Prospective of the financial incident next week: In July, economic data will be announced to pay attention

Next week, there are many things that need to be paid in the capital market. Macroeconomic data such as industry, consumption, and investment in July will be announced. The 2022 Global Yuan Universe Conference, the 10th China Electronic Information Expo, and the 2022 World Robot Conference will be concentrated. The Fed FOMC will announce the Minutes of the July Monetary Policy Conference. Next Tuesday, the central bank's open market will have 600 billion yuan MLF expiration, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the MLF will shrink the sequel. In addition, 10 new shares will be issued next week, and one will be launched.

The growth rate of industrial added value may still improve

On August 15, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce economic data such as industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and investment in fixed assets in July. The industry believes that although the PMI recovery interval in July, the growth rate of industrial added value may improve. The epidemic distributes offline activities, but does not change the general trend of consumption repair. Affected by the suspension of loan storms, real estate sales, investment or disturbance.

Although the production scores of the manufacturing PMI in July fell 3ppt to 49.8%, the shrinking interval was repeated, but CICC analysis believes that the year -on -year growth rate of industrial added value may still improve from June. It is expected that July is expected to be in July. It is expected that July is expected Industrial added value increased by 4.5%year -on -year (3.9%in June).

In terms of consumption, CICC believes that the epidemic departs offline activities, but does not change the general trend of consumption repair. It is expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods in July will increase by about 6%year -on -year. (4.3%) Continue to rise.

In terms of investment, CICC is expected to have accumulated asset investment from January to July or 6.0%(6.1%from June-June). It believes that the early stage of high exports on the lag of manufacturing investment is still there, but exports, profits, and capacity utilization rates have declined compared with last year. -In July manufacturing investment increased by 9.9%year-on-year (10.4%from June-June). Affected by the suspension of loan storms, real estate sales, investment or disturbance. In July, real estate development investment rebounded slightly from -9%to -5%, and infrastructure investment was still above 10%.

The Global Yuan Universe and other conferences will be held

The 2022 Global Yuan Universe will be held in online+offline in Shanghai and overseas cities in Shanghai and overseas in Shanghai and overseas. The conference will promote the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy, show the advantages and core forces of the Chinese Yuan universe, and drive the scale of Shanghai's software and information service industry and electronic information manufacturing industry to jump to a new level and compete for the new track of the universe industry.

The Tenth China Electronic Information Expo (CITE2022) with the theme of "Entrusted Ten Years" will be held at the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center (Futian) from August 16th to 18th. This expo will attract more than 1,400 companies to participate, including many domestic and foreign electronic information companies, such as the Great Wall of China, Kirin Software, Feiteng Information, Jinshan Office and other companies.

The 2022 World Robotic Conference will open in the Beijing Yinkin International Convention and Exhibition Center from August 18th to 21st. The theme of this conference is based on the theme of "creating sharing and sharing, sharing, business and win -win", and planning a wealth of discussions on cutting -edge issues of advanced manufacturing, cutting -edge technology, artificial intelligence, and international cooperation.

The Fed FOMC will announce the minutes of the meeting

On August 18, the Fed FOMC will announce the minutes of the July Monetary Policy Conference. In 2024, the FOMC Ticketing Committee and San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly said that the cooling data of inflation data in July may mean that the Federal Reserve has lowered the rate hike to 50 basis points at the September meeting. However, the struggle against the rapid rise of prices is far from over.

According to CME "Fed's Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points from September is 61.5%, and the probability of 75 basis points in interest rate hikes is 38.5%; The probability of 100 basis points of interest is 54.5%, and the probability of accumulating a total of 125 basis points is 26.8%.

Follow the MLF operation volume next week

Wind data shows that the central bank's open market will have a reverse repurchase of 10 billion yuan next week, of which 2 billion yuan will be expired from Monday to Friday. In addition, 600 billion yuan will be expired next Tuesday (August 16). In the open market this week, the central bank continues the previous scale of reflection reverse repurchase operations to achieve zero investment and zero recovery.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that in the context of market capital interest rates significantly lower than the corresponding policy interest rate, the possibility of MLF shrinkage sequel will increase. In August, the MLF expired was 600 billion yuan, which is different from 100 billion yuan in July. It has the conditions for shrinking sequels. However, the wide credit needs to be further exerted, and the possibility of continuation of MLF such as MLF in August cannot be completely ruled out.

10 new shares will be issued next week

Wind data statistics show that there will be 10 new shares issued next week (August 15th to August 19th), including 5 of the GEM. On August 15th, Conglin Technology and Joint Chemistry were issued; on August 16th, Xuantai Pharmaceutical and Jinlu Electronics was issued; Hengshuo shares were issued on the 18th; on August 19th, Microelectronics and Jianke shares were issued on August 19.

The total number of these 10 new shares issued a total of about 371 million shares, and the total amount of funds raised is 9.776 billion yuan.In addition, one new shares will be launched next week, and Zhiwei Smart will be listed on August 15.Reporter Chen Hui

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