What is the solution of financial data in July to reappear down residents and companies do not want to loan?

Economic Observation Network reporter Hu Yanming on the afternoon of August 12, the People's Bank of China announced the financial data in July. Social financing increased by 756.1 billion yuan in July; new RMB loans were added in July 679 billion yuan.

These two data are also far lower than market expectations. Earlier, the market expected social integration to increase 1300 billion yuan, and the expected value of new RMB loans was 1100 billion yuan.

Compared with last month, the new social financing in June has achieved more than 5 trillion "days" data, reaching 5.17 trillion, credit data has improved significantly, and new RMB loans have been added. The increasing capacity and new loans are all lows in the year.

Not only does the total performance not perform well, but the sub -items that form social financing also show the problem of poor structural structure. The demand for loans of residents and enterprises is not high. Analysts believe that the current financing and credit facing problems such as "insufficient effective demand" and "weak effective demand".

However, it does not rule out the overdraft effect caused by the market formed in June. "Some people say that they are worse than expected. In fact, the main reason is that the June data overdraft is more overdraft, so consistent expectations will be adjusted and eliminated from July data. But if two months (June and July) are calculated, in fact, it is okay. "Pang Ye, chief economist and director of the research department of Zhongliang Federation Greater China, told reporters.

So, will the data in August get better? Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing predicts that under economic restoration and policy force, financial data in August will recover again, but how to effectively alleviate insufficient loan demand will continue to become an important point for the macro policy in the second half of the year.

The total number of social finances has fallen sharply at a 6 -year low

In July, new social financing was 756.1 billion, a significant increase of about 4.42 trillion yuan from last month. Compared with July last year, it also increased by 319.1 billion. 100 million yuan, the original social merit calm).

The decrease in new social integration in July also dragged down social fusion. At the end of July, the year -on -year growth rate of social integration fell 0.1 percentage points to 10.7%from the end of the last month.

Pang Ye believes that the data of social integration is mainly due to the lack of effective demand for corporate and residential departments. In addition to the residential repayment of the mortgage in advance, from the perspective of the banker's questionnaire, the loan demand index of large, medium and small enterprises in the second quarter shows a clear downward trend, indicating that the demand for corporate loan at this stage is still relatively weak.

Wang Qing believes that the total amount of new social financing in July was a significant decline in the month -on -month. It was mainly affected by the seasonal factors and the basis of special bonds at the end of June. twists and turns.

Increased social financing scale refers to the amount of funds obtained from the real economy from the financial system within a certain period of time. These include loans (residents, enterprises, etc.), corporate bond issuance, government bond issuance, stock financing, non -standard financing, etc.

From the analysis of the various data of social financing, Yang Chang, the person in charge and chief analyst of the policy group of the China -Thailand Securities Research Institute, believes that the following characteristics of financial data in July are relatively obvious: first, the growth rate of social integration stocks has fallen, but Local government special debt is still supported, accompanied by intensive issuance in the early stage, the formation of physical workload is worth waiting; second, the residents' medium- and long -term loans have increased less year -on -year in a row and increased less than the month, indicating that the mortgage demand is still weak; Third, the enterprise's medium and long -term loans are still weak, and the enthusiasm of leverage is still yet to be repaired; fourth, the growth rate of social finance and M2 has expanded compared with the previous month, and the gap between supply and demand has increased.

From the perspective of each sub -item, in addition to the increase in RMB loans to the real economy year -on -year, in July, the performance of corporate bond financing, out -of -table bill financing and foreign currency loans were also poor.

In the past few months, the government's special debt has contributed to new social integration. However, the new special bonds have been issued in the first half of the year. In July, government bond financing increased significantly by 1.22 trillion yuan in June. Wang Qing said that due to the year -on -year volume of net financing financing, government bond financing still increased by 217.8 billion year -on -year year -on -year more than 217.8 billion yuan. Essence

The phenomenon of the phenomenon of credit demand is still existing

In July, RMB loans were added 679 billion yuan, an increase of 2.13 trillion yuan from last month, and 404.2 billion less compared to July last year. The monthly data dragging the loan balance, the growth rate of the loan balance at the end of July fell 0.2 percentage points to 11.0%from the end of the last month, failed to continue the total number of recovery since May.

