The two -way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate becomes more rational

Reporter Liu Qi

So far, the "August 11" exchange reform has gone for seven years.

Over the past seven years, the People's Bank of China has continuously adjusted the mechanism for the middle price of the RMB exchange rate, and the degree of marketization has increased significantly. At present, the two -way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have become the norm, and the market has become more calm and calm on the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.

The market -oriented reform of exchange rates is still on the road, and steps are constantly. The experience since the "August 11" exchange reform shows that the decisive role of the foreign exchange market supply and demand in the formation of exchange rates has further played. The two -way floating and elasticity of the RMB exchange rate can be effectively released in a timely manner, which is conducive to stabilizing market expectations. It is necessary to continue to steadily promote the market -oriented reform of the exchange rate to better give play to the function of regulating the RMB exchange rate to regulate the function of macroeconomic and international revenue and expenditure automatic stabilizers.

The marketization of an intermediate price formation mechanism

As a breakthrough

On August 11, 2015, the People's Bank of China issued the "Statement on improving the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate" (hereinafter referred to as the "Statement"), which opened the prelude to the "8 · 11" exchange reform.

Call the time back to the reform. In 2015, the international economic and financial situation was complicated. The US economy was still in the process of recovery. The market is expected to raise interest rates within the year, leading to the continued strengthening of the US dollar. Due to the outflow of funds and the slowdown in domestic economic growth, most of the currencies of emerging market economies have experienced significant depreciation. Although my country is facing similar pressures to other emerging economies, the middle price of the RMB to the US dollar remains stable.

Data show that from July 2014 to July 2015, the US dollar index rose 22%, and the intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar exchange rate in the same period increased by 0.8%. According to the estimates of the International Clenging Bank, from July 2014 to July 2015, the nominal valid exchange rate and actual valid exchange rates appreciated by 14.3%and 14.6%, respectively, which accumulated a certain pressure of RMB depreciation.

In fact, since the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005, the intermediate price of the RMB exchange rate as the benchmark exchange rate has played an important role in guiding market expectations and stable market exchange rates. However, for a period of time before the "August 11" exchange reform, the intermediate price of the RMB exchange rate deviated from the market exchange rate and a long duration, which affected the market benchmark and authority of the middle price. Therefore, it is urgent to adjust the marketization and benchmark of the middle price to avoid excessive accumulation of imbalance.

In this context, the "August 11" exchange reform was started. According to the "Statement", in order to enhance the marketization and benchmark of the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate, the People's Bank of China decided to improve the quotation of the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate. Since August 11, 2015, before the opening of the daily inter -bank foreign exchange market, the market businessmen refer to the closing rate of the interbank foreign exchange market in the last day. Price.

Guan Tao, the chief economist of BOC Securities, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the closing price of the above day as the basis for pricing is a benchmark price formation mechanism for international traffic, which is conducive to improving the marketization of intermediate price formation The degree, maintaining the continuity and transparency of the price, increased the market benchmark of the middle price, and broaden the actual operating space of the market exchange rate.

"With the marketization of the middle price formation mechanism as a breakthrough, it has seized the bull nose that improves the overall market -oriented level of exchange rate." Guan Tao commented so.

In the eyes of more market participants, economists, etc., this reform reform not only reflects the determination of the People's Bank of China to be committed to making the market forces more role, but also actually enhances the degree of marketization and exchange rate elasticity It has also formed a logical self -consistent with my country's reform and opening up.

Market

The ability to adapt to exchange rate fluctuations is increasing

Over the past seven years, the People's Bank of China has continuously promoted the marketization of exchange rates, improved the floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, reference to a basket of currencies, and management, enhanced the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, and exerted the automatic stability of the macroeconomic and international revenue and expenditure of exchange rates. The role of the device. Pay attention to expected guidance and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

Looking at the changes in these years, Zhao Qingming, deputy dean of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, believes that the RMB exchange rate has changed the unilateral depreciation trend before the "August 11" exchange reform, which has turned to two -way fluctuations, and the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate has significantly increased.

According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, in the first half of 2022, the highest intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar was 6.3014 yuan, the lowest was 6.7898 yuan, and 58 trading days appreciated in 117 trading days and 59 trading days depreciated. The maximum single -day appreciation is 1.1%(731 points), and the maximum single -day depreciation is 1.0%(681 points). The RMB has risen to the major international currency exchange rate and floats in both directions. At the end of June, the middle price of the RMB, the euro, the pound, and the yen exchange rate depreciated by 5.0%, an appreciation of 3.0%, an appreciation of 5.8%, and an appreciation of 12.8%compared with the end of 2021.

