How long can the price of pigs from raising a pig for a thousand yuan can last?

China Commercial Daily (Reporter Ma Jia) June to August each year should be the off -season of pig sales, but this year, there is a phenomenon that the off -season is not faint. Starting from mid -June, the price of pigs has been moving along the way, and the farming end has turned losses to profits. In July, the profit of raising a pig with a profit was the highest or even more than 1,000 yuan. In July of the pig companies listed on pig companies, the sales price of pigs also rose by nearly 30%. For the big pig farmers who are deeply trapped, how long can this rising rise?

Listed pig enterprises increased price increases

In July this year, the sales of pig companies listed on pig companies declined. According to incomplete statistics from the China Commercial Daily, as of now, 12 listed pig companies have announced the July pig sales briefing, and the total sales of pigs have exceeded 9 million. Among them, Makiyuan, Wen's shares, and new hope were ranked among the top three in the upper columns. Only Makiyuan's family was 4.594 million pigs. It is worth noting that compared with the previous month, the number of pigs in most pig companies declined. The number of pigs in Muyuan shares decreased by 12.98%month -on -month, and the number of pigs such as Tiankang Biology and Jin Xinnong decreased by more than 20%month -on -month.

Zhang Bin, a pig analyst at the Shanghai Steel Union Agricultural Products Division, told the China Commercial Daily reporter that from the perspective of the supply side, due to the overall de -capacity of the industry in 2021, the pig supply volume was theoretically tight after 10 months. In July of this year, some companies also had a pig supply disconnection. The rhythm of the scale of the scale was generally slowed down, and the number of outlets decreased from June. Affected by the supply, in July, the price of pigs showed a strong trend.

At present, the profit of the pig farm has appeared at the highest point of the year. Zhuochuang Information Monitoring data from the commodity analysis agency showed that after entering June, the price of pigs continued to rise. As of August 3, the average price of pig transactions at this stage was 19.7 yuan/kg, which was higher than the theoretical cost line of 4.7 yuan/kg. As the price of pigs continued to rise, began in mid -June, and the profit of pig farming rose from negative to positive, and rose from July 5 to a high point of 1094.77 yuan/head. From July 6th to August 3rd, the average profitability of self -cultivation was 860.48 yuan/head, which was significantly higher than the normal year.

Facing the rising price of pigs, the listed pig companies were relieved in terms of income. In terms of the average sales price, the nine listed pig companies increased by about 30%compared to the previous month. The revenue of Muyuan shares in July reached 10.491 billion yuan, exceeding the total monthly income of the other listed pig companies.

Industry or more rational

Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the pork industry chain monitoring and early warning of the entire industrial chain of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told a reporter from the China Business Daily that this round of this cycle has changed significantly compared with the previous few years. If the high point of the price rebound of pigs is between 21 yuan/kg and 22 yuan/kg, according to the current cost, it is actually a normal market fluctuation. In the first few rounds of cycles, the price of pigs rose and plummeted due to the impact of the disease, and this time the pig production was stable. At the same time, the scale and concentration of the entire industry also increased significantly compared with the previous. Influence, the changes in subsequent pig prices will also be milder.

The relevant person in charge of the marketing department of a domestic pig enterprise frankly admitted to reporters that from the perspective of an enterprise, the rise is normal, but the rise in this round of rise exceeds expectations. According to the investigation of the person in charge, in the face of this round of rise, most companies will not change major changes in capacity planning for the time being. One is that the current production capacity has basically reached the high point in recent years, and the other is that pig farming requires long -term capital investment. Enterprises still mainly consider the input -output ratio.

Zhengbang Science and Technology stated that in July of this year, the changes in the number of pigs' sales and sales revenue were mainly due to the company's reduction of production capacity. The new hope also stated that the main reason for the increase in pig sales year -on -year is the normal release of production capacity. Wen's shares also believe that the average price of pig sales in July was mainly affected by the changes in the domestic pig market.

The new hope frankly: "We think the price of 22 yuan/kg -23 yuan/kg is already very high, and the price of pigs in some areas reached 25 yuan/kg in early July. The semi -annual market will be significantly better than the first half of the year, but the second half of the year will not be smooth sailing, and a certain price will fall. "

Shanghai Steel Union -My Agricultural Products Network data shows that in August, the pig farm out of large -scale enterprises increased slightly by 3.77%, and the changes were not obvious. "In July and August, it belongs to the high temperature and off -season. According to the background of the past experience and weak demand, the scale field will generally choose to reduce the amount of columns, and the current transition is mainly based on the progress. The price of pigs in August is relatively weaker than July, but the outlet plan of the large -scale pig farm is generally increased. In addition, the demand after the end is heating or driving the short -term market to stimulate the enthusiasm of the farming column. Therefore The month -on -month increase, "Zhang Bin said.

The price of pigs in the third quarter may decline

Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Wang Yaman believes that the demand for pigs in August may be low, and traditional festivals and customs have a weak effect on the rise of the market. Except for the traditional customs of "sticking autumn" in the north in early August, and the demand for pigs in some areas in the short -term performance of the short -term on the eve of the Chinese Yuan Festival, the market has no obvious factors in August. Faid more support. The pig market will still be in the transitional stage of the off -season to the peak season, and the demand side will have a weak role in boosting the price of pigs. Zhang Bin said that in the short -term perspective, the supply of large pigs decreased, and the phased supply in August is still tight or continuous, and it still supports the price. Essence But in the context of traditional off -season, pig prices may increase. Although there are good holidays in the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day in October, there are many early -stage farmers' secondary fattening, pig pig supplement columns, or concentrated sales. The market for pigs in the market will increase concentrated, and the risk of decline in the price of pigs still exists.

"If you look at the average cost of 17 yuan/kg in the current industry, the price of 27 yuan/kg -28 yuan/kg can basically reach balance. If the price per kilogram exceeds 28 yuan, especially more than 30 yuan. Basically, it will be suppressed in consumption. July and August is the off -season of pig consumption, and the pig market enters the stage of supply and demand stalemate. From late July, although the price of pigs has fluctuated frequently, the overall trend will still occur. "Zhu Zengyong said.

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