The pig farmers realized 1.6 million in two months! The pig price rebounded and hidden in the four major changes.

Wind Financial Reporter Wang Hao

Recently, in addition to the temperature, there are also pig prices.

According to data from the Price Monitoring Center of the Development and Reform Commission, in the first week of August, the average appearance price of pigs nationwide was 22.07 yuan/kg. Compared with the same period in April, the rise has risen more than 60 %. At the same time, for a year, the expected profitability of pig farming has been expected to lose more than 600 yuan from the beginning, and the current average profit of the current head is more than 800 yuan. This profit can be almost comparable to the relatively high period of pig price of more than 30 yuan/kg in February last year.

The new round of "pig cycle" seems to be on the string. The reporter's interview found that many pig breeders have now opened the production capacity "full" model, and some people rely on secondary fattening to "earn differences" and realize 1.6 million in two months. However, the prosperity is also dark. Some people in the industry believe that in July and August, it is not a traditional peak season, and this round of rise is a bit "abnormal". In the context of the national series of "pig cycles" smooth policy, pig farming is also shifting from "equivalent market" to "spelling costs".

Market change

Pig price "high fever" is "full of production capacity" for pigs.

As we all know, the price of pigs has begun to fall since the peak of January last year, and the market generally believes that entering the "pig cycle" downward period. Although there have been several rebounds since then, the trend is both short and flat. The farmers can only struggle desperately at a balance and loss point, which means "wolf comes".

However, this round of pig prices seems to be different from the past. According to data from the Development and Reform Commission, as of the first week of August, at the price and cost, the average profitability of pig farming in the future was 813.12 yuan. Compared with the previous caliber data, it can be found that this is the most violent and lasting one since the pig raising the "losing money model" in May last year. Among them, pig prices have risen by more than 60 % since the rebounding in April, and the expected profitability has also returned to the initial level of pig prices in February last year.

Can pig prices continue to rebound? The breeding end has made a choice. Data show that from April to July 2022, more than 3,500 newly added pig breeding enterprises across the country, and the average monthly growth rate of new registered companies reached 46.3%. It is not difficult to find that the growth rate has surpassed the increase in pig prices.

Picture source: Visual China

"My two pig farms are currently in a full load, with nearly 4,000 deposits." Li Qian (pseudonym), Qingdao Laixi farmers, adopted the fattening model. In June this year, the price of pigs rose back. The price of the head is purchased. He said that his operation was a "bottom -up", because according to the cost of feed and pig seedlings, his current breeding cost was 7.3 yuan/jin, and the recent pig price of pigs exceeded the 10 yuan mark per catty.

Another farmers of the self -cultivation model are more optimistic. He told reporters that the pig farm has 10,000 heads at present, and it is expected to be full after two or three months, and the annual column can reach 30,000 heads. Not only the existing pig farms have worked hard to expand production, he recently set a new pig farm. "It is expected that in March next year, the production capacity can be doubled, from 30,000 to 60,000 heads."

The rise in pig prices has risen, not only the enthusiasm of pigs, but also touched the "DNA" of related companies in the industry chain. Song Xiuyu, the person in charge of the Qingdao Pai Ru Ru Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that as a breeding and supporting industry, the pig price market has a great impact on the livestock and poultry breeding equipment industry. After more than a year of downturn, pig prices have rebounded in the near future, which also allows them The order is obviously bullish. "In the same period of last year, our new orders were almost zero, and this year's customer investment enthusiasm has increased significantly, and the number of receptions and signing orders has increased accordingly."

Change of benefits

The breeding mode "Upper New" has realized 1.6 million months in two months.

Pig prices rose and the market is active, but for pig farmers, whether it can succeed in "locking" benefits is still shocked.

Right now, Li Qian's pigs have been raised to about 60 kg, and three months will be in batches according to factors such as market prices and weight after mid -November. In the past, at that time, it was the traditional peak season at the end of the year. The price of pigs was more secure in the year. Even in the cycle of pig prices continued to fall last year, there was a more obvious rebound in the fourth quarter. However, this time Li Qian was not sure, and even a little bit bottomed out.

"This year's market is a bit abnormal." He told reporters that in July and August, it was a relatively "pig price depression" in the year. Essence For the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter of the card, Li Qian took the clear land in the first half of the year, and purchased the pig seedlings at one time, but it was not possible to rose suddenly. Sold, you can only "look at the pig and sigh." Now watching himself a pig who can only go out for nearly three months. Li Qian was worried that the price of the pig's price may be overwhelmed at the end of the year, which caused him to "fall into the empty".

Picture source: Visual China

Unlike Li Qian's uneasiness, Zhang Qi (pseudonym) has been settled. In fact, the breeding cycle after the pigs out of the pigs are 150-180 days. Due to this constraint, the purchase of pigs and fertilizers in the purchase of pigs will be affected by a greater price fluctuation risk. The reporter's investigation found that in recent years, many pig farmers will choose to accelerate the column through the secondary fattening model and obtain short -term economic revenue. The so -called secondary fertilizer means that farmers buy normal outlet pigs, re -enhanced them, and earn different prices from them. Zhang Qi is one of them.

6月份，他以7元/斤的成本价购入3200头已经达到出栏标准的生猪，“当时每头体重已经达到120公斤，计划养两个月，差不多180斤出栏。”最终，张奇以The price of 9.3 catties was successfully shot, and the cost of shaving the feed, a total of about 1.6 million yuan. “二次育肥的好处是可以随时变现，赶上猪价上涨，随时可以锁定收益。”有业内人士告诉记者，虽然这一模式近年来受到不少养猪人的追捧，但是弊端同样明显，因为This model follows the "technical route", depending on the precise prediction of market trends, and once the pig's price hovers long for a long time, it will not even rise and fall.

