Financial data in July is not as good as expected: this incident is very important

Fengkou Finance reporter Liu Xiao

After a record high in June, the growth of new RMB loans and social financing in July was significantly lower than market expectations.

On August 12, the People's Bank of China released the financial statistics report in July 2022. Data show that in July, RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan, an increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year. The increase in social financing in July was 756.1 billion yuan, 319.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. However, at the end of July, the balance of the broad currency (M2) was 2.5781 trillion yuan, an increase of 12%year -on -year, and it hit a new year -on -year growth rate of this year, which also means that M2 has maintained a double -digit growth rate for 4 consecutive months.

Experts point out that the data shows that the current foundation of my country's economic recovery is still unstable. The next stage should continue to implement various steady growth measures, especially to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of policies such as fiscal, currency, industry, and employment. , Promote consumption, expand investment, and support valid demand for credit.

The scale of credit and social integration is not as good as market expectations

Data show that in July, RMB loans increased by 697 billion yuan, an increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year. After two consecutive months, the loan increased significantly.

"Structurally, the decline of residents Zhongchang Loan has dragged down on credit." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told Fengkou Finance that in July, residents' medium- and long -term loans increased by 148.6 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 248.8 billion yuan year -on -year, indicating real estate The market is still in the process of bottoming out. Wen Bin believes that in July, the "suspension of loans" incidents in individual real estate caused insufficient confidence in residents 'purchase of houses. Real estate sales have weakened again. Newly added mortgage loans is still poor, and residents' medium -term loans have fallen. Data show that the sales of the top 100 real estate in July was -40%year-on-year, which expanded from June. At the same time, under the impact of factors such as high -risk demands, savings rates at high level, housing loan and commercial loan interest rates, asset yields and liability cost gaps, etc. Increased. Without sufficient mortgage incremental increase, reduction of stock, and replacement of operating loans, the stability of the real estate chain financing has weakened, and the foundation of wide credit is still not solid.

Wen Bin said that short -term loans in residents in July decreased by 26.9 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 35.4 billion yuan. Under the policy effects of interest rates and consumption promotion, short -term loans of residents such as credit cards, consumer loans, etc. are still weak, and reflect that the effective demand for vitality in the economy and the repeated valid demand under the epidemic situation has not been fully repaired.

Data show that in July, social finances increased by 756.1 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 319.1 billion yuan year -on -year; at the end of the month, the social integration volume of 3.3.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7%year -on -year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Wen Bin believes that the large -scale decline of social financing in July is due to insufficient demand and obvious retreat of government debt financing. The two major support factors of RMB loans and government bonds have a large scale. The year -on -year decrease in social finances was significantly reduced from foreign currency loans under the social integration item. At the same time, the performance of corporate bonds was poor and unspecified not discounted bills have also declined.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told Fengkou Finance that the scale of credit and social integration fell sharply in July, and the year -on -year growth rate also declined. The overall market expectations were not as expected. The main reason was that the phenomenon There must be a certain overdraft effect; the second is that the current macroeconomic restoration momentum is mild, and the problem of weak loan demand needs to be further resolved; the third is that the property market in July will turn cold again, which will have a certain impact on residents and enterprises for medium and long -term loans. Policy financial instruments, focusing on supporting infrastructure, have not yet fully reflected the stimulating effect on enterprises for medium and long -term loans. The growth rate of M2 at the end of July accelerated compared with the end of last month, mainly due to the continued large scale of fiscal tax refund, not completely representing the acceleration of wide credit.

Wang Qing believes that the growth rate of M1 (narrow currency) at the end of July is still significantly lower than the M2 growth rate, and it continues to be at a significant low level. The main reason is that the current property market is at a low operation process, the sales of commercial housing are not cheerled, and the short -term deposits of the enterprise are greatly affected; In addition, the lower M1 growth rate also means that the current active activity of the real economy is still insufficient. In the later period, the economic restoration to normal growth still has a long way to go.

However, Wang Yunjin, a senior researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, believes that although new credit and social integration incremental growth is not as good as market expectations, the growth rate of the two is not large. Credit growth in July formed a certain interference. He said that eliminating the impact of seasonal factors, the slowdown in credit growth in July was not large, but it also reflected that the domestic demand of residents' consumption and enterprise investment is still weak.

On June 10, consumers purchased vegetables in a supermarket in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Xinhua News Agency

Expanding demand is the key to stable growth

At present, global economic growth has slowed down, high inflation operations, geopolitical conflicts continue, and the external environment is becoming more complicated and severe. The foundation of domestic economic recovery needs to be stable, and insufficient demand is one of the main contradictions facing the current economy.

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation, and deploy the economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting emphasized that macro policies should actively actively act in expanding demand. The fiscal monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social demand. The Executive Meeting of the State Council held on July 29 deployed further expansion of demand measures to promote effective investment and increase consumption.

