Daily discussing gold | Eagle rate rate hikes, difficult to block the pace of gold prices

Guest: Gold Investment Analyst Zhang Bo

In the week of August 1, the international gold price continued to oscillate, and the highest touched $ 1795/ounce in the middle of the week, and finally closed at $ 1775/ounce. Last Friday night, it was far better than expected non -agricultural employment data that made the gold price a short -term decrease of $ 20.

Last Friday night, the July non -agricultural data released by the US Department of Labor increased 528,000 jobs, which performed strongly, higher than the expected increase of 258,000, and the unemployment rate also dropped from 3.6%to 3.5%. These two The data returned to the level before the outbreak of the US -Europe outbreak in 2020. After the data is announced, the price of gold is under pressure. The market believes that such a strong employment data will support the Federal Reserve's follow -up will once again strongly raise interest rates. However, the United States does not catch a cold inside the United States, and some voices accuses non -agricultural data from having too heavy marks. It is believed that this is the data needed for the Democratic government to face the upcoming US midterm elections.

The decline after the announcement of the gold price recovery data on Monday shows that the market has questioned the credibility of the data. From the overall analysis, when heavy data such as GDP, PMI, and consumer confidence index in the United States have fallen, the employment data has risen sharply, which will not make the market completely convinced, and the market will cause some differences. It is expected that before the US midterm elections, the illustrations of economic data in the United States will become more and more prominent, and some economic data will be more distorted. This will cause certain interference to the global financial market. Don't be banded by fake data.

In the middle and long term, the core inflation of the United States is still high, and the supply chain bottleneck duration is also exceeded. Although the Fed's monetary policy is still partial, it has been accelerated and tightened. Political uncertainty is still increasing, and the enthusiasm of gold configuration will be ignited again.

Looking forward to this week, the U.S. CPI consumer inflation data released on Wednesday night will indicate the direction of 50 basis points in September or 75 basis points. It is expected that the market will be more cautious before the announcement of the US CPI data. Considering that the latest value of non -agricultural data last week is seriously deviated from the expected value, this data forward will not be too dependent on the expected value of the institution.

From a technical point of view, the price of gold is concerned about $ 1780/ounce this week. After the CPI data was announced on Wednesday, if it can be maintained at this position, the upward target is concerned about $ 1815/ounce to $ 1820/ounce. Continue to pay attention to the support of $ 1765/ounce to $ 1750/ounce. In terms of specific operations, it is recommended to rely on the support position below, and continue to adopt low -level transaction strategies for low and high -suction.

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