The price of grain prices has fallen, and the United States and Europe are still locking on inflation

[Global Times special reporter in Germany Zhao Dong Liu Yupeng] Since August, international grain prices and crude oil prices have fallen to the level before the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict. However, the gradual cooling of the commodity market is not immediately reflected in the cost of living in the United States and European countries. After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the high inflation prospects caused by the US and European sanctions on Russia are still not optimistic. According to information released by the German Federal Bureau of Statistics on the 10th, the consumer price index (CPI) in Germany in July rose 7.5%year -on -year, almost the same as last month. The Germans have to face the reality of nearly half of the price of milk. The July CPI announced on the same day of the US Department of Labor rose 8.5%year -on -year, a new low since May 2020. However, the current US prices are still high, and the turnover of discount stores has increased by double digits.

Picture source Visual China

Food problems will not disappear

Russia's "Independence" reported on the 7th that after a record high in March, the world's grain prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive month. Russia's grain prices are also declining. The latest data from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization showed that food prices in July decreased significantly compared with the previous month, especially the cost of wheat and vegetable oil. The food price index of food and agricultural organizations that tracked a basket of food in a basket of food fell by 8.6%in July. The index fell only 2.3%in June. Wheat, soy, sugar and corn futures have fallen from the high point in March to the price in early 2022. For example, the Wheat contract was closed at $ 775.75 per puppet ear on Friday, and the nearly 1294 U.S. dollars reached in March were nearly $ 1294, close to the $ 758 price set in January.

On the 7th, the US CNBC website quoted analysts to list the decline in food prices: Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement to resume the exported grain exported by the Black Sea at the end of July; the harvest of crops of multiple countries is better than expected; the slowdown of the global economic slowdown affects market demand, and a strong dollar Essence However, it should be noted that the food price index in July is still 13.1%higher than July 2021.

The head of the International Grain Policy Research Institute, trade and institutional heads of the Institute of Food Policy believes that it is not enough to transport only a few batches of food goods in the Black Sea. The arrival of the harvesting products is transported out. "In order to help stabilize the market, the agreement needs to continue to take effect in the second half of this year, which is the period when most of the food exports of Ukraine are exported.

CNBC quoted the analysis of Karlos Mela, the director of the commodity market research director of the Dutch Cooperation Bank, saying that as long as the Russian -Ukraine conflict continues, Ukraine's arable land may continue to be destroyed, which will lead to decreased crop output next year. Consumers may continue to see the rise in food prices, because changes in commodity prices usually take 3 to 9 months to reflect on supermarket shelves.

"At present, the global grain market is very complicated, especially wheat." The "Independence" quoted Russian Agricultural Minister Patrushev said that Russia's grain output may not exceed 130 million tons this year. Especially rainfall and windy weather in some areas. Under the current circumstances, the burden on agricultural machinery has increased greatly, and foreign machinery is difficult to supply parts. 2022-2023 Agricultural year, world food security is facing severe risks. As of August 4, Russia has harvested 56.5 million tons of food, a decrease of 8 million tons from the same period last year. Russia can ensure that their markets will not have problems, but they will re -consider the grain export plan. This may have a negative impact on the global grain market. Ostapkovic, director of the Russian HSE Market Research Center, believes that there may be shortage in the world's grain market next year.

Russia reported on the 7th today that the heads of the US International Development Agency accused Russia of providing the world's food crisis. Ambassador Antonov in the United States said that it is ridiculous to blame Russia to blame the food crisis on Russia. According to Brosun, an expert at the Safety Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, despite Russia's efforts in the field of grain safety, the United States deliberately exaggerated the issue of impacting sanctions on Russian grain transportation -related companies through the problem of Ukraine's grain through Black Sea Port. The United States has its main responsibility for disturbing the world's supply chain and food supply.

The United States does not let go of Russian oil

This week, the prices of the main futures contract of Sedexas medium crude oil (WTI) in the United States have fallen below $ 90/barrel, which is more than 27%compared to the 123 yuan/barrel of June high. However, the analysis shows that international oil prices are not really falling into the decline, and many industrial investors believe that international crude oil is not completely falling into a "bear market." The main reason is that the global oil market inventory is at a low level as a whole. The unstable situation of the supply side and OPEC+still insist on controlling production.

The "Independence" stated that the ministers participating in the OPEC+agreement decided to increase the oil output quota in September only 100,000 barrels per day. This shows that OPEC+ignores the demands of the United States to increase its output to deprive Russian oil income.

Today's Russian website quoted Russia Freedom Finance Global analyst Millyccartova that if G7 implements a limited price on oil exports of Russia, Russia will stop oil exports. In this case, oil prices are likely to rise to 150 per barrel 150 per barrel. US dollar or higher. The rise in oil prices in the past six months has led to the sharp rise in US fuel costs and the acceleration of inflation. Miligaconova said that Bayeng government lobby Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, but Saudi Arabia obviously does not increase oil output at the expense of Russia. Russian FG FINAM analyst Potavin said that the world today does not replace Russian energy production capacity. Beginning in August, it is expected that oil prices will fluctuate between $ 98-113 per barrel by the end of the year. If the market is affected by other factors, the price may be higher. At the same time, the situation in Russia is still directly affecting energy supply. Today, Russia's website quoted Russian oil pipeline transportation on the 9th that Ukrainian national oil pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta once stopped sending Russian crude oil to the EU through the southern branch of the "Friendship" oil pipeline, triggering international oil prices on the day.

The impact of price increases continues

"Is inflation?" The German "Business Daily" said on the 9th that some economists agreed to the judgment of inflation, but they believed that there was still great uncertainty in the future. According to data from the US Retail Analysis Company (IRI), inflation soaring is seriously affected by American catering expenditures. In July, the price of eggs in American food grocery stores soared 47%year -on -year. At the same time, the price of butter rose by 26%year -on -year, the price of packaging bread rose 15%, frozen food rose 23%, and the quick -frozen Besa rose 18%.

According to Germany, the Russian -Ukraine conflict caused the surge in energy prices and rising food prices to promote the inflation of Germany, the largest economy in Europe for a period of time, and reduced the purchasing power of consumers. The German Telecom News Network said on the 9th that the consumer price index of the German Federal Statistics Bureau contains more than 650 different types of products. In July, food prices rose particularly large, reaching 14.8%. The survey shows that the rise in fruits and vegetables is particularly obvious: the price of peppers has risen by 30%in the past 4 weeks, and now the price per kilogram is 2.98 euros. The onion is 11%expensive, and potatoes are even 17%expensive. The price of organic whole milk rose half compared with the previous month.

The German media quoted Andlian economist Catherine Utimore, saying that she believes that the euro area inflation record will continue until September. "The preliminary trend of inflation development may not appear until the last quarter of 2022." Christian Keller, Chief Economist of Bank of the United Kingdom, also has a similar view. "For the euro zone, we expect the overall annual inflation rate to reach a peak of 9.6%in September."

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