Is the "blind box economy" outdated?

How many waves did Mart have opened the "blind box world" of play enthusiasts? Nowadays, young people on the social platform are crazy to turn the blind box, and the "tide of retreating" is strong.

Recently, "Tide Playing the First Stock" Bubble Mart has once again become the focus of the market because the stock price fluctuates. As of the closing of August 12, the bubble Mart's stock price was reported at HK $ 18.6/share, and the high point has fallen by more than 80%. Its latest market value has also shrunk from nearly HK $ 150 billion in the peak to nearly HK $ 26 billion.

Picture source: "Popmart Bubble Mart" official Weibo

"In view of the current economic situation and investors' estimates for their growth, the recent decline in Bao Mate's stock price is not entirely due to performance issues. The stock price requires a process of rational return."

Chen Shaofeng, deputy dean of the Institute of Culture and Industry of Peking University, said in an interview with Tianfu Cultural Innovation Cloud.

From the launch of the two years ago to the current market value of more than 100 billion yuan, is the bubble Mate being "abandoned" by investors and consumers? After the boom of development in recent years, has the "blind box economy" be the limelight?

The first share of Chao Play "encountered the stock price" Waterloo "

On July 15th, Bubble Mart released the results of the first half of 2022. It is expected that as of June 30, 2022, the Group's revenue growth rate fell to 30%, but the net profit fell by nearly 35%year -on -year. This is the first time since the launch of Bubble Mart, a decline in net profit.

The preview of this performance has become the "fuse" of the stock price of Bubble Mart in the past two weeks. Although Bubble Matt urgently launched hundreds of millions of Hong Kong dollars in stock repurchase plans to show the outside world's firm confidence in the future, it is still difficult for the stock price to decline.

In response to the decline in profit, the official explanation given by Bubble Mart is that the epidemic in the first half of the year has repeatedly impact on the first -tier cities, and the disadvantages of offline store shutdown and offline logistics are superimposed.

In fact, in the first half of this year, while facing the "rigid growth" of the cost of procurement costs and mold costs, the bubble Mate was directly affected by the fundamentals of the consumer market, just like other non -rigid consumer consumer goods. "The overall consumer market has insufficient power, especially the main force of young consumer groups to buy, which directly affects the performance of Bubble Mart's performance. This is an important factor." Chen Shaofeng said.

However, some analysts have pointed out that the "cold" market in Bubble Mart's capital market is not due to its unilateral pressure in the first half of the year. The capital market is really concerned about the growth and possibility of a company's main business. Behind the continuous decline of Mart's stock price, the capital market reflects the capital market's concerns about its growth.

From the annual report of Bubble Mart, it can be seen. Although the bubble Mate achieved annual revenue of 4.491 billion yuan in 2021, a year -on -year increase of 78.7%, compared with 2018 (225.49%) and 2019 (227.19%(227.19%) before listing ) The year -on -year growth rate, its efficiency of money has shown a significant decline.

Picture source: "Popmart Bubble Mart" official Weibo

Nowadays, after the "Cyclonus" in the Blind Box Market in recent years, the enthusiasm of the investment and consumption side seems to be gradually cooling.

Earlier, Goldman Sachs released a research report that the net profit forecast of Bubble Mart was reduced by 24%to 37%from 2022 to 2024 to reflect the low visibility of its income and profit fluctuations. The report pointed out that the company's poor performance was uncertainty of gross profit margin due to fierce competition and expansion of investment, and the profit margin fluctuated exceeded expectations. At the same time, CICC also lowered the target price and maintained the bubble Mart's "running industry" rating.

Analysts pointed out that the decline in the stock price and decline of Bubble Mart has both the weakness of the overall stock market and the possibility of foaming. "The preliminary market's expectations for Bubble Mart are too high, and the gap between the back and forth is too big."

Behind the Blind Box Industry Running

On a social platform, notes on "Bubble Mart's Retreat" have exceeded 10,000 articles; in the second -hand market, the price of MEGA, which was once fired to 15,000 yuan, has also been cut; on the Tmall platform, Bubble Mart The sales volume in June was 220,000 pieces, and the sales were 27 million yuan, a decrease of more than 30 % from the same period last year ...

All signs show that the leader of the bubble Mate, the "myth" who has created the "myth" sales market, is falling into some kind of "stall".

Why is the upsurge so fast? On the one hand, the price rising price and various quality problems that have exploded have made many new and old players choose "retreat". Since April last year, the unit price of a number of blind box products launched by Bubble Mart has continued to increase, causing consumers to dissatisfy.

At the same time, issues such as "spraying with flaws", "different colors of the same product", "homogeneous style of theme style" and "tyrannical clauses" have caused widespread discussion on major social platforms. "I have been" retreating '. Many new products from this year are not surprised. The most important thing for our consumers is design and quality. "Ray, a bubble Mate Blind Blood Box enthusiast, said to Tianfu Cultural Innovation Cloud.

