In the second quarter of the United Kingdom, GDP shrank 0.1%month -on -month, and the risk of economic recession was imminent?

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter He Liuying reported on August 12, local time, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom showed that the British GDP fell by 0.1%in the second quarter, which was the first time since the epidemic blockade in early 2021, but the atrophy is less than market expectations. 0.2%.

Among them, the production and construction industry output in the second quarter of Britain increased, but the service industry fell by 0.4%. The Statistics Bureau pointed out that the active contribution of the service industry mainly comes from service activities such as accommodation and catering. The negative contribution mainly comes from the influence of human health and social work activities, as well as the downturn of wholesale and retail trade.

In terms of year -on -year, the British GDP increased by 2.9%in the second quarter, and was better than market expected 2.8%. From a single month, the GDP decreased by 0.6%month -on -month, better than the market expectations of 1.2%.

Affected by the news, on the afternoon of the 12th, the pound shook down against the US dollar. As of 20:10 Beijing time, the pound was reported to the US dollar 1.2135, a decrease of 0.5%.

Economics in the second quarter has shrunk

According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the British economy fell into atrophy in the second quarter, and GDP fell 0.1%month -on -month, slightly better than market expectations. But in comparison, the British GDP increased by 0.8%in the first quarter, reflecting signs of economic downturn to a certain extent.

Wei Hongxu, a researcher at the Anbang Think Tank Macro Economic Research Center, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald, "In the second quarter, the GDP declined and the year -on -year slowdown. Compared with the United States and the euro zone, Britain will be more affected because of the small market.

Affected by the surge in global energy prices, Britain's inflation "high fever is not retreat". In June, CPI rose 9.4%year -on -year, which was the highest in the record since 1982. In order to suppress inflation, the Bank of England has "forced" to turn the eagle. Last week, the benchmark interest rate raised the benchmark interest rate from 1.25%to 1.75%. The 50 basis points set the maximum interest rate hike in the 27 years in the United Kingdom.

Wei Hongxu pointed out that "currently the global inflation has a sign of slowing ', but the main developed countries including the United Kingdom, the level of inflation is still very high, bringing a lot of pressure on the central bank. As the Central Bank continues to increase interest rates, it has continued to increase interest rates. The impact on the economy will gradually increase, so that inflation and economic growth will decline simultaneously, which means that the possibility of Britain's decline is becoming more and more likely. "

At present, the British President of the UK, Andrew Bailey, did not make a tendency to the subsequent interest rate hike. The news on the 11th shows that the probability of 70%of the 50 basis points in the Bank of England in September was 70%.

"In fact, the future policy challenges of the British Bank of the United Kingdom have a great challenge. On the one hand, inflation is difficult to decline quickly, and on the other hand, the economy continues to decline, which makes it difficult. In the interest rate hike cycle, the United Kingdom is likely to fall into the dilemma of 'stagnation". "Wei Hongxu said.

For Britain, it will be a "dangerous stage" in the fourth quarter. The Bank of England has previously estimated that the British economy will enter the recession in the fourth quarter, and the CPI will exceed 13%at the same time.

Energy bills next year or £ 4,200

For follow -up economic trends, energy is still the top priority.

With the intensification of the European energy crisis, British natural gas prices have continued to rise. On August 12, ICE British natural gas in recent months was hovering at a high of 400 pence/kcal. As of press time, 394 pence/kcal.

For British residents, energy bills are already a expenditure that cannot be underestimated. Recently, Cornwall Insight has once again raised the average annual energy bill of British families. According to its latest forecast value, in the fourth quarter of this year, the average annual energy cost of British families will reach 3582 (about 29,300 yuan ), £ 4266 in the first quarter of 2023.

In the British and Chinese Sherry, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "The monthly (energy) cost of my family has doubled more than doubled, and the annual calculation has already exceeded the above (four quarters) average."

Sherry pointed out that "now the electricity bill only reaches more than 300 pounds per month (my family has construction, so this fee is not a normal value, it may be one -third to one -half), the electricity bill plus natural gas bills exceed 500 pounds. It is summer, and in winter, adding heating, it is estimated that the cost of natural gas is doubled. "

What is worse is that Britain will also face severe climate crisis. On the 12th local time, the British government announced that the southern, southwest and central regions of England entered a dry state. It is reported that the United Kingdom announced the last time that it entered a dry state in 2018. The rare drought occurrence is expected to continue to put pressure on local agricultural production and energy supply.

In today's situation, Britain's return to 2%of the inflation target is still "long -term". On August 17, the British CPI will be announced in July that the market is expected to continue to stand at a relatively high level.

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