Yang Delong: A group of stable growth policies gradually landing consumption is to drive economic growth initiative

Yang Delong | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

On Friday, August 12, the central bank issued a report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the second quarter of the central bank to make specific deployment of monetary policy in the second half of the year. Since April, the market capital has continued to relax. In addition to the time point of time, the capital interest rate has maintained low operation. Judging from the recent seven -day pledge repurchase interest rate of bank deposit financial institutions, its weighted average interest rates have been below 1.43%since August, which is far lower than the current seven -day reverse repurchase interest rate of 2.1%. In the report, the central bank emphasized that since the second quarter of 2022, the public market's seven -day reverse repurchase and mid -term borrowing convenience (MLF) have remained unchanged. Balanced, the market interest rate represented by DR007 is still a high probability event to return to policy interest rates. The current market liquidity is relatively rich, which is conducive to boosting economic growth. The central bank proposes to conduct in -depth and judge the liquidity supply and demand status of the banking system, improve the forward -looking, flexibility and effectiveness of operations, and stabilize market expectations. In the near future, the central bank will maintain a small amount of reverse repurchase when the market interest rate has maintained a low position and abundant liquidity.

The Fed and the European Central Bank have adopted interest rate hikes this year, especially the Fed has raised interest rates four times, which will have a certain impact on the central bank's monetary policy. And the influence of capital flow, so it is important to maintain a stable monetary policy in terms of monetary policy. In terms of fiscal policy, we have issued measures in many places to stabilize the economic market by promoting consumption and stable investment. Expanding domestic demand is the focus of the second half of the year. In the future, more targeted measures may be introduced to consolidate the momentum of stability and stability. Consumption is currently the initiative to drive my country's economic growth. In 2021, the contribution of consumption to GDP has exceeded the total investment and exports, reaching about 65%. This year, due to the influence of epidemic control and control, the growth rate of consumption has declined significantly. Especially in the second quarter of the second quarter, the growth rate of consumption has experienced negative growth. As the epidemic is effectively controlled and controlled, the epidemic prevention and control measures are gradually adjusting. Some factors that suppress consumer growth are gradually eliminated. The problem of weak consumption will gradually be solved. The key to economic growth during a reasonable operation. Stabilizing the growth rate of consumption, it is necessary to stimulate consumption by issuing consumer vouchers or other methods, increase car consumption, expand service consumption, strengthen digital consumption, speed up consumption quality upgrades, etc. Consumption may become the next step of the A -share market rebounding. An important driving force.

When the market bottomed out on April 27, I suggested that investors should lay out two major directions for the benefit of economic transformation and consumption. New energy is less affected by the epidemic and high prosperity, so new energy is the first to start. From the second quarter report of the Qianhai Open Source Cleaning Energy Fund, I can see that I focus on the layout of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and other competitions. Taoist stocks, in order to seize the opportunity of carbon neutralization, achieve positive returns in the first half of the year, and perform well. With the gradual recovery of consumption in the second half of the year, consumer white horse stocks are expected to usher in the opportunity to recover, including industries such as liquor, medicine, food and beverage, tax exemption, etc. are expected to usher in the opportunity to recover. The Fund's second quarterly report has also been announced. In addition to the layout of new energy leaders, consumer white horse stocks are mainly deployed.

In the second half of the year, it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand. In addition to consumption, it is to expand effective investment. This is an important support for stable economic growth. Recently densely deployed investment, infrastructure and major projects have become the main starting point. Next week, the Bureau of Statistics will announce the economic operation data in July. As the policy of stabilizing the economy continues to take effect, data such as infrastructure and manufacturing investment and consumption in July are expected to improve. This year's automobile consumption has become the main force to drive the overall consumption. The data released by the China Automobile Association shows that the production and sales of automobiles in July reached 2.455 million and 2.42 million, respectively, an increase of 31.5%and 29.7%year -on -year. Stable growth, especially with the arrival of the traditional gold consumer season in the auto market in September, the production and sales of passenger cars are expected to grow rapidly, providing strong support for the annual stable growth. It is worth noting that the sales of new energy vehicles have a significant growth rate. In July, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 117%, which once again achieved double growth. The proportion of sales of new energy vehicles has increased to about 25%. In the current stimulation of new energy vehicle consumption, it can accelerate the replacement process of new energy vehicles on traditional fuel vehicles, but also help boost the growth rate of consumption and stable economic growth, and play a role in one arrow and double sculpture.

At present, the A -share market is in the period of shock adjustment. With the leadership of the market wind directional bids on Thursday, the market has rebounded significantly, and the fluctuation adjustment appears again on Friday, which shows that the current market does not have the foundation of a sharp rise. By layout of high -quality leading stocks or high -quality leading funds, waiting for the market to recover patiently is currently a better investment strategy. After the economic face has gradually recovered in the second half of the year, and the epidemic control measures are gradually adjusted, it is expected that the capital market will have a performance of recovery. In particular, some performance expectations will improve significant consumer white horse stocks. New energy leaders are still expected to lead the two cities.

In this year, my country's economy is influenced by super -expected factors. In the second quarter, a significant decline in the second quarter. With a package of measures to stabilize economic growth, the economy is expected to recover steadily in the second half of the year. Trend.In the first four months, a large adjustment of the A -share market has been greatly adjusted, which fully digested the sharp and air factor of the decline in economic growth. At the same time, it also reflects the influence of external factors such as Russia and Ukraine's conflict and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. In the second half of the year, the A -share marketIt is expected to rise in recovery, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is also expected to gradually recover the land at the beginning of the year.It is important to adhere to value investment in market shocks and maintain a good attitude. It is a better investment strategy to respond to market fluctuations by layout the wrong high -quality leading stocks or high -quality leader funds in the market adjustment.In the middle and long term, being a good shareholder or layout of high -quality funds in the company, changing space with time is one of the powerful means to achieve wealth preservation and appreciation.Responsible editor: Shi Jian | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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