China Export Super Forecast in July

not

Overall

China's foreign trade situation this year still faces challenges

Continue to strictly implement the State Council

Related foreign trade and stabilizing foreign investment policies are very important

China's exports exceeded expectations in July 2022, reflecting the toughness of China's exports.

According to the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7, according to the US dollar prices (the same below), China's exports in July were 18 % year -on -year, exceeding expectations, basically the same as high growth in June. The increase of 2.3 %, still weak, reflects that domestic demand recovery is still not strong; the trade surplus is 10127 billion US dollars, a record high.

The export in July exceeded expectations, on the one hand, it reflects the strong competitiveness of China's exports, and on the other hand, it also shows that the overall demand is still showing a certain toughness. In addition, the low export base in July last year also had a certain impact. In May and June of this year, China's export high growth was mainly due to the improvement of domestic logistics and supply chains. During the epidemic, foreign trade orders began to be shipped one after another, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the rise in commodity prices, etc. influences. However, in July, the impact of accelerating the digestive backlog order on exports was very weak, and it showed more export advantages of Chinese products. In addition, the impact of prices on exports is still more than the number, and the export price is still the main support for the growth rate of export value.

On August 7, the container terminal of Lianyungang Port, Jiangsu, the freighter was ready to stop the berth uninstalled container. Figure/Zhongxin

From the perspective of regions, the contribution of ASEAN and the European Union to China's exports has strengthened. In July, China ’s exports to ASEAN and the European Union were 33 % and 23 % year -on -year, respectively, and 29 % and 17 % in June, respectively. Since the beginning of this year, the proportion of ASEAN's exports has continued to grow, from 14.6 % at the end of last year to 16.0 % in July, and ASEAN's pull on China's exports has also increased from 2.4 % at the end of last year to 4.7 %. China's increase in EU exports, according to the analysis of CICC, or reflects the rise in the demand for some new energy products in China under the dilemma of EU energy supply, and the replacement of other Chinese products supply to the EU supply. Its research report believes that there are two main reasons for the European Energy Crisis. One is that Europe has adopted more radical carbon neutralization plans internally, and the other is to excessively rely on Russia's energy supply. This will increase the demand for Chinese export products in the following two aspects: high energy prices enable Europe to increase the demand for green energy, increase the demand for exports of Chinese photovoltaic products to Europe; It may bring a transfer order to China.

In addition, in July, China ’s exports to the United States were 11 % year -on -year, and 19 % of the year -on -year growth rate in June may be related to factors such as the gradual weakening of US demand and the recovery of domestic production capacity in the United States. According to the analysis of Ping An Securities Research Report, the number of non -agricultural employment in the United States reached 528,000 in July, far exceeding market expectations. At the same time The tension of the supply chain is relieved.

From the perspective of products, products such as automobiles, car chassis, and automotive parts in electromechanical products are still an important driving force for export growth. In July, the exports of automobiles and automotive parts were 64 % and 27 % year -on -year, respectively, and the growth rates of 21 % and 14 % compared with June, respectively. %, Although the growth rate of 41 % and 63 % in June has not changed much, it remains at a high level. According to CICC's calculations, in July, the export of automobiles and automobile parts exported the overall export growth rate of 1.3 %, higher than 0.5 % in June; the overall export growth rate of steel and aluminum exports was 1.4 % There is a decline.

In addition, it is mainly affected by factors such as reduction of orders. In July, the exports of Chinese ships fell by 30.5 % year-on-year. The exports of electronic products such as mobile phones, home appliances, integrated circuits, and LCD display boards were also negatively increased year-on-year, in turn-10.3 %,-- 7.7 %, -5.3 %, -5.8 %.

According to the analysis of the chief economist of Ping An Securities, China's exports can maintain a higher growth rate in July. On the one hand, the overall external demand still shows toughness. Although the demand for developed economies such as Europe and the United States has weakened and the production capacity has gradually recovered, the vast market space in developing economies such as ASEAN and other developing economies has still provided the foundation for China's exports. On the other hand, the competitiveness of China's export products is also one of the important supporting factors. With the continuous development of China's new energy vehicle technology in the past two years, the importance of automotive -related products in China's exports is an example.

Under the influence of the tightening of monetary policy, the risk of economic recession, and the fermentation of geopolitical factors, China's export prospects of developed economies such as Europe and the United States still face certain uncertainty. Therefore, whether China's export growth rate will fall again in the next few months, it is still worthy of attention.

Generally speaking, China's foreign trade situation this year still faces challenges, and it is important to continue to strictly implement the relevant foreign trade policies of the State Council's relevant foreign trade and stabilize foreign investment.

Send 2022.8.15 Total Issue 1056 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine Title: China Export Super Forecast in July

Author: Wang Xiaoxia

Operation editor: Wang Lin

- END -