blind Box in Ganzhou" and other regulations, all of which are on the price of the blind box, the drawing rules, the guarantee mechanism, the after -sales, the protection mechanism of the minor protection mechanism, etc. Regulations. Among them, Shanghai stipulates that the price of a single blind box generally does not exceed 200 yuan.

Blind box pricing has been criticized for a long time. Zhang Yi, CEO and chief analyst of Ai Media Consulting Group, told Yangcheng Evening News reporter that it is not recommended to give financial attributes such as blind boxes or use it. When the value and price of the product are seriously deviated, it will definitely cause financial risks for consumers, which is commonly known as "cut leeks", which is also a very big harm to the brand. Therefore, consumers need to think rationally and carefully, and it is not recommended that enterprises letting or guiding such consumer behaviors. Domestic tide playing consumption is becoming rational. Is the fever of blind boxes ebb?

On the one hand, Mart's eyes began to turn to foreign tide -playing markets to "heated" products. At the 2021 performance conference, Wang Ning, the founder and CEO of Bubble Mart, said that he hoped that overseas revenue would reach 50%of the overall income in the future. According to the official website information, the bubble Mart ’s overseas business has been accelerated in an all -round way since this year. It has now entered 23 overseas countries and regions including South Korea, Japan, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Singapore. However, the financial report in 2021 showed that its overseas sales revenue was 137.4 million yuan, an increase of 85.2%year -on -year, accounting for only 3%of total revenue. From the perspective of income, the road to the sea is still a long way to go.

On the other hand, you may forget the blind box, and IP is the core competitiveness. Wang Ning once said: "We don't think that bubbles' achievements are just because of the carrier of the blind box, and the bubble Matt has grown rapidly. The core element is still the IP itself." Some opinions believe that "Molly has no bubble Mate after no bubble Mate after molly. "It is not unreasonable. The financial report in 2021 showed that the proportion of revenue of well -known" C position "Molly fell from 41.6%in 2018 to 15.7%in 2021, and this is already the highest income among IP.

How to continue to improve the proportion of income from my own IP57.6%and exclusive IP17.2%, and create more IPs with long -term influence. Perhaps it is the top priority of blind box companies headed by Bubble Mate.

In this regard, Zhang Yi said: "The IP created by Bubble Mart has a certain power in the past. You can learn from Disney and other scriptures. Learn them to use film and television works, book publishing to drive the three -dimensional model of other products such as toys. This pair of bubbles. Mart has certain reference value. "

- END -