According to Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, since the "August 11" exchange reform, the autonomy of the RMB exchange rate has increased, the formation mechanism has become more market -oriented, fluctuations are affected by external factors such as the US dollar, and the tolerance of market entities has increased to the tolerance of exchange rate fluctuations. Essence In the context of the expansion of financial openness, although the RMB trend is still affected by external factors to a certain extent, it is more driven by the domestic economic fundamentals. Wang Youxin has further stated that, especially since 2020, China's economy has taken the lead in stabilizing recovery and the smooth operation of the domestic industrial chain, which has enhanced the confidence of market entities and international investors in holding RMB assets. The correlation of correlation has declined, and the RMB international risk aversion, investment and financing currency, and reserve currency functions have been continuously strengthened. Maintaining the relatively stable and relatively stable and continuous inflow of cross -border capital has not only improved the supply and demand of foreign exchange, but also reduced the "herd effect" and panic purchase behavior when the market body fluctuated in the market. Fast recovery after short -term fluctuations.

"Over the years, companies have become more and more adaptable to the two -way fluctuations of the exchange rate, and the unilateral appreciation or depreciation has decreased significantly. It can more deeply understand the risk of exchange rates and respond calmly." It is to use foreign exchange derivatives tools to hedge exchange rate risks.

From the data disclosed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in recent years, it can be seen that the preservation ratio of corporate setting period has continued to rise, and the foreign exchange market participants have become more rational. In 2020, the company's package ratio was 17.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from 2019.

"In the first half of this year, the scale of the risk of the exchange rate of derivative products such as long -term and options exceeded 750 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 29%year -on -year. It has increased by 4.1 percentage points from the level of last year. "Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesman of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that this shows that the market entity exchange rate aversion is increasing and the ability to adapt to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is increasing.

RMB exchange rate marketization reform

It will continue to deepen steadily

The market -oriented reform of exchange rates is not a matter of overnight. From the current point of view, it is still a long -term work. It needs to be promoted step by step.

The People's Bank of China emphasized in the second quarter of 2022 issued by the 2022 Chinese monetary policy released on August 10th that "steadily deepening the market -oriented reform of exchange rates, improved the market supply and demand, refer to a basket of currency to adjust, and management floating. The exchange rate system, enhance the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen the expected management, adhere to the bottom line of thinking, do a good job of monitoring and analysis and risk prevention of cross -border funds flow, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, give full play to the macroeconomic and international revenue and expenditure of exchange rates Automatic stabilizer function ".

At the time node of the seventh anniversary of the "8 · 11" exchange reform, how to further deepen the market -oriented reform of exchange rates in the face of a more complex and severe external environment?

Guan Tao believes that in the future, we should continue to deepen the market -oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate from three aspects: first, to further improve the quotation mechanism of the intermediate price of the RMB exchange rate and improve the representativeness of the middle price; The Three -in -one "ideas to vigorously develop the domestic foreign exchange market; the third is to deal with the relationship between financial openness and exchange rate selection in the system.

"In the future, China's economic development may face a more complex and changeable external environment. As a link between the internal and external economies, the exchange rate will face more challenges." Wang Youxin said that the exchange rate reform should be steadily advanced on the basis of considering economic tolerance to prevent it from preventing the economic tolerance and preventing the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent the prevention and prevention of preventing the economic tolerance to prevent the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent it from preventing the economic tolerance and preventing the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent it from preventing the economic tolerance and preventing the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent it from preventing the economic tolerance and preventing the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent it from preventing the economic tolerance and preventing the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent the prevention and prevention of preventing the economic withdrawal to prevent the prevention of economic withdrawal to prevent the prevention of economic tolerance to prevent it to prevent the prevention and prevent it. The exchange rate has become the source of enlargement of economic fluctuations.

Wang Youxin believes that after the economic recovery is stable, you can consider further relaxation of the amplitude of the fluctuation rate of exchange rate at appropriate time, continuously optimize the intermediate price formation mechanism, and more play the decisive role of exchange rate in the allocation of foreign exchange resources. At the same time, it is necessary to retain the autonomy of exchange rate management. The direction of the RMB exchange rate reform is cleaning and floating, but cleaning and floating does not mean giving up management, retaining management methods in special circumstances, holding sufficient foreign exchange reserves, for exchange rate stability or even macro Economic and financial stability is of great significance.

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