Borrowing costs have been significantly impacted in the U.S. real estate market

High inflation has suppressed the actual capacity of American residents, and the Fed's radical interest rate hike has greatly increased the cost of borrowing. Under the effect of various factors, the US real estate market is facing impact.

Recent data shows that the activeness of borrowing in the U.S. real estate market and the sales volume of houses have declined. On August 10th (local time, the same below), the US mortgage bank Association (MBA) announced the data on August 5th. Essence As an important indicator of the real estate market, the decline in loan applications reflects the low market activity.

"Even though the employment market is tight, the house purchase market continues to perform sluggish. In the past six weeks, the activity of five weeks has been decreasing. The cost of buying a house has soared, and the public has chosen in the case of decline in the future economy. Wait and see. "Joel Kan, vice president of MBA economy and industry strategy.

According to the latest data of the American Real Estate Broker Association (NAR), the trend of declining house sales in the United States has continued for a long time. It has continued to grow negatively in August 2021. In June 2022 The decline reached -14.2%, and the sales volume of the house in the month hit a two-year low.

The Fed's radical interest rate hikes should curb inflation, and the continuous rising policy interest rates are transmitted to mortgages, and the rising costs continue to erode the buyers' purchase capabilities.

Wind information data shows that the US 30 -year mortgage fixed interest rate has risen by more than 64%from early 2022 to the end of July. MBA predicts that the total US mortgage loan borrowing will decrease by 18%in 2022.

"The US economy may enter the recession in the first half of 2023, so subsequent loan activities will be further suppressed," said Jamie Woodwell, vice president of MBA commercial real estate research.

With the lower borrowing loan, on August 8, Fanglimei's latest data shows that the US house purchase emotion index fell by 2 points in July to 62.8, the lowest level since 2011. The survey targets generally have a pessimistic attitude towards the current buying and sales environment. Only 17%of the respondents believe that the current house purchase is suitable, and the willingness to sell houses will continue to decline.

The report released by Nar's website RealTor.com also showed that in July, the inventory of the American active listing housing increased by 30.7%year -on -year, creating the highest historical value. The inventory of houses to be sold is 3.5%year -on -year, which is the first growth since September 2019. Industry insiders believe that the decline in demand for house purchase is also an important reason for the growth of housing inventory.

The poor performance in the real estate market has led to a negative growth of GDP in the second quarter of the United States, which may continue to drag the economy. "The decline in real estate investment is an important reason for dragging the growth of GDP in the second quarter. Direct investment in real estate accounts for less than 5%of the US GDP, but the growth rate has fallen sharply to -14%. At the same time, the growth rate of commercial buildings has fallen to -11.7% A total of 1 percentage point of GDP has been dragged down. "Northeast Securities believes that under the context of high interest rates, demand decline and the decline in confidence in builders, it is expected that real estate investment may continue to affect GDP growth. (Reporter Zhu Baochen Xuejue reporter Han Yu)

[Editor in charge: Li Tong]

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