Inflation will continue to raise interest rate hikes at a high level of high -level Federal Reserve

Xinhua News Agency, Washington, August 11th (International Observation) Inflation will continue to raise interest rates at high -level Federal Reserve.

Xinhua News Agency reporter Xiong Maoling Xuyuan

According to data from the US Department of Labor, the year -on -year increase in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at a high level of nearly 40 years. Observer believes that the latest data shows that the United States may have signs of inflation alleviating, but core inflation is still hovering at a high position. It takes time to fall in inflation. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue to raise interest rates, and it is difficult to slow down the pace in the short term.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on the 10th, the US CPI was flat in July, up 8.5%year -on -year, and the increase was narrowed slightly from 9.1%in June. After eliminating the price of large fluctuations, the core CPI rose 0.3%month -on -month, which narrowed from the previous three months; the year -on -year increased by 5.9%, and the increase was the same as in June.

In the month, energy prices decreased by 4.6%month -on -month, but still climbed sharply by 32.9%year -on -year; food prices rose 1.1%month -on -month, up 10.9%year -on -year, the highest increase in May 1979; The month -on -month increased by 0.5%, a year -on -year increase of 5.7%.

The economist of the American Institute of Enterprise Dustand Rachman told Xinhua News Agency that the main reason for the overall inflation in the United States in July is the decline in oil prices and air ticket prices. The background is that the global economic prospects have caused international oil prices Fall.

Wells Fargo Securities analysts Sarah Hus and Michael Pogley believe that in addition to the decline in oil prices and air ticket prices, the decline in the price of second -hand cars and the decline in tourism services such as car rental and accommodation have also led to the decline in CPI's year -on -year increase.

In addition, some analysts believe that with the sharp interest rate hikes of the Fed to curb inflation, the US economic growth has slowed significantly and shrinks for two consecutive quarters, which has caused the US economy to fall into a technical decline, which is also one of the factors that lead to decline in prices.

Rahman believes that the latest CPI data indicates that inflation may have been "top." However, data from the Ministry of Labor show that since March of this year, the monthly inflation rate in the United States has exceeded 8%, which means that the Federal Reserve still has a long way to go.

Ellen Demester, a senior economist at UBS group, pointed out that the key indicator rental of the core inflation rate will remain high before the end of 2024. Graig Dak, chief economist of Bo Zhilong, the Consultant Eshelon -Bo Zhilong company, predicts that demand in the next few months will be cooled and overall inflation will accelerate.

Dako believes that the slowdown in inflation means that the Fed will be more inclined to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the September Monetary policy meeting.

Wells Fargo Securities analysts, Hus and Pig Lize, pointed out that Fed officials have clearly stated that before the turning of monetary policy, they need to see the clear evidence of continuous slowdown in inflation. This means that the more weakened inflation data can make the Federal Public Marketing Committee believe that prices are controlled. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates at least 50 basis points at the September meeting.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes in June and July this year's monetary policy meeting, which was the largest concentrated interest rate hike since the early 1980s. The Federal Reserve President Powell said after the meeting at the end of July that in the next few months, the Fed will find "convincing" evidence of inflation and continuously raising interest rates. At the September meeting "Rating" may be appropriate.

The Federal Reserve Director Michelle Bowman said a few days ago that before seeing inflation decreased in a continuous and meaningful way, it should be considered as a 75 -basis range of interest rate hikes.

The Fed will hold the next monetary policy meeting from September 20th to 21st. The Fed observation tools of the Chicago Commodity Exchange show that as of the evening of the 10th local time, traders expect the probability of 50 basis points to raise interest rates in September of 57.5%, which is higher than the probability of 75 basis points in interest rate hikes.

Nevertheless, Rahman believes that in order to control inflation, the Fed may continue to raise interest rates 75 basis points under the circumstances of weakening economy and inflation. He also pointed out that curbing inflation is "very likely" at the cost of hard economic landing.

[Editor in charge: Jiao Peng]

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