Global Financial connection ｜ Special dialogue: International oil prices have created more than a week of new high OPEC and IEA demand prediction and differentiation

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shi Shi Shi Shi Shanghai report

The three major institutions released a monthly oil report

On August 11, the OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the US Energy Information Agency all issued a monthly report of the oil market. Since April this year, OPEC has lowered the expectations of global oil demand for the year for the third time. The prediction is raised from the previous 3.36 million barrels/day to 3.1 million barrels per day. The global oil demand growth forecast in 2023 remains unchanged at 2.7 million barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil market will enter the excess supply in this quarter. Both the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Agency have raised demand expectations, and raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2022 to 2.1 million barrels/day.

Does the contradiction between supply and demand in the crude oil market have been relieved? What is the trend of oil prices in the second half of the year? Today, we are very happy to invite Wang Yongzhong, director and researcher of the International Small Commodity Research Office of the World Economic and Political Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, to talk about international oil prices.

Giver natural gas prices or alternative effects

"Global Finance and Economics": OPEC and the International Energy Agency have different prospects for the demand for oil. Which judgment do you prefer, why?

Wang Yongzhong: From the point of view of tendency, I tend to IEA (forecast). On the one hand, the overall prediction of IEA is relatively pessimistic. On the other hand, in the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, natural gas has always been restricted, especially pipeline gas. Europe has greatly reduced the import of pipeline gas in Russia, and pipeline gas cannot be converted into liquefied gas, so the supply of global natural gas is limited. Under such circumstances, if the price of natural gas is high, it may cause a "alternative effect" and lead to an increase in oil demand.

Demand prospects are uncertainty

Lin Boqiang: I personally tend to IEA (forecast) because it is relatively fair, and OPEC's interests are more obvious.

The prediction of the International Energy Agency is often inaccurate because there are many uncertainty. It may rise today, maybe it will fall tomorrow; there are many problems in Russia and Ukraine's conflict, demand, and market. I often say that there are currently mutual power in the oil market: supply, demand and speculation. Speculation is the use of information and problems that occur between supply and demand. Therefore, the predictions are not accurate, and they are not allowed.

OPEC's interests are very clear. OPEC must not want to increase too much capacity. In order to suppress production capacity, it can only emphasize that the demand is rare. Otherwise, if the production is excessive, oil prices will plummet. So between the two, I personally prefer the International Energy Agency.

Overnight international oil prices rose by more than 2%

After the oil price continued to fall in early August, a sharp rebound occurred yesterday. As of the closing on the 11th, WTI rose 2.62%in September, and Brent crude oil futures rose 2.26%in October.

The probability of oil prices appears shock market

"Global Financial connection": Last week, the price of crude oil fell to the level before the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict. Does this mean that the oil price enters the downward track as a whole?

Wang Yongzhong: Last week, crude oil prices did have a sharp decline, which may be reduced by about 20%. The reason is on the one hand, mainly due to high inflation in Europe and the United States, and the Federal Reserve raises a sharp interest rate. There may be some tightening monetary policies in the future. This will have a large negative impact on the demand for global crude oil, which is the most important factor.

But oil prices may not enter the downward, and I personally understand that it is more likely to be a shocking market.

Teacher Lin just talked about some speculative factors. The decline in the decline of the continuous tightening monetary policy and economic growth may have a large negative effect on the speculative emotions, so there may be some over -transfer.

In addition, the West has sanctions on Russia (initiated) energy. At present, it is difficult for other countries to replace Russia's oil and gas resources in the short term, so there is still a problem with the supply of the entire market. In addition, environmental goals such as "double carbon" have limited oil and gas investment, the willingness to invest is relatively low, and the growth of production capacity is relatively slow. In this case, oil prices may be a shock market.

High oil prices or lasting for a long time

"Global Financial connection": What do you think of the rebound of oil prices today? Can this trend continue?

Lin Boqiang: This is actually very difficult to say. But there are a few points. First, the current price of natural gas is very high, and the price of coal is very high. Don't expect oil prices to fall a lot. This is certain. I dare not say how much oil prices can rise, but a lot of falling is impossible. Of course, it is hard to say if the economic depression appears again. But I think that oil prices higher than expected should be a high probability event. Moreover, the current high prices may continue to be relatively long.

In my opinion, the final (result) of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Russia and EU oil and gas (market) are more likely to be disconnected. Once this situation occurs, the oil and gas market will switch. It means that the European Union will find new partners, and Russia will also find new partners. The infrastructure of new buyers or sellers is not ready. The ready -made infrastructure is the Pipeline of the European Union to Russia and the Pipeline of Russia to the EU. The ready -made facilities can only be re -made. But the construction of new facilities takes a long time. Therefore, the switching of this market itself will maintain oil prices, gas prices, and even coal prices in a relatively high position for a long time. How long is the specific maintenance, and many other factors may be disturbed by many other factors in the future.

From another perspective, I think this round of oil prices and gas prices are so high, and because I did not see a lot of investment in last year, this is contrary to the basic operating laws of commodities. Why is the commodity periodic? Because when the price is good, everyone invests inside and makes the production capacity greater; then when the demand is not good, they will slowly digest the capacity. But when the oil price and gas price are very high, it is difficult for us to see more investment. And if there is no large -scale investment, the balance between supply and demand will be relatively tight. Therefore, in this sense, fossil energy prices will also maintain a long -term rise. Petroleum production growth lacks elasticity

"Global Finance and Economics": Has the current contradiction between supply and demand of the oil market have been greatly alleviated? The impact of the situation of Russia and Ukraine on oil prices?

