Musk has established a small goal of "100 million", and the car is "making people" and "making people"

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Song Jie | Shanghai report

Ten years ago, Tesla only produced about 3,000 cars; today, 10 years later, this number has exceeded 3 million vehicles; in 10 years, Musk said that Tesla has confidence in achieving more than 100 million vehicles more than 100 million vehicles. Production goals.

On August 5th, Beijing time, the Tesla Shareholders Conference was held in Austin, Texas, USA. Tesla CEO Musk and executives shared Tesla's financial, business development, forward -looking technology and other issues.

In the first half of 2022, despite the test of the Shanghai epidemic, Tesla Shanghai Super Factory still produced nearly 300,000 cars, and the delivery volume in half a year had accounted for more than 60 % of the annual delivery volume in 2021. After the comprehensive resumption of work in Shanghai, Tesla Shanghai Super Factory replaced the monthly sales performance of the pre -epidemic record, which once again demonstrated the strong toughness of China's economy.

Perhaps because of this, at this Tesla's meeting, Musk praised China again. He said: "It is difficult for the Shanghai team to be surpassed."

Why do you praise the Shanghai factory?

The reporter noticed that Musk praised China many times and like the Shanghai Super Factory. During the 2019 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, he bluntly stated that Tesla could come to Shanghai. The huge progress in Shanghai has seen a good case all over the world. A innovative company can make good progress in China. This is very enviable. I pay tribute to everyone, you are great. "

If the Shanghai Lingang in 2019 is where the Tesla's "Chinese Dream" began, then in 2021, Tesla ushered in its "highlight moment" in just two years, and the "blessing" of the Shanghai Super Factory in Shanghai In the following, Tesla almost got rid of the "constraints" of production capacity. This year, Tesla delivered 936,000 cars worldwide, of which Tesla China was delivered as high as 51.7%. At that time, Tesla's market revenue in the Chinese market reached US $ 13.844 billion, an increase of 107.8%year -on -year. You must know that in 2017, Tesla's Chinese sales were only $ 2.027 billion. At this year, Tesla became the fifth company with a market value of over trillion after Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google's parent company Alphabet, and Musk also stabilized the world's richest man.

At the Tesla Sharing Settlement Conference in 2021, Musk again praised the Shanghai factory's efforts. He said: "Shanghai Super Factory has amazing quality and operating efficiency of vehicles, it is great!"

In 2022, the Shanghai Super Factory held multiple pressures such as limited production and stop work brought about by the epidemic, and co -created the highest monthly output records in history with Fremont Factory. Musk again praised at the shareholders' meeting: "Austin, Front, and Berlin's three factories will form a benign competition, but it is difficult for Shanghai Super Factory to be surpassed. I must admit that our Shanghai team is really very very very like outstanding."

Can 100 million small targets achieve?

Musk said at this year's shareholders' meeting that five years ago, many car companies avoided electric vehicles; now, most car companies have accepted electrification and recognized Tesla's direction. "Tesla is not going to occupy more market share. If you can show a very competitive electric car to the industry, people rush to buy it. This is a far -reaching thing."

Regarding the "small goal" of the production of 100 million cars, Musk said at the end of the speech: "If the cumulative total of not more than 100 million after 10 years, I will be surprised."

Where does Musk's confidence come from? Look at the data.

According to the Chinese car sales data of the China Federation, in June, Tesla's domestic delivery volume reached a record high of 7,7938 units, an increase of 177%year -on -year. As of July, Tesla Shanghai Super Factory had been delivered to global users with a total of 323,000 vehicles, of which 206,000 were delivered in the domestic market. In the first half of this year, Tesla's global delivery volume reached 565,000 units, and a total of nearly 300,000 cars produced in the Shanghai plant.

According to the information disclosed by Tesla at this year's shareholders' meeting, in 2022, Tesla is expected to produce 1.5 million vehicles worldwide; at the end of this year, Tesla's global annualized capacity is expected to exceed 2 million units.

Late this year, Tesla will announce the site selection results of the latest factory. Tesla expects that a total of 10-12 super factories will be completed in the world, and the annual capacity of each super factory is expected to reach 1.5 million to 2 million units. At present, the Fremont plant has become the highest production capacity in North America.

Tesla estimates that from the perspective of revenue, Model Y will be the best -selling car this year; if it is calculated based on sales, Model Y will become the best -selling car next year.

"Humanoid robot Optimus is more valuable than cars"

Musk specifically mentioned at this year's shareholders' meeting that Tesla human -shaped robot Optimus will be more valuable than cars. At the "AI Day" held at the end of September, Tesla will bring the latest progress of many products and technologies such as humanoid robots, FSDs.

According to the data, Tesla BOT is called Optimus, a humanoid robot with 1.72m height, weighing 57kg, loaded 20kg (5kg of the arm), walking speed of 2m/s, which uses Tesla's advanced AI technology. The autonomous driving technology driver based on the predictive ability of the visual neural network neuropathy, and has a high computing chip with a strong computing power. TESLA BOT uses 40 motor push rods as a whole to make it very flexible and coordinated, and it is equipped with a FSD computer+autonomous driving camera, which has enough computing power and perception ability. For Tesla, TESLA BOT brings not less than cars, and has become an important product development project in 2022. Tesla said that he hopes to use it to solve the restrictions on labor shortage. According to Tesla's announcement, it is expected that Tesla BOT is expected to increase the size of the core component market after mass production.

At the Cyber ​​Rodeo event in 2022, the host Anderson estimated that the Tesla BOT price will be set at $ 25,000. For the first time, the robot price will be brought to the level of consumption level, which is expected to promote the large -scale business promotion of humanoid robots.

Because the freedom of humanoid robots is much higher than traditional robots, it may bring about changes in the industrial chain. Tianfeng Securities estimates that the penetration rate of Tesla BOT in the field of service robots and industrial robots in 2025 is estimated to reach 15%and 3%, respectively, corresponding to the market of 56.728 billion yuan and 26.122 billion yuan.

Responsible editor | Yang Lin

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