Search "Bubble Mate Retreat" on a social platform. There are more than 10,000 notes.

On the other hand, with the gradual crowd of the tide, Mart's business model has been significantly impacted. For a long time, compared with the mainstream content IP with huge user stickiness and rich application scenarios, such as Batman, Doraemon, etc., the image IP that the main operation of Bubble Mart can really "go out" is also relatively single, it is difficult to be difficult Cultivate high -stick users and follow -up "tricks for the old", which is naturally affected by competitors. In recent years, more and more players with IP resources have entered the tide market. Since 2020, there are more than 500 new companies in the Mainland, which has further exacerbated market competition. "In the field of tide, once a certain model is found to be easy to copy, investors will swarm. In the process, there will be many followers and leaders, and the phenomenon of the industry will increase." Chen Shaofeng pointed out.

After sorting out, we found that these aggressive tide players are mainly divided into the following four categories: IP small stations, 52TOYS and other platform companies; looking for unicorn, Toycity and other tide players; Chaowa gathering stores and Chaowa, Blind Box Planets, Gets and other Chao Play Trading Platform.

In addition, after the blind box economy rushing, the country has introduced relevant regulations in many places, rectify the chaos in the industry, further regulates the boundaries of the industry, and compress the foam in the market. For example, Shanghai issued the "Guidelines for the Compliance of Shanghai Blind Box Operation Activity Activities", which deployed a blind box to operate the red line, and proposed that "the price of a single blind box generally does not exceed 200 yuan, the ban on selling blind boxes under the age of 8 years" is Suggest.

At the same time, the regulatory authorities also require the blind box operators to establish a guarantee mechanism to avoid excessive hype of the second -hand market by setting up the upper limit and number of the amount of the amount, and make clear stipulation in the aspects of cannot carry out hunger marketing or induce hype.

The high -end product MEGA treasure series that was once fired to 15,000 yuan

Picture source: "Popmart Bubble Mart" official Weibo

Can the strategy of going to the sea turn the tide?

When the "IP+Blind Box" play is no longer novel, when investors start to doubt their growth, how can the bubble Mate, a bubble Mate as the leader of the tide, to find a new growth curve?

This company that has been in the domestic tide market has been in the market for many years, and will target the field of pan -entertainment, trying to find the next "molly" through a diversified strategy.

"In fact, as a leading company in this field, compared with other players, Bubble Mart has greater development space and cooperation resources. Next, its business expansion will be affected by the overall economic situation to a certain extent, but In the long run, its development is good. "Chen Shaofeng said.

The reporter observed that last year, Mart has successively invested in companies such as cat galaxies, two points, solestage, Mumu Art Museum and other companies, extending the tentacles to exhibitions, animation, Hanfu and other fields.

Earlier this year, Bubble Mart also cooperated with Beijing Chaoyang Park to start cross -border construction theme parks. The project has entered the design stage of the plan, and the overall investment is expected to invest 27-300 million yuan. However, given the first profit of the Hong Kong Disneyland, which had a strong content IP before 7 consecutive years, the first profit was achieved. As a cross -border player, how to get a balance between the huge early investment and the current operating pressure is still a not. Small test.

While the field of cross -border pan -entertainment, Bubble Mart will open up an important anchor point for overseas markets as its "second curve".

Since the first overseas direct -operated store in September 2020, since its opening in Seoul, South Korea, Bubble Mate has deployed more than 20 offline stores overseas; at the same time, he has also participated in the global trend art event, such as the London MCM Anime Exhibition, the United States in the United States, the United States Designercon et al. Deepen its brand power in overseas markets.

Since the beginning of this year, Mart has opened a number of offline stores in London, New Zealand, the United States, South Korea, and Japan. The Los Angeles stores in the United States and the first stores in Australia and France are being prepared and are expected to officially open in the second half of the year. "2022 will be the" first year of the tide to play ". This year's overseas store expansion plan will be accelerated, and the income will remain more than doubled." Wandei, president of Bubble Matt International, said in an interview with the media.

Analysts of Caitong Securities Industry believe that with the improvement of the epidemic and the gradual improvement of the company's processing side, the profitability of Bubble Mart will gradually recover, and overseas business will be expected to bring increment.

To some extent, going out to sea is an inevitable trend of a tide -to -play company. In a more mature overseas market, companies can capture more opportunities, but from the current proportion of overseas sales contributions of less than 10%, Bubble Mate wants to rely on to go to the sea to go to the sea There is still a long way to go.

Reporter | Xie Tao

Edit | Wang Yuelong Tang Yuan Liang Liang Yi Qijiang

School pair | Duan Lian

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