21 depth ｜ Super expected performance does not break the bottleneck of growth, Gujing Gongjiu is difficult to enjoy the white wine faucet valuation premium

21st Century Business Herald reporter Sun Yu Beijing report

Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ) is the brightest company in the A -share liquor sector since August.

In the first trading week in August, under the market that occupied the C position in the military industry and the TMT sector, Gujing Gongjiu's stock price rose 18.64%.

The main reason for the rise is from the first half of the performance report released after the market on July 29. The release of this performance express report can be said to have caused causes.

On July 29th, a sudden plunge in the white wine sector, Gujing Gongjiu was not spared. The volume plummeted by 7.60%in a single day, the stock price of the shaking of two months near 230 yuan suddenly broke.

In the disclosure season of the interim report, investors were worried about whether it would be a mine company thunderstorm. Therefore, the performance report released by Gujing Gongjiu after the market has a meaning to respond to the fluctuation of stock prices.

Fortunately, the performance of Gujing Gongjiu in the first half of the year was more eye -catching. On August 1, the daily limit soon after the opening of Gujing Gongjiu, and the stock price of last week was "lost" in less than 5 minutes.

The performance of the first half of the year exceeded expectations

In a sense, the performance of Gujing Gongjiu after July 29th, the response was not just the day.

Gujing Gongjiu's move is also in response to the previous market sound. On July 25, Haitong International released a research report entitled "Three Challenges under the High Valuation", which refers to the Gonggong wine that has risen all the way since April.

Haitong International maintained the target price of 190 yuan in 2022, and lowered investment rating to "weaker than the city." Based on the closing price of 234.27 yuan on July 25th on July 25, Haitong International's decline space is approximately 20%.

In the research industry that generally sings more, it is not common for such a clear flag. As a result, the report was released as soon as the release of the report caused heated market debate. In addition, the company has plummeted a few days after the report was released. Standing in the ancient Jing Gongjiu at the end of July, it was urgent to stabilize market confidence in the first half of the year.

Fortunately, Gujing Gongjiu did hand over an excellent interim transcript.

In the first half of this year, Gujing realized total operating income of 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 28.46%year -on -year; net profit attributable to mother was 1.919 billion yuan, an increase of 39.17%year -on -year. The excellent performance of the income end is mainly due to the volume of low -end items such as gifts and ancient 5.

Based on this calculation, Gujing Gongjiu achieved total operating income of 3.73 billion yuan in the second quarter, an increase of 29.6%year -on -year; net profit attributable to mothers was 820 million yuan, an increase of 45.3%year -on -year.

In the second quarter, more than 40 % of the net profit increased, which verified the feedback information of some previous institutions and media market research.

In the second quarter, Anhui Province, which was not affected by the epidemic this year, also broke out. In various investigations, Gujing Gongjiu was considered the one with the best growth in Anhui liquor this year.

For example, in the Eighth Wine Channel Survey School in early July, the relevant person interviewed pointed out that the annual progress of Gujing Gongjiu is the best, and the order progress has been completed by 75%, which has reached the "best over the years, including the ancient wells of the past, including the plasma of the ancient wells of the past, including the ancient wells of the past, including the plasma of the ancient well. The years of listing ".

At the time, the person believed that the overall order rhythm of the second quarter of Gujing Gongjiu maintained a growth of about 20%. Most of the pre -collection funds reserved in the first quarter were superimated. In the second quarter, Gujing's income profits could be expected.

The improvement of profitability is a highlight of Gujing Gongjiu's performance in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the net interest rate of Gujing Gongjin was 21.3%, an increase of 1.64%year -on -year. Among them, the net interest rate in the second quarter increased by 2.4%year -on -year and 1.2%from the previous month to 22.0%. The net interest rate in the single quarter reached a record high.

At the end of the first half of the year, Gujing Gongjiu has successfully completed the annual plan for more than half. In the annual report of 2021, the target of 2022 set by Gujing Gongjiu was to achieve operating income of 15.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.30%year -on -year; the total profit was 3.550 billion yuan, an increase of 11.94%year -on -year.

In addition, the company still has a large scale of contract liabilities. As of the end of the second quarter, the amount of liabilities of the Gujing Gongjiu contract was 3.428 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 54.83%.

Growth difficulty matching high valuation

The super -expected performance of Gujing Gongjiu in the first half of the year was fully reflected in the stock price increase after performance release.

As of the close of August 9, Gujing Gongjiu's stock price has reached 254.51 yuan/share. This price has dropped the target price given by Haitong International from far away, and even increased the latest target price given by many sellers.

Although Gujing Gongjiu won a lot of funds in the short term, this does not mean that it can rely on a performance fast report to win the victory of Haitong International.

Haitong International analyzed the operating situation of Gujing Gongjiu this year in the research report, and stated that the company's income growth and contract liabilities were changing.

Haitong International believes that due to the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the revenue growth rate of Gujing Gongjiu in the second quarter was predicting the low and middle -digit doubles, and both contract liabilities and receivable financing fell.

According to the performance data released by Gujing Gongjiu, the revenue growth rate of 29.6%in the second quarter, and the contract liabilities of 1.26 billion yuan (27%from a month -on -month decrease) contract liabilities, all confirmed Haitong International's forecast.