Wen Bin believes that the data shows that in the next stage, the fiscal and monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs, comprehensively implement policies and measures, promote effective investment and increase consumption; especially to strengthen the coordination of policies such as fiscal, currency, industry, employment and other policies Cooperate, stabilize external demand, expand domestic demand, promote consumption, expand investment, support the recovery of valid demand for credit, in order to consolidate the trend of economic recovery to a good trend, and strive to achieve the best results. Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Institute of Institute of Investment and the President of the Research Institute, and the Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, said in an interview with the Thautong Finance that with the transformation and upgrading of my country's economic structure, the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has shown significantly changes in economic growth. Essence In the "three driving carriages" that driven the economy, exports mainly correspond to external needs, and investment and consumption mainly correspond to domestic demand. Internal and external need to coordinate and distribute and jointly promote economic growth. From the perspective of the structure and development of the Chinese economy, in the case of great impact on foreign demand and being easily affected by uncertain factors, domestic demand is not only the basic disk of total demand, but also the growth of growth in total demand. Essence From the perspective of international experience, at a certain stage of any large economy, it is based on domestic needs and domestic markets. External demand and international markets are just extensions and expansion of domestic and domestic demand. Therefore, in the current situation of intricate international situations and significantly reduced exterior dependence, expanding domestic demand has become the key to steady growth.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Zhongliang Federation Greater China, told Fengkou Finance that domestic demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakness still exist, and the focus is that the effective demand is still insufficient. The policy in the second half of the year will focus on To expand domestic demand grew greater, and more effectively enhance the endogenous motivation of market entities, the focus is not that the short -term policy is not the first time to ensure that the existing policy is advanced and the incremental policy is effective. In the case of lack of effective demand, weak domestic demand growth, and variables in foreign demand, we must focus on expanding infrastructure investment, stable investment, stable demand, and stable growth through fiscal policy.

On April 22, workers were conducting production operations at the FAW Group Red Flag Prosperous Factory. Xinhua News Agency

Increase credit support for the real economy

The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the Second quarter of 2022" released by the People's Bank of China recently pointed out that the use of various monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable liquidity and abundant liquidity, maintain a reasonable growth in monetary supply and social financing scale. Continue to alleviate the three major constraints of the liquidity, capital and interest rates of bank credit supply, and guide financial institutions to increase credit support for the real economy in accordance with the principles of marketization and prudent operations.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that looking forward to the second half of the year, the central bank actively promotes the demand for "stable credit", but it may pay more attention to the growth momentum of the enterprise's medium- and long -term loans. While meeting the needs of infrastructure loans, it further exerts the prying role of structural tools and increases the "support" of the real estate field.

Wang Qing said that in order to effectively stimulate the demand for loans of the real economy and consolidate the momentum of economic restoration, the policy surface may focus on the following aspects: the first is to promote the effective transmission of wide currencies towards wide credit, and maintain the policy interest rate (MLF interest rate) to maintain In the context of stable, guide the LPR quotation to reduce the price of corporate and residents; secondly, urge policy development banks to implement the number of newly increased credit and 300 billion yuan special financial instruments as soon as possible to give full play to the replenishment effect, support infrastructure investment in infrastructure investment Speed ​​up; the third is to fully explore the potential of various structural monetary policy tools, accelerate relevant loans, and promote the growth of total credit; fourth, the regulatory level will increase the assessment of banks and guide financial institutions to increase loans to the real economy.

Pang Ye believes that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and ratings in the short term is lower, but LPR may still have asymmetric lowers. Since the current mortgage interest rate is still higher than the general loan interest rate, the decline of LPR more than 5 -year LPR is still smaller than the 1 -year LPR downgrade. It is expected that if the LPR quotation of more than 5 years will continue to be reduced, the mortgage interest rate is expected to suffer Keep a certain adjustment space.

Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst of the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, told Fengkou Finance that from the perspective of the future trend, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is good as a whole, the economic activities are accelerated, and the growth of financing demand is expected to drive. It shows that the real estate market will recover from financing. In addition, the 800 billion yuan credit quota and the newly established 300 billion yuan financial instruments will also strongly support infrastructure project financing. The implementation of key projects will effectively drive upstream and downstream credit demand growth.

In the past ten years, consumption has contributed the greatest contribution to my country's economic growth and is the key to steady growth. Lian Ping said that how to continue to expand and promote consumption in the end of the epidemic has become the biggest difficulty in expanding domestic demand this year. In the short term, in the context of repeated and serious epidemic in the current epidemic, it is necessary to coordinate from four aspects: First, to ensure and promote employment and encourage flexible employment. Active efforts can be actively exerted at the end of the fiscal policy expenditure to give play to the role of the main body of the market to protect the employment; the second is to vigorously develop the development of new models and new formats and cultivate new consumption. From the aspects of enhanced policy support and encouragement innovation, and increase support, the orderly and healthy development of the new consumer market is promoted; the third is to effectively promote car consumption. Continue to implement policies to promote automobile consumption, including the reduction of vehicle purchase tax halves, and consider extended preferential time and increase preferential efforts; fourth, increase the direct support for residents. The scope of consumer vouchers can be further expanded. It is recommended to distribute multiple batches and normalization according to the personalized needs and income elasticity of different groups, and consider introducing certain consumption tax refund measures. Lian Ping believes that from the middle and long term, the ideas of promoting consumption growth should be expanded, multi -pronged, targeted policies, comprehensive measures, and effectively promoted the pace of consumption. Firm and accelerate the pace of new urbanization construction, and expand the base and increase of consumer demand growth. Strengthen the reform of the rural land system, improve the consumption capacity of farmers and promote urban consumption growth. Cultivating effective investment with consumption, some promotes consumption in a target, and make up for the shortcomings of consumption. Reform related tax systems and increase consumer willingness to consume high net worth groups. More pragmatic implementation encouraging fertility policies and increasing support for employment and life of disabled groups, and promoting new consumption growth points.

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