CITIC solid revenue: residents' mortgage loans in the short term or slowing down

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 12th. On the evening of the 12th, CITIC Research Research Review July financial data mentioned that due to the falling of real estate sales again, in the future, resident mortgage loans may also slow down.

According to CITIC Harvest Research, on August 12, 2022, the central bank released the financial statistics report in July 2022. In July, the new RMB loan was 679 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 404.2 billion yuan; the social financing scale increased by 756.1 billion yuan. The year -on -year less increased by 319.1 billion yuan; July M2 was 12%year -on -year, the previous value was 11.4%, and the M1 currency supply was 6.7%year -on -year, the previous value was 4.6%, and the M0 currency supply was 13.9%year -on -year.

According to CITIC's research, the performance of financial data in July was obviously weakened, and the demand for physical financing was not good. Follow -up policies need not only improving physical expectations, boosting financing needs, but also to crack down on funds and prevent them from getting out of reality.

The Research Research Research on CITIC Harvest is as follows: First, the total credit of the credit has a poor structure. In July, RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan, an increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year, and the overall performance was not good. In addition to the possible factors of "Yin Eating Grain" behind the high -increase data in June, we can also see the challenges faced by the current financing demand recovery from the subdivision.

Observe the loan of the residential department. Residential loans increased by 121.7 billion yuan, an increase of 284.2 billion yuan year -on -year. Among them: ① medium- and long -term loans increased by 148.6 billion yuan, an increase of 248.8 billion yuan year -on -year: Since the beginning of this year, residents have been weak in buying houses and leverage. Although it has been restored slowly under the "policy of urban policies" in various places, 7 The monthly real estate risk incident has once again impacted the residents' medium- and long -term loans and dragged down physical needs. Affected by real estate sales fell again, resident mortgage loans may also slow down in the future. ② Short -term loan decreased by 26.9 billion yuan, an increase of 35.4 billion yuan year -on -year: the consumer demand replenishment after the epidemic quit in June, the residential short loans increased significantly year -on -year The epidemic is still existing, the offline activities of the residents are blocked, and the lack of consumer scenarios has led to the pre -cold demand for consumer loans and credit cards. The poor expectations for residents' future income will also lead to weakening short loans.

Observe the loan of the enterprise department. Enterprise (affairs) loans of industry units increased by 287.7 billion yuan, of which: ① medium- and long -term loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan, which was 147.8 billion yuan year -on -year: entering July, the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places was repeated Some production and investment activities are blocked, and the slope of financing demand has slowed down. Judging from the July PMI data, the production needs of manufacturing are weak, the repair of the service industry has slowed down, the endogenous power of real estate and consumer demand is insufficient, and the uncertainty of foreign demand has also increased. In early June, policy banks increased by 800 billion yuan in credit. From the data of July, it seemed that it had not yet exerted its power. Considering that the policy bank loan was often a large project such as infrastructure, it was expected to provide strong support for China -Longchang loans. ② Short -term loans decreased by 354.6 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 96.9 billion yuan; bill financing increased by 313.6 billion yuan, an increase of 136.5 billion yuan year -on -year: The interest rate of the last two trading days in July fell to the level of 0.2%. The reappearance of bills of bills reflects that there are still large contradictions between the current physical financing needs and the pressure of credit assessment.

The second is that non -standard regulatory relaxation, government debt is still the main support. The increase in the social increase in July was 756.1 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 319.1 billion yuan; the year -on -year growth rate of social integration was 10.8%, which was consistent from June. Among them, the increase in physical RMB loans was 408.8 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 430.3 billion yuan. The total scale of off -balance sheet financing continued to decline: the entrusted loan increased by 8.9 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 24 billion yuan; trust loan decreased by 39.8 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 117.3 billion yuan; 100 million yuan. In July, off -balance sheet financing decreased by 305.3 billion yuan. Considering the "steady growth" goal and some real estate cash flow problems, the subsequent non -standard pressure decrease is expected to maintain a weak level. The non -discounted bank acceptance bill is mainly related to the large number of discounts of banks. At the same time, the weak physical financing demand will also lead to the insufficient willingness to invoiced the enterprise.

Corporate bonds in July net financing of 73.4 billion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan year -on -year: In the context of poor physical financing demand, the willingness to issue bonds is also weak. At the same time, credit risk incidents have also caused debt issuance in some industries or fields The financing channel is blocked. Government bond net financing of 399.8 billion yuan, an increase of 217.8 billion yuan year -on -year: Under the requirements of the Ministry of Finance's "ensuring the basics of new special bonds before the end of June", the issuance of local government bonds was concentrated in the second quarter. The amount of financing has declined significantly from the previous month, but because the rhythm of local debt issuance last year was rear, the year -on -year increase of this month has also become the most important support for social integration. However, with the gradual use of the new increase in government bonds, the support of social finance in the future will be difficult to maintain. The increase in government bonds in the later stages of the third quarter may decrease, and it may even turn to less year -on -year.

Third, M2 has reached a new high in recent years, and fiscal investment continues to accelerate. In July, M2 increased by 12%year -on -year, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 3.7 percentage points higher than the same period last month and the same period last year, a new high after May 2016; M1 increased by 6.7%year -on -year, and the growth rates were compared to the end of last month and last year, respectively. 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points in the same period; M0 currency supply was 13.9%year -on -year. M2 has continued to grow, reaching a new high in recent years. The reason behind it is that the currency environment is loose and the financial investment has accelerated. At the same time, in the context of increasing the fluctuation of the equity market and insufficient consumption investment space, the border of the entity's savings will increase. In July, the "M2-Social Rong" scissors difference further expanded the trend, reflecting the "asset shortage" problem in the short term, and the liquidity of the accumulation of the inter-bank market was difficult to transmit to the entity, and even the liquidity trap may occur. In July, residents' deposits decreased by 338 billion yuan, non -financial enterprise deposits decreased by 1.04 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 486.3 billion yuan, and non -bank financial institutions deposits increased by 804.5 billion yuan: residents and corporate deposits increased significantly year -on -year instead of silver deposits. In addition to the increase in savings and the net financing of corporate debt, it may also be related to the current financial market income fluctuations, which leads to investors' redemption of wealth management and purchasing deposits. In the context of the increase of fiscal deposits year -on -year, it still increases 114.5 billion yuan compared to last year, reflecting the strong fiscal expenditure, and the financial direct funding is accelerated. More firm. CITIC's research summarizes that the financial data in July was obviously weakened, and the total amount and structure reflected that the current wide credit process was blocked and the task of stable growth was arduous. The difference in scissors of "Social Rong-M2" has expanded again. While the physical financing demand is not good, it is also necessary to be alert to liquidity trap. Follow -up policies need not only improving physical expectations, boosting financing needs, but also to crack down on funds and prevent them from getting out of reality. It is expected that the next stage is mainly based on the implementation of policies and measures, insist on not engaged in "big water perfusion", structural monetary policy tools have advanced and retreat, accurate support of policy financial instruments, and overall policy strengthening for support for key areas and weak links. Establishment. The financial data announced this time may arouse the market's concerns about the rhythm of the economic recovery and facilitate the debt market. Essence (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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