The demand for risk aversion has been pushed up. Can gold prices be further borrowed from Dongfeng?

Original Wang Yulin China Gold Network 2022-08-08 17:23 Published on Beijing

In July, the Fed's Pigeon statement and the US GDP (GDP) data continued to shrink in the second quarter, causing the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectation to cool down on August 1st. On August 8th, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to be on August 8th. The producer price index (PPI) data and global risk aversion have become the main line of market transaction. Risk emotions support gold price oscillation.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Month Line

American CPI data continuously high picture Source: Sina Finance

Text | Recruiting Jin Refining Wang Yulin

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

On August 1st, the most concerned about the market was non -agricultural employment data. The US Department of Labor announced that the non -agricultural employment population in July was 528,000, which was unexpectedly strong, far higher than the expected increase of 258,000. Although the US GDP data shrinks, the unemployment rate has fallen to the level before the epidemic. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, expected to be 3.6%; salary increases were higher than expected, an increase of 0.5%month -on -month, an increase of 5.2%over the same period last year. Non -agricultural data in July showed that the demand for labor was still strong, alleviating concerns about economic recession, and supporting the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates to control inflation. Gold prices that rushed up to $ 1794/ounce and were only one step away from $ 1,800, and it encountered a tone of non -agricultural data.

The decline in the new order rate in the United States has caused the market to doubt the development of the US economy, and the economic recession has resurrected, especially the American GDP has shrunk for two consecutive quarters. Many Federal Reserve officials have stated that they support 50 bases in September, and said that the Fed needs more evidence to prove whether inflation has seen and falling. Market traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate hikes in September to a 50 -basis point probability of further increase to 66.5%. On August 10, US CPI data and US PPI data on August 11 may provide guidelines for the Fed's next policy.

A series of errors in the United States may induce many market risks such as geopolitical situations, economic recession crisis, and supply chain crisis. At present, the US monetary policy and foreign policies are all affecting the world, making the market -shelter demand atmosphere strong.

The Bank of England raised interest rates to 50 basis points to 1.75%, the maximum interest rate hike in 27 years, reaching the highest interest rate level since December 2008. In the future, more countries and regions will join the ranks of interest rate hikes. Essence

Technically, international gold has risen since the fall of $ 1680/ounce on July 22, and the daily line is blocked by 1,800 US dollars/ounce. The rebound is slightly fatigue. If the international gold can be tested again and stabilizes 1680 ~ 1700 US dollars per ounce, and build an effective W bottom, it will be a good time to build a position. Otherwise, the price of gold may be further down.

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