RMB loans mainly include loans of enterprises (affairs) and residential loans (including non -bank financial institutions loans, but they are relatively small).

Although the current policy level is still actively promoting wide credit, the regulatory initiative recently initiated "increasing credit support for enterprises", but in July, corporate loans and residential loans have performed weakly.

Wang Qing believes that this is related to the strong credit volume of the bank at the end of last month and has a certain overdraft effect on the formation of a certain overdraft in July, but the main reason is that the current demand for the real economy financing is sluggish -the second quarter questionnaire released by the central bank on June 29th The survey results show that the loan demand index decreased by 15.7 percentage points from the previous month, a decline of the highest historical record in 2008.

Enterprise (affairs) loans increased by 287.7 billion yuan, of which short -term loans decreased by 354.6 billion yuan, medium and long -term loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 313.6 billion yuan.

Compared with June, enterprise short loans and enterprises have rarely increased by more than 100 trillion in medium and long -term loans; compared with the same period last year, they increased by 96.9 billion and 147.8 billion.

Compared with corporate loans, the amount of bill financing has re -rushed again, which is significantly recovered from the same period last month and last year. In July, bill financing increased by 313.6 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 136.5 billion yuan, becoming the second largest supporting factor in new credit in July, accounting for 46%of the new loan proportion of the month, reflecting that the current corporate financing demand is still insufficient. In terms of residential loans, the scale of residents' short -term and medium- and long -term loans in July has shrunk. In July, residential loans increased by 121.7 billion yuan, of which short -term loans decreased by 26.9 billion yuan, and medium- and long -term loans increased by 148.6 billion yuan.

Residents 'medium -to -long loans are mainly composed of mortgages, with a new increase of 148.6 billion yuan, an increase of 268.1 billion compared with June, and less than 248.8 billion compared with last July; short -term loans of residents generally include residents' consumer loans, operating loans, car loan loans For the composition, the residents' short loans increased by 455.1 billion in July from June, which was 35.4 billion yuan from June.

How to boost effective needs?

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that from financial data, it can be seen that the current foundation of my country's economic recovery is still unstable. The next stage should continue to implement various steady growth measures, especially to strengthen fiscal, currency, industry, and The coordination and cooperation of employment policies, stable external demand, expand domestic demand, promote consumption, expand investment, and support the recovery of valid demand for credit.

In July, financial data reproduced downward fluctuations, and the problem of insufficient loan demand was more prominent. Wang Qing believed that behind it was that the current economic restoration progress was slow, the property market fell again, and the urban investment platform continued to face high -pressure supervision.

Wang Qing's suggestion is that in the next step, in order to effectively stimulate the demand for loan in the real economy and consolidate the momentum of economic restoration, the policy may focus on the following aspects: the first is to promote the effective transmission of wide currencies towards wide credit. In the context of maintaining a stable, guide LPR quotation to reduce the price of corporate and residents; secondly, urge policy development banks to implement new 800 billion yuan credit scale and 300 billion yuan special financial instruments as soon as possible to give full play to the replenishment effect. Support infrastructure investment to speed up; third, fully tap the potential of various structural monetary policy tools, accelerate relevant loans, and promote the growth of total credit; fourth, the regulatory level will increase the assessment of banks, guide financial institutions to increase loans to the real economy loan Put it.

The financial data in April also performed downturn, but in the following May and June, they continued to warm up. Wang Qing predicts that under the effect of economic restoration and policy efforts, financial data will be recovered again in August (which will also comply with the law of financial data "together" in the next month, but how to effectively alleviate the lack of loan demand will continue to become become the problem of insufficient loan demand. An important point for the macro policy in the second half of the year.

- END -