How to break the situation steadily and reduce inflation?The central bank's second quarter monetary policy report gives signals

China Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Liu Jia Beijing report

At present, global economic growth has slowed down, high inflation operations, geopolitical conflicts continue, and the external environment is more complicated and severe. The monetary policy report as the meaning of the "vane" significance has highlight the importance of the central bank's "stable prices" compared with the first quarter.

On August 10, the central bank pointed out in the "Report on the Implementation of China Monetary Policy in 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") that the GDP (GDP) in the first half of this year increased by 2.5%year -on -year, of which in the second quarter year -on -year year -on -year The increase of 0.4%, holding the pressure to achieve positive growth; the consumer price index (CPI) in the first half of the year rose 1.7%year -on -year, maintaining the stability of the price situation in the background of the global high inflation.

The central bank predicts that due to the recovery of consumer demand, the lagging transmission of PPI to CPI, the opening cycle of a new round of pork prices, the cost of energy and raw materials is still high, the domestic structural inflation pressure may increase, and the input inflation pressure still exists still exists Essence

"The CPI increase in the second half of this year will rise, and the center will rise horizontally compared with the first half of the year. In some months, the increase may exceed 3%. In this regard, we must pay close attention to this, strengthen monitoring and judgment, and be alert to the pressure of inflation and rebound." The central bank said.

For monetary policy, the central bank states that it will persist in steady orientation, insist on not engaged in "big water perfusion", no currency, and taking into account the balance of steady growth, employment, and price stability.

CPI individual month may break 3%

High inflation has become the most important challenge for the current global economic development.

In June, the US CPI and the euro zone HICP rose by 9.1%and 8.6%year -on -year, respectively. Ever 40 years and the statistical high, macro policies have fallen into a dilemma of steady growth and inflation.

How to objectively judge the future inflation situation? The central bank believes that, on the one hand, from the fundamental point of view, my country has favorable conditions for maintaining the overall stability of the price level; on the other hand, it must be seen that the structural inflation pressure in my country may increase, and the input inflation pressure still exists, and multiple weights are still existed. Price gains under factors may rebound in a phase, and it cannot be taken lightly.

The central bank expects that the price increase will still run in a reasonable range this year, and it is expected to achieve the expected target of about 3%of the annual CPI increase of about 3%.

At the same time, the central bank also pointed out that from the domestic perspective, many factors superimposed will increase the central staging of inflation. The main pressure comes from: First, the future consumption recovery recovery after the epidemic control may promote the increase in the transmission of PPI to CPI in the early stage. Second, my country's CPI baskets rely on the price of foods, especially pork. At present, a new round of "pig cycle" has been opened, and the increase in CPI food points may increase. Third, my country's imports of energy and natural gas such as oil and natural gas are high. The rise in energy import costs will eventually reflect the widespread price increase of domestic transportation and related industrial chain terminal consumer products.

"Comprehensive research and judgment, it is expected that my country's CPI operation center in the second half of this year will rise from 1.7%in the first half of the year. In some months, the increase in the month may exceed 3%, and the structural inflation pressure will increase." The central bank emphasized.

On the 10th, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in July 2022, the CPI rose 2.7%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, slightly expanding. The reason is that "pig vegetable resonance" is the main reason for promoting the rise in food prices.

PPI rose 4.7%year -on -year, and the increase fell by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, a significant decrease year -on -year.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said: "On the whole, it is expected that the CPI will rise mildly in the future. In some months (September and December), the probability of breaking 3%up to 3%, but the annual average level will still control the policy goals throughout the year. Inside. At the same time, PPIs are affected by the base of last year and the rising kinetic energy of global commodity prices will continue to continue to decline. Combined with the two aspects of CPI and PPI '"

Be wary of inflation and rebound pressure

It is worth noting that the central bank repeatedly mentioned "structural inflation pressure" repeatedly in the report.

In response, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed the reporter of the Huaxia Times that there may be two meanings here.

First of all, "structural" means that due to the rise in pork prices, the high increase in PPI in the early stage, the lagging conduction of CPI, and the energy prices such as oil will still be at a high level. However, the prices of most goods and services will remain stable; secondly, the rise in the price of some consumer goods will promote the overall CPI increase in the second half of the year, and the monthly month will be higher than 3%, but the overall price level in China will still be mild.

Wang Qing judged that the risk of comprehensive high inflation is not high. A sign is that the core CPI increase of food and energy prices in the second half of the year is difficult to reach 2 % (0.8 % in July). "This means that overseas high inflation is attracting the central bank's attention. And pay more attention to domestic stable prices. "

When talking about the policy ideas at the next stage, the central bank said that monetary policy will adhere to the steady orientation, insist on not engaged in "large water irrigation", no currency, and take care of the balance of stable growth, employment, and price stability. "On the one hand, continuously consolidate the favorable conditions of domestic food stable production and the smooth operation of the energy market, pay close attention to the changes in the inflation situation at home and abroad, and make proper responses; on the other hand, continue to maintain a reasonable liquidity, increase support for the real economy Strong, maintain a reasonable increase in currency supply and social financing scale, and strive to achieve the best results throughout the year's economic operation. " Method. "Yang Chang, the person in charge of the policy team of the China -Thailand Institute of Securities Research, told the reporter of the Huaxia Times that if the price falls within the scope of tolerance, the policy focus will still fall at the level of promoting economic and employment restoration; It may form a driving force for adjusting monetary policy.

The Southwest Securities Research Report believes that the pressure of inflation in the second half of the year may be strengthened, but the prices of upstream products such as crude oil in the near future have fallen, and the second half of the year is affected by the slowdown in overseas tightening policies and the slowdown in demand growth. The pressure will also fall, so inflation pressure or the whole is still in a controllable range, and the impact on domestic monetary policy is relatively limited.

But in the final analysis, the primary problem faced in China is to promote economic restoration as soon as possible, rather than the inflation of the US beating economy. "Wang Qing said that the key difference between this economic fundamental face determines that the domestic monetary policy in the second half of the year is not the case. It will follow major overseas central banks such as the Federal Reserve.

Editor -in -chief: Meng Junlian Editor: Zhang Zhiwei

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