PTA: This round of upside is limited

Since the low point of the stage in late July, the refined pairing of PTA acid (PTA) market has recently ushered in a strong wave of rebound rising quotes. The average price exceeded 6,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). Essence As of August 8, the PTA market reference price was 6155 yuan.

People in the industry generally believe that some PTA devices have recently led to a decrease in market supply, and terminal demand has risen slightly, driving the price of PTA. However, under the expectation of new production capacity, the rise of the PTA market may last up.

Cost raised overtime rebound

In late July, the price of the PTA reached the low point. After a brief shock, the upstream crude oil and the prices of the two toluene (PX) were driven quickly, and the two weeks increased by 6.4%.

Since the beginning of this year, crude oil prices have continued to operate high, PTA cost support has increased, and the increase in factory maintenance and the improvement of terminal demand have improved, and PTA prices have been promoted. On June 8, the average price of the PTA market reached 7,726 yuan, an increase of 65.2%year -on -year, at a high level within 3 years.

However, after the high -level consolidation, under the effect of upstream oil prices, the downstream demand of the PX market, and the weakening of downstream demand, the PTA market switches to a deep decline.

"As the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points, it was disturbed by macroelers, and the demand was expected to cause oil prices. At the same time, with the increase in PX supply and the end of the phase speculation, the PX price fell rapidly. The factory's willingness to stock up the goods is not strong. With the weakened demand, the PTA social inventory is slightly accumulated, and the price has begun to be reduced. On July 20, the price of PTA fell to 5784.17 yuan, reaching a phased low point, a decline from the high point during the year, a decline in the high point during the year. 5.14%. "Xia Ting, an analyst of business club, said.

In late July, international oil prices were still in a long and short stalemate state. Although the market was still concerned about the Fed's radical interest rate hikes, it was still concerned about the tightening of the supply and the US dollar. The stacked PTA circulation has fewer spots, forming a favorable support for the PTA market. The PTA market began to bottom out after late July, and the current average price is 6155 yuan.

Short -term supply and demand marginal improvement

Regarding the recent trend of the PTA market, industry insiders generally believe that the market supply has reduced the market supply under the condition of device maintenance, and the demand for downstream polyester has a good trend month -on -month, and the operating rate of terminal weaving has increased. On the whole, the short -term PTA supply and demand are better, forming a strong support for the market.

In terms of supply, the PTA industry plans to add 5 million tons/year to the PTA industry. From the current news, Hengli Petrochemical has a total of 4.4 million tons/year, and 650,000 tons/annual devices of Yicheng chemical fiber have maintained plans. In addition, the load of 2.25 million tons/year of Yisheng Dalian decreased to 60 % at the end of July, and the load of 2.5 million tons/year PTA device in Fujian Baihong fell to 80 % at the end of July. In addition, under the current low processing fee, it is not ruled out that the PTA device is temporarily planned for external maintenance. On August 3, the PTA industry's operating rate was 66.49%, a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month. The PTA market generally shows a contracted situation.

In terms of demand, due to the joint reduction of production reduction and upstream links in July, the situation of the terminal order improved, the cash flow improved, and the manufacturer was basically in the state of reducing the library. Essence At present, the operating rate of polyester industry is 80.61%, an increase of 3.01 percentage points from the previous month. The operating rate of the terminal weaving industry has also increased slightly. Jiangsu and Zhejiang's weaving operating rates were 56.27%, an increase of 4.82 percentage points from the previous month, forming a favorable support for the PTA market from the demand side.

However, from a macro perspective, the background of long -term weak consumption is difficult to change, and terminal demand or pressure. At the same time, the currently maintained PTA device after re -production market supply will be recovered quickly, and the production capacity of the annual maintenance plan has not been implemented for the time being.

New capacity release pressure

"The release of new production capacity in the later period will also cause a certain pressure on the PTA market." Xie Wen, a senior analyst of the Grand Futures Futures Hydrocarbon Industry Chain in the product, believes that in the second half of this year, PTA's new production capacity is under great pressure. From the current point of view, the new PTA production capacity in the third quarter is estimated to be 5 million tons/year, and the new PTA production capacity in the fourth quarter is estimated to be 7.5 million tons/year. Hengli Petrochemical 6#and 7#devices have a total of 5 million tons/annual production capacity. The annual production capacity is expected to be released in the third quarter. The 2.5 million tons/annual device of Weilian Chemistry is planned to be put into production in October. In the fourth quarter, put into production.

If the new device is put into production in the second half of the year, the PTA production capacity will reach 80 million tons/year, an increase of 18.44%year -on -year. However, it is not ruled out that under cost pressure, the new device may be extended and existing, and the existing device may be maintained in a low load state.

In terms of downstream polyester, it is expected to have about 4 million tons/annual capacity. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai 250,000 tons/year polyester filament device, Jixing chemical fiber 300,000 tons/year differentiation short fiber device, Tongkun 600,000 tons/year polyester filament device will be put into production in the fourth quarter. However, the downstream demand is still insufficient compared to the new production capacity of PTA.

- END -