The central bank announced data!Is there a possibility of adjustment of LPR above 5 years?

On August 12, the People's Bank of China released the financial statistics report in July 2022.

Data show that in July, RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan, an increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year. The increase in social financing in July was 756.1 billion yuan, 319.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Generally speaking, the number of new credit and social integration increase data in July is not as good as market expectations.

However, at the end of July, the balance of the broad currency (M2) was 2.5781 trillion yuan, an increase of 12%year -on -year, and it hit a new year -on -year growth rate of this year, which also means that M2 has maintained a double -digit growth rate for 4 consecutive months.

Experts point out that downlink fluctuations in financial data in July are mainly reflected in the problem of insufficient loan demand. In the next step, the macro -control policy should focus on effectively stimulating the demand for loan in real economy and consolidate economic restoration momentum. On the one hand, to promote the effective transmission of wide currencies towards wide credit, you can consider guiding the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) quotation to reduce the price of enterprises and residents. On the other hand, fully tap the potential of various structural monetary policy tools, accelerate relevant loans, and at the same time, implement policy and development financial instruments as soon as possible, and support the speed up of infrastructure investment.

The scale of new credit and social integration in July is less than expected

After the data recovered in May and June, the new credit and social finance data in July turned to less than the year -on -year increase. Among them, the new RMB loan increased by 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year. Essence Several experts believe that the overdraft effects of the loan season at the end of the June loan season, the weak current loan demand, and the fluctuation of the real estate market fluctuations have caused the financial data in July to be less than expected. Merk performance.

From the perspective of new credit structure, in July, residents and enterprises (affairs) industry units showed short -term loans, and medium- and long -term loans increased less year -on -year. Data show that in July, household loans increased by 121.7 billion yuan, of which short -term loans decreased by 26.9 billion yuan, and medium -to -long -term loans increased by 148.6 billion yuan. The medium- and long -term loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 313.6 billion yuan.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank (3.640, -0.01, -0.27%), analyzed that the reduction of short-term loans in the resident department in July reflects the decline in the willingness to consumer loans, and the medium- and long-term loans increase less than the previous month, indicating that the real estate market is still touching The bottom process. In July, the loan data of the enterprise (affairs) industry units reflects the lack of financing demand for enterprises, and the scale of bill financing flushes again.

He also pointed out that in July, the proportion of residential loans and corporate loans accounted for 30%and 70%of new loans, and the proportion of 48%and 52%in the same period last year. Essence

From the perspective of the increase in the increase in social financing scale in July, the RMB loan loan and government bond financing of the main contribution of social integration and government bonds have previously reduced. Data show that the RMB loan issued in the real economy in July increased by 408.8 billion The yuan, an increase of 43.3 billion yuan year -on -year; the net financing of government bonds was 399.8 billion yuan, a year -on -year more than 217.8 billion yuan. In addition, data such as corporate bond financing and outlet bill financing also performed well.

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，7月新增社融规模环比大幅下降，主要是受季节性因素及6月末专项债基本发完影响，但同比少增及月末存量增速下滑则表明, The monthly wide credit process regeneration twists and turns.

The economic recovery is unstable, and effective demand is to be improved

Overall, at the end of July, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 and social financing scale, and the balance of loans remained above 10%, showing that finance maintained a greater support for the real economy. Especially since April, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 has reached 10.5%, 11.1%, 11.4%, and 12%, respectively, which has continuously exceeded the new high this year.

However, Wang Qing pointed out that the growth rate of M2 at the end of July accelerated compared with the end of last month, mainly due to the continued large scale of fiscal tax refund, and it did not completely represent the acceleration of wide credit.

In addition, the year -on -year growth rate of narrow currency (M1) at the end of July was 6.7%, the growth rate accelerated by 0.9 percentage points compared with the end of the last month, indicating that the production and investment activities of enterprises in the economic repair process continued to increase. However, the gap between M1 and M2 is still large. Wang Qing believes that M1 continues to be at a low level, mainly because the current property market is at a low operation process, and the sales of commercial housing are small, and the short -term deposit of the enterprise is greatly affected. insufficient.

Wen Bin said that the current foundation of my country's economic recovery is still unstable, and various stable growth measures should be continued in the next stage, especially to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of policies such as fiscal, currency, industry, and employment. Consumption, expanding investment, and support for valid demand for credit.

LPR deposit adjustment of more than five years

At present, global economic growth has slowed down, high inflation operations, geopolitical conflicts continue, and the external environment is becoming more complicated and severe. The foundation of domestic economic recovery needs to be stable. The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the Second quarter of 2022" released by the recently proposed that the next stage will increase the implementation of stable monetary policy, give full play to the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy instruments, take the initiative to respond, boost confidence, engage in confidence, do it Good cross -cyclical adjustment.

CITIC Securities (20.060, -0.11, -0.55%) Macro team believes that monetary policy will still maintain support for the real economy.Relatively abundant level.Zhang Yu, the assistant to the director and chief macro analyst of the Institute of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, believes that the probability of interest rate cuts in the future is already minimal. The policy that can be expected at the moment is that the reduction can reduce the cost of the debt end of the commercial bank and help the interest rate of physical loans.In addition, considering that the current mortgage interest rate of many places has been adjusted to the lowest value, LPR is still possible for LPR for more than 5 years.

Pang Ye, the chief economist and director of the Research Department of the Zhongliang Langlian Federation, also believes that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and ratings in the short term is lower, but LPR may still have asymmetric reduction.Since the current mortgage interest rate is still higher than the general loan interest rate, the decline of LPR more than 5 -year LPR is still smaller than the 1 -year LPR downgrade. It is expected that if the LPR quotation of more than 5 years will continue to be reduced, the mortgage interest rate is expected to sufferKeep a certain adjustment space.

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