"Fake falls" become "true decline"?

The US economy's transcript in the second quarter has been announced. As the news revealed by the former White House in the former White House, the U.S. economy in the second quarter was again negatively increased. The annual rate of GDP fell by 0.9%month -on -year, and the second quarter shrinking in the second consecutive quarter. According to the standard judgment that will be regarded as a decline in negative growth for two consecutive quarters, the US economy has appeared "technical decline".

However, unlike the decline of the classic economic cycle theory, the unemployment rate rises and the price of prices is still low. The current unemployment rate is still at a low level since the 1970s. "Stagging", "stagnation" and "swelling" coexisting more prominent. So, will the U.S. economy evolve from a technological recession to a substantial recession?

The core growth of the United States economic growth momentum weakens

Although the US economy has a greater time in the first quarter of the year -on -quarter, reaching 1.6%, the core of the economic growth is that private consumption and investment growth are relatively stable. It is mainly due to the trade deficit, weak inventory growth, and government expenditure atrophy, so the atrophy at that time was largely a "fake fall", which could not be determined that the fundamental fundamentals of the US economy had been turned. But in the second quarter, the US economy had a wider deceleration than in the first quarter.

Consumption is still the main engine, but the contribution has weakened. The consumption of U.S. residents accounted for 70 % of the US economy, which is the key to determining the economic trend, and consumption is stable when consumption is stable. In the first two quarters of this year, American residents' consumption growth slowed for quarterly, with a discount of 1.8%and 1%, respectively. The driving for GDP growth from 1.24 percentage points in the first quarter to 0.7 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the decline in the decline in commodity consumption in the US residents has expanded, and the increase in service growth in services reflects that the focus of American residents' consumption demand during the post -epidemic period has shifted from commodity to services, and medical care, transportation, entertainment, catering and accommodation consumption have maintained growth. At the same time, since this year, the continuous rise in international grain and energy prices has a negative impact on the consumption of food, drinks, gasoline and other goods in the United States. Two consumption expenditures have been negatively growing in two consecutive quarters, becoming an important factor in dragging on the growth of commodity consumption.

Investment has shrunk sharply, and contribute to growth from positive. Although US private investment accounts for less than 20 % of the GDP, it fluctuates a large marginal variable that affects the US economic performance. In the first two quarters, the growth rate of private investment in the United States from the previous quarter increased from 5%to the second quarter of the year -on -quarter. percentage point. In each sub -item, the inventory investment expanded from 0.35 percentage points in the first quarter to 2.01 percentage points from 0.35 percentage points in the first quarter, reflecting that the peak of the company's replenishment after the epidemic has passed, and high retail industries and other industries are also facing the pressure of destocking. At the same time, the constant financing environment has also begun to affect corporate capital expenditure and housing investment decisions, and equipment and residential investment have declined in the second quarter.

Government expenditure continued to decline and continued to drag economic growth. As the fiscal relief measures introduced during the epidemic period have gradually expired, the US government's expenditure continued to shrink. As of the second quarter, the US government's expenditure had declined for three consecutive quarters for three consecutive quarters, and the decline in the second quarter was 1.9%. Among them, the federal government's non -national defense expenditure has declined for five consecutive quarters, and the decline in the second quarter has reached 10.5%. In the context of high inflation, the US government will reduce deficit and reduce the borrowing of the federal government as a way to relieve inflation. Biden said in May that it will reduce the US $ 1.5 trillion federal deficit before the end of this fiscal year (until the end of September), which will also become "the largest year of a single -year deficit in American history." The cost is to continue to pressure economic growth. In the past three quarters, government expenditure's drag on GDP growth has reached 0.46, 0.51, and 0.33 percentage points, respectively.

Overall, the statement of the US economy in the second quarter prominently manifested the core of domestic demand -the growth of residential consumption and investment growth, indicating that high inflation and tight currency have begun to erode the endogenous growth momentum of the US economy.

"Stadium" is the manifestation of the impact of the epidemic and the sequelae of the policy

According to the analysis framework of the economic cycle, only when the economy is overheating, that is, the actual economic growth is significantly higher than that of the potential growth level, will the labor market be in short supply and inflation has risen sharply. One of the prominent features of the US economy recovery is that when the output gap has not been repaired, employment and inflation have occurred in the lack of labor and high inflation when the economy is overheating.

