The United States in July CPI over expected to fall at the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike or slowdown

The latest data show that the continuous high inflation of the United States seems to show signs of top cooling again.

On August 11, local time, the US Department of Labor announced data showing that the US PPI (producer price index) in July (producer price index) increased by 9.8%year -on -year, the previous value was 11.3%, and expected to be 10.4%. The previous value was 8.2%, and it was expected to be 7.6%.

The day before, the US Labor Statistics announced data showing that the US CPI in July increased by 8.5%year -on -year, a decline from the 9.1%increase of the previous month, which was lower than the market's general expected 8.7%. ; The same month is the same as the previous month, the new low since May 2020. After excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 5.9%year -on -year and 0.3%month -on -month. Compared with last month, a large decline appeared.

Some opinions believe that the period of data in July may mean that the most severe period of inflation in the United States has passed. Moody Zandi, the chief economist of Moody's analysis, said that the increase of 8.5%year -on -year inflation is still "uneasy and painful", but "moving towards the right direction." He predicts that this round of inflation in the United States has been in June this year.

Hu Jie, a professor at Shanghai High School of Finance and former Federal Reserve senior economist, also pointed out in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that the CPI in the United States in July meets the expectations of most people. Analysts generally predict that the last time the inflation data is released, that is, June, it should be the month of inflation. "In this sense, the results of July are consistent with everyone's expectations." Hu Jie said, "From the perspective of the actual decline, it transcends expectations."

However, Hu Jie believes that because the data is more ideal, it has given the Fed's greater policy space to a certain extent. From this perspective, inflation data may encourage the Federal Reserve to "pursue pursuit" and continue to maintain its radical monetary policy position in the short term.

He Ning, the chief analyst of Hua'an Securities, told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that from the current data, there is no obvious evidence of inflation substantially continued downward. Under the fiery labor market and high -level inflation, the Fed will still maintain the original faster tightening rhythm in the short term, and will not quickly slow down interest rates and even cut interest rates.

On August 10, local time, data released by the US Labor Statistics showed that the United States CPI rose 8.5%year -on -year in July, a decline from 9.1%of the previous month. Xinhua News Agency

The situation of inflation "high fever is difficult to retreat" is now turning?

The CPI data in July obviously brought good news to investors in the United States.

A Bank of America economists wrote in a report after the data was released. For the US economy and market, the CPI data in July was "relieved." Meghan Swiber, the interest rate strategist of the bank, also said: "We may have seen the peak of inflation."

From the perspective of major split data, the trend of slowing prices in the United States in July was mainly driven by the decline in energy prices. In July, the energy sub -items recorded 32.9%year -on -year, compared with the growth rate of 41.6%last month, the decline was significantly significantly. Among them, fuel items decreased by 7.7%month -on -month.

He Ning analyzed that the growth rate of energy inflation has decreased sharply from the previous month. On the one hand, the continuous high of gasoline prices led to a reduction in consumption related to the American people; on the other hand, the economic momentum of economic momentum caused by the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hike.

Regarding the trend of decline in energy prices, John Leer, chief economist of MorNing Consult, said that this will make consumers more optimistic than a month ago, because "in the eyes of consumers, the decline Stems.

Hu Jie pointed out that the inflation over expectations in July showed that the effect of the Federal Reserve's policy may begin to appear on the one hand. On the other hand, it is driven by the recovery effect of energy prices and food prices itself, indicating that the twist of the supply chain is in the process of gradually repairing. Under the comprehensive role of the two factors, the inflation occurred.

The point of view of the Office of UBS Wealth Management Investment (CIO) pointed out that the details of the CPI report show that inflation is slowing down. UBS analysis pointed out that although food prices rose 1.1%month-on-month and offset the influence of the decline in gasoline prices, about 30%of the project prices in CPI baskets have been stronger than those in the past few months, including cars and truck rental (- 9.5%) and air tickets (-7.8%). Since this month, the price of gasoline and air tickets has fallen further, indicating that the CPI may be flat again from the next month. In view of this, UBS believes that inflation seems to be biased towards soft landing scenes.

He Ning believes that although the level of inflation in the United States has fallen to a certain extent this month, it is mainly caused by great fluctuations in energy inflation; as the downside of energy and food prices weaken, the service inflation is relatively strong, the United States inflation is relatively strong, and the inflation of the United States is inflation. The downward road will still be rugged and difficult, and the overall inflation level will be hovering at a high level. Therefore, the "high fever difficult" situation in the United States may not have significantly improved in the short term. "If there are some political or economic black swan incidents, it will not even rule out the possibility of inflation and renewing the high." He Ning added.

Hu Jie also pointed out that even if inflation appears, 8.5%is still a very high level. This shows that the Fed needs to continue to work hard on the road to lowering inflation. The Federal Reserve policy shift may be early

After the inflation data was announced in July, the market continued to maintain a large increase in interest rate hikes in September in September.

Among the speculation of 50 basis points in September or 75 basis points, the market expected balance is currently inclined to the former. The Chicago Commodity Exchange Fedwatch shows that at the moment, the market is expected to continue to raise interest rates in September of 75 basis points in September of 37.5%, and not long ago, after the strong July non -agricultural data was released in July, this value once soared to 70 to 70 %. In contrast, the probability of 50 basis points in September increased significantly to 62.5%.

Does the cooling of inflation also mean that the Fed will really slow down the interest rate hike as the market expects? Some economists and analysts said that the idea of ​​judging the Fed will slow down because of the fall of inflation data to fall, and it may be too optimistic that the Fed will slow down its pace of interest rate hikes.

Matthew Luzzetti, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, reminded customers in a report to customers that the market should not turn too much on the Fed's policy. Luzzetti pointed out that whether it is an eagle or a partial Federal Reserve officials, they have stated that after the July interesting meeting, the market re -priced that the Fed will turn to the pigeon faction. With orbit and can return to its 2%target, the Fed has a lot of work to do.

UBS also pointed out that the Federal Reserve still relies on data; some Federal Reserve officials have also explicitly stated that they oppose early to turn the policy. Because the next monetary policy meeting was only held on September 21, UBS also reminded investors that investors should not respond to a single data.

At the same time, UBS believes that the current inflation is still much higher than the central bank's goal. Even if the core CPI is lower than expected, the Fed cannot consider suspending interest rate hikes. Therefore, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates at least 50 basis points in September and continue to tighten the monetary policy until the end of the year.

Hu Jie pointed to reporters that the ideal data this time will encourage the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in subsequent policies. Hu Jie explained that the Fed's policy space was mainly affected by the growth of GDP and unemployment rates. Judging from the current situation, on the one hand, the employment data just disclosed recently is quite strong; on the other hand, the growth of American GDP has indeed slowed down, and negative growth has occurred in two consecutive quarters, but the prospects are not completely so bad. , Still maintaining a healthy growth level. Therefore, the above two data are superimposed, leaving a lot of room for the Fed's anti -inflation policy.

Hu Jie believes that if September is selected between 50 basis points and 75 basis points in September, the Federal Reserve will probably choose 75 basis points to pursue the victory. "It is also the top priority of the Federal Reserve to suppress the inflation." Hu Jie said.

High Frequency Economics Chief Economist Rubeela Farooqi also pointed out in a report that the price is still "uneasy", coupled with strong employment and wage growth, these data give the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates sharply.

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