811 Hui Reform Seventh Anniversary: The toughness and background of the renminbi

When Ouyang Xiaohong/Wen's US dollar index surged repeatedly this year, the renminbi depreciation of the devil -although it did not completely subspeges, it has also faded.

When did the market entities become light and light on the exchange rate fluctuations? Behind this is economic toughness and institutional design, and there are more continuous pressure tests, especially in 2022, it is time to test the renminbi toughness. Export data in July confirmed that the fundamental fundamentals of China's economy were failed, but in the strong dollar cycle, the RMB maintained or not easy.

Remember today seven years ago? On August 11, 2015, the US dollar reported to the RMB 6.2298, a depreciation of 1.86%compared with the previous trading day. On the same day, the People's Bank of China stated that it was decided to improve the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate. The 811 exchange was changed to watershed, and the RMB exchange rate bid farewell to the unilateral appreciation mode. The elastic two -way floating gradually became a new normal.

Since the reform of 811, the middle price of the RMB has depreciated by 8.5%of the US dollar. In the second quarter of 2022, the central bank of the People's Republic of China in the second quarter of the monetary policy implementation report on August 10 did not mention the 811 exchange reform. Instead, it is pointed out that from the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005 to the end of June 2022, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB's exchange rate to the US dollar was 23.3%, the cumulative appreciation of the euro exchange rate was 42.9%, and the cumulative appreciation of the yen exchange rate was 48.7%.

At this time, the global central banks may be the same: Jun is happy to see the appreciation of the country's currency, thereby resisting the risk of inflation. For example, the central banks of the major developed economies are tightening the monetary policy; due to the different economic cycles, the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China takes care of my internal and external balance; The influence is that the risk of world economic growth has weakened, the risk of the financial market shock and the "hard landing" of some economies is worthy of attention. It can be seen that 2022 is unusual.

Regardless of considering the epidemic cause, the RMB to the US dollar upward in 2020. Since the 811 exchange reform, the RMB has gone through four rounds of adjustments to the US dollar, and in the second quarter of the "811" in 2015, 2018, 2019, and 2022, respectively. If it focuses on 2022, it will be found that in the first half of the year, the highest intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar was 6.3014 yuan, the minimum was 6.7898 yuan, a depreciation of about 7.7%; this means that in the first half of 2022, 90%of the RMB 811 reform reform in the first half of 2022 has renovated 90%since the reform of RMB 811. Fall.

In other words, this year's strength of the US dollar index, the "prestige" that appreciated for two consecutive years failed. As at the end of June, the middle price of the RMB, the euro, the pound, and the yen exchange rate of the RMB, the depreciation of 5.0%, an appreciation of 3.0%, an appreciation of 5.8%, and an appreciation of 12.8%respectively compared with the end of 2021. But it can be seen that the renminbi is still stable, which can be described as the second strong currency outside the dollar.

In terms of extent, when foreign energy and food supply is tight, and the mismatch of supply and demand for the labor market is intensified. When domestic real estate credit is urgent, under the overall requirements of "the epidemic should be defended, the economy must stabilize, and the development is safe", the RMB exchange rate is The stability is undoubtedly enlarged and strengthened. At this time, the toughness and determination of China's economic fundamentals and renminbi are also important.

Judging from the latest export data, in the background of the global economic recession, China's exports continue to maintain a certain toughness, or partially benefited from my country's complete industrial chain, and some benefit from my country's energy cost advantages. Of course, in the climate and energy crisis, the European and American economies are "unfavorable", which may benefit the recovery of the Chinese economy in a sense.

In terms of renminbi exchange rate toughness, the status of Chinese civilian international assets and liabilities can be described as one of its sources. Before the 811 foreign exchange reform, my country's folk foreign exchange asset liabilities were mismatched; but the current foreign exchange asset liabilities have changed greatly. Including the stop -settings of the People's Bank of China in the past two years have also brought support to the RMB exchange rate.

And the 811 exchange reform mentioned by the central bank's cargo administration, or is there a seven -year itch? Looking back at the two exchange reforms in 2005 and 811, the former is "afraid of appreciation"; the latter is "afraid of depreciation", and the label that can be increased (flexible and elastic) can be pasted on the RMB exchange rate; The possibility of renminbi exchange rate depreciation is greatly reduced; why is this not a toughness?

August Weiyang. In the first half of the ups and downs, and July, in July of the recession and rehabilitation and recovery transactions, outside the bond market, the global financial market once became calm ... But is it brewing a new storm behind it?

In the era of high inflation, low growth, and high debt, the "Doctoral Dr." Ruabini and Citi jointly warned the stock market risks. It was just a man who made people. On the evening of August 10, after the announcement of the United States CPI data from 8.7%(expected to 8.7%) in July 10, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose straight, and US stocks again carnivated. Is this a problem? Citi believes that the current market optimism is similar to that in 2007, and the subsequent financial crisis caused US stocks to fall more than 50 % from a historical high.

That night, the US dollar index fell to 104, offshore RMB 6.7163 was reported to the US dollar, and the lowest report was 6.7648. The renminbi exchange rate toughness is evident. In fact, the exchange rate is only the price of the RMB, and there is another "time" price of the RMB, that is, interest rates; it can also see the toughness of the renminbi.

The problem is that the market interest rate has continued to decline recently, implying that the liquidity of the currency market is loose, mainly due to the weak demand; weaker demand and the resonance of funds accumulation.Its subtext is that the real estate market may continue to be a drag on economic growth.It shows that the necessity and urgency of stabilizing real estate is increasing; although the main tone of the monetary policy in China in the second half of the year is not to engage in large water irrigation, the domestic credit structure needs to be repaired.Until the second half of 2022, the reform of the reform of exchange rates and deepening interest rates has never stopped.When maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and exerting the role of the exchange rate regulation of the automatic stabilizer of the macroeconomic and the automatic stabilization of the international revenue and expenditure, the anchor of interest rates may be the first, because it is related to the background color of China's economic toughness.

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