Changes in the cycle

The production capacity continues to stabilize the "pig cycle" to become more blurred

In the market economy, affected by various factors, there is a cycle change in any industry. However, for pig farming, this cycle has attracted much attention for many years because of its excessive price changes. For example, the African swine fever in 2019 has greatly affected the price of pork. The price of pork rose from 16 yuan per kilogram in mid -2018 to 56 yuan per kilogram at the end of 2019, becoming the largest "pig cycle" increase in the past. Essence

On the other hand, does the price of pigs "do not light off the off -season", does it mean that there is a turning point of a "pig cycle"? As a practitioner, in front of Li's view, compared with the past, the "pig cycle" is gradually blurred. "Before 2020, each pig cycle lasts two and a half years to three and a half years, and the price trend is very clear." However, in the past two years, his biggest feeling is "invisible", the cycle has become shorter, and the short -term market has increased. Power and anti -risk ability ".

Picture source: Visual China

If you return to the basic aspect of production capacity, you will find that the foundation of pig prices "Fu Shao goes straight" does not exist. Data show that as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the amount of sow can be 42.77 million, an increase of 2.2%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 6.3%, which is equivalent to 104.3%of the normal preservation. The production capacity is normal and is in a green area. From the perspective of the number of new piglets, the number of new piglets in the first half of the year is equivalent to the same period last year, indicating that the number of pigs in the second half of the year will not be less than last year. From the perspective of the number of Chinese pigs, the number of Chinese pigs over May in June increased by 8%year -on -year. In July and August, the supply of pigs and pork production will increase steadily. All of the above data show that the supply of fat pigs in the second half of the year is guaranteed.

So, what is the rise of this round of pig prices? Chen Guanghua, the head of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that in general, the rise of this round of pig prices is mainly to recover, seasonality, and superimposed some special factors. "From the perspective of breeding benefits, pig prices are generally sluggish in the first half of this year. Most farms (households) are losing money, and the appropriate increase in price is conducive to the sustainable development of the pig industry. In addition, from the cost of breeding, the prices of corn and soybean meal have continued to rise. One kilogram of fat pigs increased by about 1 yuan over the same period last year, which also has a certain role in promoting pig prices. In addition, there are some special factors that pig prices have risen rapidly. Repeated work, social catering gradually liberalized, pork consumption increased significantly, driving the price of pigs to rise rapidly. "

Change of industry

From "waiting for the market" to "spelling cost" low -carbon -saving pig house

The "Pig Cycle" bid farewell to the ups and downs, and may be "witnessing history". At the policy level, my country is exploring the development of pig production capacity regulation and control. Through the formation of "Opinions" and "Plan", it is clear that the normality, minimum insurance quantity, and large -scale pig farms are available in the country and provinces. Regulate the responsibility, establish different levels of production capacity regulation and control bases, and stabilize the development of pig production. It is reported that my country has established and announced 12,000 national and provincial pig production capacity regulation bases, and the number of pigs in these bases accounts for one -third of the country's total. According to the latest data, the proportion of the annual column over 500 retail investors has dropped to less than 40%.

"In the past, pigs were looking at the market, and in the future, it was a spelling cost." A senior industry insiders admitted that the breeding industry represented by pig farming is undergoing different previous transformation and upgrading. "In the past, when the peak of the pig cycle, a pig could earn 5,000 yuan, which is obviously not conducive to the continuous development of the entire industry." He believes that under the guidance of a series of "pig cycle" smooth policies, the "window period" of pig farming transformation and upgrading It has been opened, and practitioners are making fast money from the past, and cost -reducing costs and efficiency in daily management to seek long -term and stable returns. "For example, for the self -cultivation model, the total output of a sow of a sow of ordinary small and medium -sized farmers may be only 16 to 20 heads a year. The breeding results such as the survival rate of piglets will be greatly improved. A sow can produce 2.5 nests a year, reaching more than thirty. In this way, productivity and economic benefits will be greatly improved. "

The return cost of pig farming also gives more development opportunities for related industries. "This year's smart tank, intelligent bed, and intelligent environmental control have been recognized by the market and sell well." Song Xiuyu told reporters that the main business of the business business provides low -carbon intelligent farming equipment including pig farming and pig farming. Solutions, a pig farm that has been designed with 3,000 sows recently to find them, hoping to hand over the intelligent core equipment to the enterprise for doing it, the order value reaches 10 million yuan. In fact, because the industry is in the initial stage of development, and the cost of fakes in traditional breeding equipment is high, the promotion of intelligent farming equipment faces many difficulties. However, Song Xiuyu said that the situation in the past two years is gradually changing. Many traditional pig houses have taken the initiative to seek transformation and upgrade. The intelligent upgrade of low -carbon energy saving has become the "standard" of pig house transformation. Essence

Take their independently developed ultra -low energy consumption of energy -saving pig houses as an example. For intelligent equipment and technology applications, the construction cost of 300 sows with 300 sows is 360,000 yuan higher than the traditional pig house construction cost, but the energy consumption operation cost of energy -saving pigs is only 32.3%of traditional pig houses. At the same time, the energy -saving pig house is fully controlled, and the annual labor costs saved are 210,000. "The pig farmers are increasingly paying attention to cost control. At the same time, this industry is still in the starting stage of transformation and upgrading. Our supporting industry has provided room for growth. "Song Xiuyu said.

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