31 provinces in July CPI released: 8 -place price increases narrowed

A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) in July 2022. It was found that in July, the CPI of 22 provinces rose year -on -year than last month. Among them, the highest in Guangxi rose 3.1%, and Tibet rose 1.8%. 6 Enter the "3" era

8 -place increases narrowed

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2022, the national CPI rose 0.5%month -on -month, an increase of 2.7%year -on -year, and the year -on -year increase was flat, but it was lower than the 2.9%of the previous market expectations.

It was found that the CPIs in 31 provinces rose year -on -year in July, and the provinces with higher increases higher than or below the national level were 16 and 13, respectively, and 14 and 12 in June. In addition, it is worth noting that eight provinces including Beijing, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, Guangdong, Guangdong, Qinghai, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou increased below June.

Specifically, Guangxi, Sichuan, Shanxi, Jilin, Zhejiang, Gansu, Shanghai, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Ningxia and other 16 provinces have increased higher than the national level, of which Guangxi, Sichuan, Shanxi , Jilin, Zhejiang, Gansu, etc. have entered the "3" era; Liaoning and Chongqing's gains are the same as the national level; Jiangsu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Hainan, Hebei, Henan, Yunnan, Shandong, Guizhou, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Tibet The increase is lower than the national level, of which Tibet and Xinjiang remained in the "1 era".

In addition, from the perspective of increasing and decrease, Chongqing's maximum increase was 0.7 percentage points, and Beijing decreased by 0.4 percentage points.

According to the analysis of the BOC Macro Report, there are three main reasons for the year -on -year growth rate of CPIs in July: first, the year -on -year growth rate of core CPIs decreased from June, and the second is that the decline in international energy prices has driven the price of related products from the previous month. Food prices, including pork prices, rose year -on -year growth to increase CPI than market expectations.

Cheng Qiang, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Macroeconomic Economic, also pointed out that due to the sharp rise in pork and fresh vegetables, food prices raised 3.0%month -on -month, driving CPIs to rise by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. However, considering the low price effect of pig prices in 2021, the weight of this year in the CPI basket was significantly reduced (the weight of 1.3%this year was 1.3%), and the year -on -year increase of CPI's increase in the year -on -year increase, slightly lower than market expectations.

What is the trend of CPI in the future?

Judging from institutional forecasts, CPI may still rise year -on -year.

The research report of Guojin Macro Zhao Wei pointed out that the CPI or continued upward, at the end of the third quarter or reached about 3%, and fell slightly in the fourth quarter. In contrast, inflation in early 2023 is easy to exceed expectations. Under the restoration of the core driver or from offline activities, the "compensation" price increase of the service industry has driven the core CPI to rise. In neutral scenes, the CPI center in the first half of 2023 was 3%.

Cheng Qiang predicts that the CPI in the third quarter may break up to 3%, but due to the limited room for pig prices and a significant decline in the CPI basket, the overall inflation pressure is still controllable.

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing and others predict that the CPI in August will remain near the current level. In the second half of the year, pork prices will increase to a certain extent to a certain extent, but it will not change the overall moderate and controllable situation of the price situation. Inflation will still be the biggest difference between domestic and overseas economic fundamentals.

According to the analysis of the China -Thailand Macro Chenxing team, from the perspective of high -frequency data, since August, the price of pork has fallen at a high level, and the price of fresh vegetables has decreased from rising to decline. Narrowing, it is expected that the CPI will decline in August, and the year -on -year growth rate may maintain a high level.

On August 10, the Central Bank issued the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the Second quarter of 2022". The report pointed out that the inflation trend in my country was generally mild and stable in the past period. Convergence and fall, maintaining the stability of the domestic price situation in the context of rare high inflation worldwide. It is expected that the price increase will still run in a reasonable range this year, and it is expected to achieve the expected target of about 3%of the annual CPI increase of about 3%.

- END -