Wang Yongzhong: I agree with Teacher Lin's analysis. At present, the global economic growth has declined in recent times, and inflation has risen. Generally speaking, the decline in economic growth needs to adopt an expansion monetary policy to stimulate the economy, but now the price is too high, and a tightening monetary policy must be adopted, which may lead to the continued decline in the economy. Therefore, in this case, because the demand surface factors are very not optimistic, the growth rate of crude oil demand will decline. This is a factor.

Judging from the status of Russia in the entire energy market, it is the largest exporter of oil and natural gas, and it is also a very important coal exporter. The current global market, because coal production capacity is very rich and oil is a global market, the adjustment of the two is relatively simple. As Mr. Lin mentioned just now, (natural gas) needs to be built in infrastructure, so there is no way to adjust in the short term. However, in terms of oil, only Western countries sanction Russian oil, there are no other countries, so China, India and other countries can increase demand for Russia's oil.

On the other hand, Western countries are forced to relax energy sanctions on Russia due to energy supply safety. Therefore, the impact of European sanctions on Russia's energy sanctions is weaker than expected, especially in terms of oil and coal. In winter, natural gas may be the main factor. It can be used as an indicator to see its impact on the global energy market.

In addition, due to the factors of carbon Dafeng, the investment willingness of oil production is not high, and the output growth is lacking elasticity.

Finally, from the perspective of geopolitical factors, another important factor is that if the negotiations of the United States and Iran have accelerated, Iran's crude oil and natural gas have entered the international market. This is a large negative factor for crude oil prices, making the global crude oil market supply There is a great relief, which can relieve the tension of crude oil.

The main reason is that the demand side is suppressing oil prices

"Global Financial connection": Do you think the main logic of the current crude oil market is on the demand side or the supply side?

Lin Boqiang: At present, the main demand is suppressing oil prices. Because everyone feels that the Fed will raise interest rates again, and interest rate hikes will hit the stock market and encourage demand. Therefore, the current demand side is still suppressed.

In addition, I think that the influence of Russia and Ukraine has just begun. At present, even if it is disconnected (crude oil market), it is not broken. When it really starts to break, the impact will be greater. I think the probability will be broken, and the reason why it is not broken is because the EU needs time. All the preparations for the EU are now: the development of clean energy, starting nuclear power, and restoring coal power are preparing for disconnecting (crude oil market) with Russia. Therefore, I think the impact of the Russian and Ukraine conflict is still fermenting.

As Teacher Wang said just now, Iran is indeed a relatively major influencing factor. If Iran can enter the crude oil market, it can indeed make up for a larger gap than at least part of the gap, which will greatly help alleviate the tension of global oil supply and demand. But Iran's problem, the United States now wants (solve), we also want to (solve), but in reality, we still can't solve it, and we need to wait. I think (solve) this problem is not easy.

Therefore, the current low oil prices are suppressed due to speculative and relatively negative needs. Once inflation is relieved, I personally think that oil prices will go up again.

Oil and gas investment may increase

"Global Finance and Economics": How to look at the trend of oil prices in the second half of the year? What kind of short and short factors do you need to pay attention to?

Wang Yongzhong: Generally speaking, oil prices can be used in terms of supply, demand, currency and geopolitical factors. The demand looks at the global economy, especially the current economic operation, such as inflation. U.S. inflation is now cooling. On the other hand, from the perspective of monetary policy. The Fed's tightening monetary policy will continue. Under the tightening monetary policy, the US dollar is relatively strong, and it has also suppressed oil prices. From the perspective of supply, there are also geopolitical factors. Europe has greatly reduced energy imports to Russia. Whether Iran can enter this market is a more important factor for supply. There are also carbon neutral factors. In the case of higher oil and gas prices, oil and gas investment should increase, and US crude investment will increase.

It is expected that oil prices will not fall a lot, but it may increase a lot

Lin Boqiang: Teacher Wang has been analyzed very well just now. In the second half of the year, due to the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike, the entire crude oil market will have relatively weak demand expectations, which will suppress oil prices, but oil prices will not fall sharply. If the inflation in the United States is relieved, oil prices will rise a lot. It will not fall a lot, and it may increase a lot. This sentence basically describes the price trend in the second half of the year.

(The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The opinions of the guests on this show only represent their own opinions.) Planning: Yu Xiaona

Produced: Shi Shi

Editor -in -chief: Du Hongyu and Jia Zhao Yue Li Yinong

Production: Yuan Sijie, Li Qun

Reporter: Li Yinong

Trainer: Hao Jiaqi Zhang Yuxiao

Shooting: Hao Jiaqi

New media overall planning: Ding Qingyun Zeng Tingfang Lai Xixun

Overseas operation producer: Huang Yanshu

Overseas Operation Editor: Zhang Ran Tang Shuangyan Wu Wanjie

Overseas Business Cooperation: Huang Zihao

Produced: Southern Finance All Media Group

- END -