CPI data is announced!Gold price rush!

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 8.5%year -on -year, lower than 9.1%in June, and was 8.7%lower than the market expected value. The decline of the US CPI echoed the point of view of inflation to a certain extent. The interest rate hikes of the Fed are no longer urgent when the CPI continued to rise. After the data was released, the international gold price once rushed to $ 1,800/ounce.

International spot gold price daily map

Since August 3 rebounded at 1753.7 US dollars/ounce, it rose to $ 1807.9/ounce on the 10th

Text | "China Gold News" reporter Jiao Yang

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

In order to not lose control of Congress in the mid -term elections in November, the Bayeng government had to use its best solutions in controlling inflation, which included but not limited to the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, repeatedly emphasizing control of inflation, etc. For means, even if there is doubts about the fraudulent data such as non -agricultural employment, the US CPI data in the United States in July finally broke the trend of moving all the way during the year and began to fall. This caused the probability of 75 basis points at the interest rate hike at the September interest rate interest rate to 43.5%, and the previous probability was 68%. The probability of falling on the fell -fell CPI data increased the probability of 50 basis points to 56.5%. This is also in line with Powell mentioned at the press conference after the July interesting meeting, and the interest rate hike will depend on economic data.

The international gold price rushed to the top of 1,800 US dollars per ounce after the CPI data was just announced. However, as the Federal Reserve digital officials stated that the inflation rate was still too high, even if the US economic recession was at the cost of the US economy, the inflation rate had to be lowered. Affected by this, the international gold price fell to US $ 1,800/below.

Can the golden price enter the upward channel again, or the direction of oscillating again?

1

Gold price oscillating view

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Zhang Yingying, an analyst of COFCO Qifeng Fengfeng metal, believes that the fall of inflation data in the United States has mainly benefited from the decline in crude oil prices. The inflation expectations hidden in the US bond market have appeared in March this year. Since 2020, inflation expectations are expected to be 6 After a month, the interpretation of inflation is more than 90%. If this data is calculated, the inflection point of American inflation is likely to occur in the third quarter of this year. Looking forward, if the inflation data in the next two months is flat or continued, the inflation inflection point can be officially confirmed. In the case where inflation is still at a high level and the Fed's interest rate hike is not over, it is still believed that the remaining time of gold during the year will be based on the trend of oscillation. The main transaction center range is $ 1700/ounce of $ 1,850/ounce. Domestic investors also need to pay attention to changes in domestic gold prices. Under the same conditions, the downside of the RMB exchange rate will benefit domestic gold prices, and the upward will be the domestic gold price.

Independent analyst Lu Chao also believes that the price of gold will show an oscillating trend. In July, CPI increased by 8.50%year -on -year, lower than the average market expectations of 8.7%. The capital market was extremely excited. The three major US stocks rose on the same day. However, the gold market was not shocked, and even a downward trend after rushing. The capital market seeks stimulating points, but gold shows its stable side. 8.5%of inflation levels are far from the Fed's interest rate hike to inhibit inflation 2%. The decline of CPI data in July can only show that the Fed's interest rate hike medication is valid. It is impossible to stop medication and even increase the amount. Therefore, the excitement of the capital market is short -lived, and pain will be long -term. After this major news landed, the gold market came out of the market that expected to sell the facts. Explain that the short -term bulls continue to fear the big background of the Fed's continuous interest rate hike. In terms of geopolitics, it is expected to provide a certain support for gold prices during the fall.

2

Gold price upward view

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Zhaojin Refined Analyst Liu Shikai is optimistic about the price of gold or will take off again. He pointed out that the CPI data caused the Fed's radical interest rate hike to cool down. The probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike at 75 basis points at the September interest rate interest rate was greatly reduced, and it was even more inclined to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. After the data was announced, the US debt yield and the US dollar index decreased significantly, and the price of gold rose 17 US dollars in a short -term.

With the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike in July, 75 basis points landed, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes 225 basis points in the short four times since March. Such an aggressive interest rate hike policy has a rare history, which has also caused the market The concerns of the US economic decline have intensified. Although the non -agricultural employment data in July caused the concern of the economic recession to cool down, the retransmission of GDP in the second quarter of the United States and the further expansion of US debt yields, indicating that the US economy has recession. Signal. At the same time, with the further reduction of the Fed's interest rate hike space, the impact of interest rate hikes on the price of gold gradually weakened, and the prosperity will be exhausted. In the next period of time, the price of gold may take off again. The short -term moving average of the Golden Daily Line is arranged in a long time. The gold price relies on the 5 -day moving average support to rise steadily. The good trend of upward trend is expected to further rise. The uplink resistance focuses on nearly $ 1830/ounces of $ 1830/ounce in the daily chart, and the position of 50%of the 2070-1680 golden segmentation line is nearly $ 1875/ounce. The following focus on supporting $ 1750 and $ 1780/ounce.

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