Is American non -agricultural data true or false?

Original Li Yongda China Gold Network 2022-08-08 17:23 Published on Beijing

In July, the non -agricultural employment data in the United States was unexpectedly strengthened. The original expected employment positions decreased by 250,000. In fact, it rose to a high level of nearly 5 months, and the unemployment rate also dropped from 3.6%to 3.5%. International gold prices are under pressure after the data announcement. Because the market believes that strong employment data will support the Fed's continuous interest rate hike to suppress inflation, US President Biden then said that non -agricultural employment data proves that the United States has not fallen into economic recession.

Text | British Finance Li Yongda

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

There is a gap between non -agricultural results. It is not surprising. If the data of the outbreak of the epidemic is retrospective, the error can be said to be more than half. However, in the recent situation of consumption confidence in the United States and the background of domestic GDP, employment data has rebounded sharply. Can the United States not fall into economic recession? Is this result credible?

Although American non -agricultural data statistics seem to be scientific and conduct census for companies and individuals, the methods and processes of survey can have a lot of cat greasy, such as visiting enterprises in a relatively boom in the stock market, or in better weather, in employment in employment, in employment in employment. Consultation agencies or banks can make good results. Basically, there are two types of market research respected in the West. One is to seek the truth from the scientific outlook, and the other is preset first, and the research institution tries to create the results. The non -agricultural employment data of the United States clearly regulates the two, mainly depending on the need. In the face of the climax period of the mid -term election, this guiding survey led by the Democratic Ministry of Labor is not impossible.

However, even if the employment data is not greasy, the results of employment positions have risen, which may not necessarily reflect the strong economy.

From the perspective of behavioral psychology, most U.S. job seekers and people who have left the workplace will increase the chance of recession in the future. In order to avoid finding a job in the future, it will reduce the requirements for job search. It is expected to return to employment as soon as possible. The market, coupled with inflation pressure and the weakness of the stock market, also forced a large number of originals to return to the employment market because of financial pressure. Looking back at the data of the past economic recession in the United States, before the previous economic crisis, it is also found that the employment data at the same time was rejuvenated before the economy entered the recession.

Based on the outbreak position, more than 4 million older employment is still out of the market. The market vacancies are sufficient, but the hobbies have not applied. Coupled with the continuous rebound of the US financial market and rescue subsidies, many people choose to stay at home because of the epidemic. The original intention is to wait for the market environment to turn the employment market. Although the imagination is beautiful, the reality is cruel.

In the past two months, a number of forward -looking economic data has returned, and the US GDP shrinks for two consecutive seasons, which also crack down on the patience of the aged agencies. Under the pressure of inflation, the decline in American household deposits and the rise of the borrowing index also reflect the family economy, which also reflects the family economy The increase in pressure also forced job seekers to adjust the treatment requirements, because if the economy gradually goes downhill, the later the employment market is more than that, the greater the pressure on the work.

In addition, in July, it was close to the end of the self -driving season in the United States in July. The hedonal job seekers often fiscal overdraft during the long holiday, forcing to re -enter work after the long holiday, and it was also a normal market behavior, and the relevant behavior may be postponed to August.

Of course, employment data has been greatly strengthened, which is also related to the climax of the mid -term selection. During August to November, the Democratic Party and Republican Party of the United States will be selected in the mid -term. In addition It is normal for the Democratic Party to be here. Democratic parties and individuals may also provide misleading information if they are investigated by the Ministry of Labor.

The author believes that this non -agricultural result failed to exclude the expectations of the US economy, but the expectation of interest rate hikes will undoubtedly crack down on gold prices. Of course, the market needs to pay attention to changes in the expectations of interest rate hikes, and we must also pay attention to other risk and emotional changes.

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