Compared with short -term performance, Haitong International's comments on the long -term operating conditions of Gujing Gongjiu are more acute.

Haitong International proposed three challenges, which are the slowdown in the core market growth, and the expansion of the province still needs to be tested; the amount of pulp in the year is weak, and the price contribution may narrow; Difficult to exceed expectations. In terms of above, some operating data of Gujing Gongjiu in the first half of the year are improving. For example, Haitong International pointed out that the company's net interest rate was reduced from 20.1%in 2019 to 17.3%in 2021, and the net interest rate in the first half of 2022 showed that the company's profit level has rebounded.

Two main reasons that promote the improvement of the company's profitability are the decline in the company's expense rate and the optimization of product structure. For the former, Haitong International's "dislike" ancient wells in the past five years of sales expense rates have only been "0.1-0.3 percentage points". Considering the potential impact of the epidemic in the first half of this year on the company's expenses and the company's reform measures, the decline in the data on the central report is expected to exceed previous years.

For the latter, in the first half of this year, the main force of Gujing Gongjiu's product structure is the main force of the year's pulp series. Cathay Junan Securities and Food and Beverage Industry Chief Analysts said that the growth rate of the company's ancient 8 or above (all belongs to the year's slurry series) is still significantly ahead of the items below ancient 8.

However, the improvement of some operating data does not mean that the growth of Gujing Gong has changed to suffering from its valuation level, and this is the core of Haitong International's question.

During Haitong International Writing Report, Gujing Gongjiu's P / E ratio (TTM, the same latter) was 47.7, second only to Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH, P / E ratio 51.9) in the A -share liquor sector. Haitong International refers to A shares comparable company, and believes that Gujing Gongjiu is worth 35 times PE in 2022.

After entering August, the P / E ratio of Gujing Gongjiu has reached 52.10 (as of August 9), and now he is at the forefront of the liquor sector. The high -growth requirements corresponding to this valuation level may make it difficult for Gujing Gongjiu to fight: at least in the first half of the year, Gujing Gongjiu is just a regional leading wine company. The company's expansion in other provinces does not have a significant highlight.

The growth of outside province has not exploded

As the leader of Anhui Liquor, advanced provinces and nationwide are not only the development goals of Gujing Gongjiu, but also one of the most important logic of investing in Gujing Gong in the secondary market.

With the geographical advantage of the origin of the origin, Gujing Gongjiu has slowly penetrated into adjacent provinces in the past few years, and at the same time acquired Hubei Yellow Crane Tower.

A Gujing Gongjiu person told reporters that the company's foreign markets now focus on Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei.

After years of hard work, the company's expansion of some foreign core markets has begun to take shape. For example, the Henan market has reached a scale of 1 billion yuan, and Jiangsu is not far from this level.

In the first half of this year, the growth of Gujing Gongjiu's province did not show high growth. The aforementioned Gujing Gongjiu did not disclose the specific growth of foreign markets to reporters. According to the predictions of Xingye Securities and other institutions, the growth rate of the province's foreign markets in the province of Gujing Gongjiu in the first half of the year was about 30%-40%.

Although this data is higher than the province's market, it has not opened a significant gap. Compared with the core market outside the province in the past few years, the data in the first half of this year did not reach the "explosive volume" level. According to Haitong International Calculation, if the revenue and related transactions of the Yellow Crane Tower are not considered, from 2016 to 2021, the compound annual growth rate of the annual revenue growth rate of the Central China in Anhui, Henan, and Jiangsu was 13.3%. South China is 25.4%and 18.0%, respectively.

In this regard, a senior analyst told reporters that the sacrum series has a certain sales in Nanjing, but the overall competitiveness in other regions is still insufficient.

On the other hand, the competition situation faced in Anhui Province is not better than the province. Challengers from inside and outside the province have been launching an attack on Gujing Gongjiu.

In the province, giving a tribute (603198.SH) is the biggest threat in the near future. The "Cave Tibetan" series of the mid -to -high -end price bands of the driving driver has been rapidly capacity since 2020. The company has handed over the expected financial report, and the growth rate even won the average level of sub -high -end liquor.

Since the rise of Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu has been fiercely attacked and defensive. The Huijiu investigation minutes mentioned above stated that Gujing's key defense is still giving tribute. The measure is "replacement can be replaced. In the cigarette hotel channel, "Gujing continues to reward outlets that do not sell tribute, especially core outlets."

Overseas provinces are also staring at Anhui's liquor consumption province. Some high -end and sub -high -end liquor occupies a lot of market share in Anhui.

For example, the self -media wine and food survey shows that Wuliangye (000858.SZ) is the fastest -growing wine company in Anhui market in 2021, with a total sales of about 3 billion yuan (including series of wine); followed by Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH) , Anhui market sales are about 2 billion yuan (including series of wine).

It can be seen that whether it is inside or outside the province, the competition pattern facing Gujing Gongjiu is not easy. To maintain the current ranking and valuation sector rankings, Gujing Gongjiu needs to maintain the dominance of the province and enhance the competitiveness of outside province.

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