The old American economy has not healed and has new worries. The current economic recovery of the United States began in May 2020. At that time, with the gradual restart of economic activities, the fiscal and monetary policy was superimposed, and many economic indicators improved. The growth rate suddenly jumped from -31.2%of the previous quarter to 33.8%, until the growth of GDP in the fourth quarter of last year still achieved a high growth rate of 6.9%. The size of the US GDP also exceeded the pre -outscented level in the first quarter of 2021, and was close to the long -term growth trend level in the fourth quarter of last year. Nevertheless, the economy has been restarted so far, and the US economy is still in the process of output gap restoration. According to data from the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization, the US output gap in 2021 was -1.5%. In the first half of 2022, the continuous shrinking of the US GDP caused the continuous narrowing output gap to expand again, which means that the American production capacity is still unable to have idle production capacity. Effective use. The shrinking of the US economy is actually a repetition in the process of economic restoration during the post -epidemic period, which is a reflection of the impact of the epidemic and stimulating the sequelae of the policy. "Stagging" reflects the continuous adjustment of the US economic supply and demand mismatch. Compared with the economic recovery process, the United States employment and inflation are obviously "super -adjustment". On the one hand, in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate reduction reduced the benchmark interest rate to 0 to 0.25%, and opened a "unlimited" quantitative easing policy. Cooperating with the currency "large water release", the US government has launched the seven round of fiscal bailout rescue bill, with a cumulative amount of US $ 6.8 trillion, which has jointly promoted the excessive expansion of the total demand; on the other hand, a large unemployment relief fund The distribution delayed the unemployment population to return to the employment market. The labor market supply shortage of the shortage of international supply chain interruptions, semiconductor and other industries such as "lack of cores", and the Russian and Ukraine conflict have formed a series of supply shocks, which exacerbated the tension of supply and demand. The United States has a special scene where low unemployment, high inflation and output gaps exist at the same time. The current slowdown in the US economy is the result of re -adjusting the matching of supply and demand under the action of price and policy. The slowdown in the growth of consumption and investment will cause the total demand of the previous excessive expansion. Currency foundation.

The path of the U.S. economy will be narrowed in the future of soft landing

The so -called "illness is like a mountain, the illness is like a shredded", and the "high fever" in the US economy has a rapid onset and sharpness. Although the Federal Reserve has undergone "fierce medicine" in response to high inflation, 75 basis points have been raised twice in a row. , Single interest rate hikes hit the largest since November 1994, but the policies have been stagnant and have obvious side effects.

The core inflation rate of the United States fluctuates in M ​​-shaped high. The US core inflation changes from the previous month. It has obvious seasonal characteristics. Judging from the historical data from 2011 to 2019, the first quarter and third quarters were two highs of the US core CPI increased in the year -on -year increase. In the second quarter, the increase in the second quarter was usually narrowed significantly compared with the first quarter, and the fourth quarter often decreased from the previous quarter. Therefore, in the case of no new price shock, if the changes in US inflation follow the law of the year in the future, then the core inflation rate in the United States has a high probability that it will rebound in the third quarter after the annual decline, and further decline in the fourth quarter again in the fourth quarter. Essence Considering that the price of US prices rose rapidly in the first half of the year, under the base effect, the core inflation rate at the end of the year is likely to remain at a high level of more than 5%. Even if the subsequent interest rate hikes are reduced, it will still maintain a certain tightening intensity. At the subsequent three interest rate conferences, it may still raise interest rates from 25 to 50 basis points.

The "soft landing" path of the US economy has narrowed. According to the estimates of the Fed and the US Congress Budget Office, the current potential growth rate of the United States is about 1.8%. The US high inflation "cooling" means that the economic growth rate needs to fall below the potential growth rate, and the unemployment rate will increase accordingly. The International Monetary Fund has recently reduced the US economic growth forecast in 2022 from 3.7%to 2.3%, and the growth forecast of 2023 growth from 2.3%to 1%. The Fed expects that the US economy will increase by 1.7%this year and next, and the unemployment rate will rise to 3.9%next year.

At present, although the tension of the labor market has led to the continued growth of US residents 'wages, high inflation erosion and erosion of residents' actual purchasing power, the actual disposable income of American residents will not increase and fall. As of the second quarter, the actual disposable income of American residents has five consecutive consecutive five consecutive consecutive consecutive The quarter -quarter decrease. At the same time, the rise in mortgage interest rates will further cool down the US real estate market, which is not conducive to the growth of real estate investment. Moreover, as the inventory cycle ushered in an inflection point, the role of replenishment on the economic pulling effect will be further reduced. In addition, the deceleration of the world economy will make it difficult for US exports to grow high. High inflation and uncertainty of midterm elections will further limit the possibility of Congress to adopt a new large -scale stimulus bill, which will cause the finance to have a continuous tightening effect on the US economy. Therefore, the US economy is also difficult to improve in the second half of the year. Whether it will evolve from the "technical" decline to "substantial" decline in the future, it will largely depend on whether the US monetary policy will re -balance "preservation growth" and "lower inflation". Essence After all, although high inflation is not allowed to be popular, negative growth is not popular.

(Author: Zhao Shuogang, deputy director of the World Economic Research Office of the National Information Center Economic Forecast Department)

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